NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 12

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 12. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 12

1. Kansas City Chiefs (25.54)
2. Atlanta Falcons (22.74)
3. Cleveland Browns (22.67)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (22.66)
5. Los Angeles Rams (22.60)
6. Buffalo Bills (22.18)

My Personal Top Stacks:

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Miami Dolphins
3. Los Angeles Chargers
4. Buffalo Bills

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes – Lock button for me on Patrick Mahomes and this afternoon hammer of a football game with the highest total on the slate (56 points). Mahomes is hardly coming in over 10% in ownership projections when he should be 20-30%. I cannot think of one reason to fade him.
   
2. Kyler Murray – The only other Quarterback with as high of a floor and ceiling as Patrick Mahomes is Kyler Murray. Everyone is going to flock to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert and completely overlook Kyler Murray. Everything I’ve read said the shoulder is good to go so I’ll take a shot on arguably the best fantasy QB of 2020 at 3-5% ownership.
   
   Honorable Mention: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cam Newton, Derek Carr

Running Backs

1. Nick Chubb – All throughout the week I thought everyone would be on Nick Chubb this week but that just isn’t the case I guess. Chubb should come into this juicy matchup ~10% in ownership and be one of the few running backs on this slate that accumulate 20 touches. Cleveland showing up as number 3 on the Adjusted Expected Teams Total tool was also a sealing of the Nick Chubb deal for me.
   
2. Derrick Henry – 10% owned Derrick Henry will always intrigue me. Especially against a Colts’ defense that is missing key run stoppers like DeForest Buckner, Denico Autry, and Bobby Okereke. This is not going to be the same stingy run defense you see on a weekly basis from the Colts.
   
3. Alvin Kamara – I know I didn’t like what I saw out of the new offense with Taysom Hill last week, but anytime Kamara is under 5% in ownership, you need to really think about rostering him. Denver has been solid against the run, but nothing too special (allowing 4.3 yards per carry) and will be without a starting NFL quarterback in this one… if that doesn’t make for a 50+ rush attempt gamescript for New Orleans than I don’t know what does.
   
   We’ll see a lot of Taysom Hill and Lat Murray, but this is a game where Kamara could easily go for 25+ fantasy points and no one plays him. What better way to build a NFL DFS GPP lineup?
   
   My only concern is this is the lowest receiving prop we’ve likely ever since for Alvin Kamara and that has to stand for something (3.5 catches, 28.5 receiving yards… that’s crazy low for him). There is NOTHING safe about Kamara tomorrow. Please know that.
   
4. Leonard Fournette – With how much I love Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense this week, I am dying to run it back on the other side with 1-2 Buccaneers. With the Chiefs as a 3.5 favorite and a game total over 56 points, this seems like a gamescript Leonard Fournette should thrive in.
   
   We all saw what McCaffrey did to this soft interior Chiefs’ defense… so at his price point and little-to-no ownership, I will have a ton of Fournette. I know he isn’t CMC by any means, but he’s only $4,900 on DraftKings.
   
   Honorable Mention: Kenyan Drake, Wayne Gallman, Raheem Mostert

Wide Receivers

1. Tyreek Hill – Just give me all of the Chiefs’ stacks I can create this week. This Bucs’ secondary just got shredded by Jared Goff and are now without Jamel Dean on the outside. Sean Murphy-Bunting on the inside to cover Tyreek Hill and then Carlton Davis or Ross Cockrell? Let’s go Tyreek and Mahomes.
   
2. Antonio Brown – At $5,700 on DraftKings and only $6,500 on FanDuel what is not to love about running back your Chiefs’ stacks with arguably the best wide receiver we’ve seen since Calvin Johnson? He should be one of the chalkier players on this slate (in my opinion) and he won’t sniff >10% ownership.
   
3. Mike Williams – My dude! Always Mike Williams. Always Mike Williams receiving yards prop (over) in a shootout. Always Mike Williams. While 30% of the field is going to flock to Keenan Allen (which you’ll read in the cash game article as to why I’m not sold on him this weekend), NO ONE will play Mike Williams… unless it’s a double stack of Keenan-Mike paired with Herbert.
   
   I can’t think of a better way to get exposure to this game than getting cheap shares of Mike Williams with a mini-stack runback of one of Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, or Cole Beasley (obviously prefer Diggs). This is a secondary stack that you can throw into your Chiefs/Bucs stacks. Boom.
   
4. AJ Brown – AJ Brown against Rock Ya-Sin? C’mon.
   
5. Laviska Shenault – Rarely does one make it in both the cash and GPP article, but at basically min-price, Shenault does. I am only listing him in here because he’s my favorite punt wide receiver and we’ll certainly need that if we’re dying to play these Chiefs’ stacks and/or Dalvin Cook.
   
   Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Sterling Shepard, Jakobi Meyers, Andy Isabella, Gabriel Davis

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski – I want as much Kelce or Waller as I can afford this weekend. In lineups I don’t have them, I’ll just go all the way down to get more exposure to my favorite game stack.
   
   Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

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