Dave Gloeckner 
It’s on to the next one as we move to the NFC South for our latest NFL Preseason Division preview. And like their partners in the AFC, this is a very underwhelming Division that will likely produce just one playoff team. With Tom Brady’s retirement following the 2022 season, every team in the South has shifted to a new starting QB in 2023.
New Orleans, the proverbial favorite by a slim margin, brought in the most established QB in the Division as they made the splash to sign Derek Carr from Las Vegas. Last year they started the season with Jameis Winston, but he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3, which forced them to turn to veteran Andy Dalton. And while he faired decently, ending with a 95.2 QB Rating, the Saints ended up in the back half of the league in total offense and points per game.
The Bucs are handing over the offense’s keys to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask. Both will be far from Tom Brady though he did underperform in 2022.
The Falcons transitioned to QB Desmond Ridder at the end of last season, and he will be their 3rd different starting QB in the previous three years to start a season under center.
And the Panthers leapfrogged everyone in the draft to get their guy in Alabama QB Bryce Young. He gets to learn under Frank Reich, who has a reputation for developing young players.
Although it may lack the top contenders in the NFC, this Division will be a battle, and all four teams have a shot to be champion entering 2023. We have two veteran QBs leading teams and two upstart youngsters leading the others. It makes for fascinating storylines and potentially juicy betting angles.
Remember, this article will focus on division winning odds and where there is value in the market. It’s not necessarily who will win the Division. Win totals will be in an article released in August (see last year’s win total article here which went 9-1).
TAMPA BAY BUCS +800 DraftKings
The Bucs sold their soul for a championship by bringing in a 43-year-old QB and 68-year-old coach. But it worked as they came home with the Lombardi trophy in 2020. Add to that they won 3 consecutive AFC South titles with Brady and Arians. The problem with that is the floor can drop out quickly, and that’s where the Bucs are in 2023. Last year was a preamble to the decline as they finished under 0.500 despite winning the Division and looking old. Following the season, Tom Brady finally decided Father Time won and retired.
The Bucs had no succession plan in place and, having an older roster were destined for a transition year. Which, again, is where we find Tampa Bay this season. There is still talent on the roster, as the WR corps is top-heavy with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They have talent at the running back position with Rachaad White and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. And their defense was solid, ranking 9th in yards against and 13th in points against. But that’s about where the good news ends.
The Bucs entered the offseason with over $74M in dead money. However, they were able to bring back CB Jamel Dean, who was PFF’s 5th-ranked FA. But their only “splash” outside that was the signing of QB Baker Mayfield to a one-year contract. The draft was good, but they took a reach on undersized DL Calijah Kancey in the 1st round. If he pans out, it will help a run D that ranked in the middle of the league last season.
But let’s get to the fundamental question mark of this team, and that’s the quarterback. Both Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask will battle for the starting position in the preseason. But neither gives any confidence that they can be a difference maker. We’ve seen Baker fall from grace over the past two season. As his arm strength and decision-making are huge question marks.
As for Trask, there’s a reason he was the 6th QB taken in the 2021 draft. He lacks suddenness in his decision-making and can hold onto the ball too long. No matter who they choose, a 46-year-old Brady would have been the preferred solution.
So can the Bucs win this Division for the fourth time in a row? There is talent across both the offense and defense that will keep them competitive. But as we saw with the Browns in 2021 and the Panthers last season, you can’t win with a QB that can’t finish drives and fails to make impactful plays. Add to that, the Bucs are playing a 1st place schedule. That is a significant disadvantage compared to the other teams in the Division. The Bucs could surprise, but the QB issues will put hamper this team. I’m passing on them this season as the other teams are ready to overtake Tampa in the standings.
VERDICT: NO BET / PASS
CAROLINA PANTHERS +400 DraftKings
The Matt Rhule era ended much more quickly than Carolina ownership hoped would happen. It was just another example of how College Football coaches failed in transitioning to the big leagues. And once Rhule was fired, the Panthers quickly started playing good football and challenged to win the NFC South under interim coach Steve Wilkes.
And while many thought that was enough for Wilkes to get the full-time job, the Panthers opted to go with Colts HC castoff Frank Reich. While questioned, their reasoning was sound, with the understanding that they would draft one of the top QBs in the 2023 NFL Draft. Speaking of the draft, the Panthers made a potential franchise-altering move by trading with the Bears to move up to the #1 position in the draft.
And with that, they drafted Alabama QB Bryce Young to be the face of their franchise. So using Reich’s experience with young QBs such as Carson Wentz, the Panthers put the keys to their future in a tandem of an ex-NFL QB and a Heisman winning QB.
But the draft wasn’t the only place Carolina made moves to improve their team. They brought in FA WR Adam Theilen and DJ Chark to help mentor youngsters such as 2nd year WR Terrace Marshall and rookie WR Jonathan Mingo. They also added TE Hayden Hurst to form a solid and deep receiving corps for Young. But they didn’t stop there as they added RB Miles Sanders as well as veteran QB Andy Dalton. When the dust was settled, their moves improved the offense significantly.
On defense, they have stars in DB Vonn Bell, DE Brian Burnes, DL Derek Brown, and DB Jaycee Horn. They’ll need others to step up to improve on a defense that ranked 20th in points per game in 2022. But the talent is there, and they’ve stocked the cupboard with young, exciting players.
This makes this Panthers team so intriguing coming into 2023. It’s hard for a new coach and young QB to make such giant leaps in their first season. But looking back to Jacksonville in 2022, that’s precisely what Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence did by going from worst to first. And like the AFC South, Carolina is in a Division where no real favorite exists. This team’s late surge, 5-3 in their last eight games, combined with experienced coaching and natural talent, puts it in a prime position to be a challenger this season.
I’m buying the +400 odds and willing to back the upstart Panthers in 2023. I’m also placing a wager on Bryce Young’s OROY odds as he has talent around him to succeed.
VERDICT: BET Win Division +400 / Bryce Young OROY +500
ATLANTA FALCONS +215 DraftKings
The Atlanta Falcons finished tied with both Carolina and New Orleans with a 7-10 record in 2022. In all, they were just one game behind Division champions in Tampa Bay. With the sudden suspension of star WR Calvin Ridley in the offseason, and the declination of QB Marcus Mariotta during the season, you could say 2022 was a success for the Falcons franchise.
But deep down inside, the record didn’t reflect their actual issues. The Falcons ended up 23rd in the league on defense in points per game at 22.7 (worst in Division). On offense, they were 25th in yards per game. This shows they were fortunate to win as many games as they did in 2022.
The offensive woes circled around a QB position that saw QBRs of 55.6 from Mariotta and 49.8 from rookie Desmond Ridder. They lacked talent at the receiver position, and 2nd year TE Kyle Pitts failed to make a significant impact.
So the Falcon took a leap and drafted the top RB on the board, Bijan Robinson, at pick #7 in the 2023 NFL Draft. I am completely against taking RBs in the top 20 for the record as it isn’t a position of high value.. But Atlanta believed it was a missing piece and defied NFL odds anyway. And they did so after taking a TE at pick #3 in the 2021 Draft, also unconventionally, while seeing that fail to come to fruition. Which made the Robinson pick even more curious.
The defensive struggles started with a run defense ranked 23rd in the league in yards per game at 130.1. Because of that, they created just 21 sacks, ranking 31st in the league. With the combined inefficiencies above, the Falcons had just 17 takeaways which was good for 27th in the league. All of that led to an aggressive offseason for the Falcons.
The Falcons entered free agency with the 2nd highest cap space. They aggressively used it to sign high-end defensive talents such as DB Jessie Bates, EDGE Bud Dupree, DL Calais Campbell, DL Eddie Goldman, and DI David Onyemata. All are upgrades and should help immediately improve their pass-rushing and run defense.
Atlanta’s most significant move on offense was the drafting of Bijan Robinson as the feature back in Arthur Smith’s offense. They also added WR Mack Hollins to pair with Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
And if the Desmond Ridder project goes wrong at QB, they added a reliable veteran in QB Tyler Heinicke. But in the end, this team will go only as far as their 2nd year QB can take them. Ridder’s accuracy is often questioned, but he completed 63% of his passes in his four starts which was a good sign that he is progressing under NFL tutelage.
However, he threw just 2 TDs in 115 attempts which showed his reluctance to drive the ball into tight windows. That must improve this season if the Falcons are to jump from worst to first in the NFC South. Based on Smith’s tenure and the uncertainty that Ridder will take the next step, I’m unwilling to put my money behind the Dirty Birds in 2023.
VERDICT: NO BET / PASS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +120 DraftKings
The New Orleans Saints found another promising season turn into a train off the rails in 2022. They couldn’t find a rhythm on offense and found themselves rudderless without former Head Coach Sean Payton and retired QB Drew Brees. It’s been since 2000 that the Saints have made the playoffs without Brees under center. Which goes to show how important he was to their franchise. So they made QB their biggest priority in the offseason and signed free agent Derek Carr who was ostracized and ousted by the Las Vegas Raiders. Carr brings success as well as a heartbeat and passion which should make for some high optimism in 2023 for the Saints.
The backbone of the 2022 Saints team was a defense that allowed the 5th lowest yards in the league and the 9th least points. A lot of that success was attributed to a line that registered 48 sacks good for 4th most in football. Led by Cameron Jordan’s 8.5 sacks, the Saints had 12 players register a sack in 2022. Their other strength was on the back end as the addition of Tyrann Mathieu ended up being one of the better offseason moves by any team in football.
Which leads us to 2023 as HC Dennis Allen was given another chance to right the ship. Because the Saints often sit in salary cap purgatory, they were faced with big name departures in free agency. Gone is part of the D-Line that was a force in players such as David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport.
But as discussed above, they did make a splash in FA and signed QB Derek Carr. They also drafted several players with upside to help reinvigorate key losses. They used their 1st and 2nd round picks on the D-Line and welcomed Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey. Both will help create pressure on the QB which is a key focal point for the Saints. On offense, they drafted RB Kendre Miller as insurance for a potential Alvin Kamara suspension. They also used a 6th round pick on Wake Forest star WR AT Perry who could be a steal.
As for my outlook on the New Orleans Saints coming into 2023, I am backing them to an extent as I think they have a good nucleus but also an inspired coach and QB. First off, Derek Carr is the best NFL QB in the Division by far though Bryce Young will eventually rise to that spot, just not in 2023. They also have the easiest schedule in the league according to many pundits. I do worry that their big name players on D are getting older and they will have to rely on their draft class to replace the production they lost in FA. But I still think they have one of the better defenses in the NFC, and the South, which will help keep them in games.
Overall, Andy Dalton wasn’t terrible but Derek Carr is a big upgrade. I like that Carr has found a home and has a chip on his shoulder. I think for one year, that motivation will work. In a division that is up for grabs, I do think there is value betting the Saints at +120. Their odds to make the playoffs are at -160 and their best way to get there is winning the Division. So that’s makes the plus odds having value here. I also think that WR Chris Olave will shine in Year 2 as he now has a proven QB. So here’s two bets we like this year for the Black and Gold.
VERDICT: CHRIS OLAVE MOST RECEIVING YARDS NFC SOUTH (+150) / NEW ORLEANS TO WIN DIVISION +120
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