NBA DFS is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NBA DFS Picks of Destiny.
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IMPORTANT: NBA DFS is completely different than any other sport. Players get ruled out five minutes before games and you HAVE TO BE READY to pivot. I will update this article as close to lineup lock as possible with any big news, but play it safe and stay on top of the news yourself. Hanging out in our Slack Chat is a great way to keep up to date.
I did my research on FanDuel today. The players can be used on both sites, but I refer to FanDuel pricing.
11/12 NBA DFS Point Guard
- Damian Lillard ($10,500 FD)
This game has the highest total on the slate and a close spread. Lillard will matchup against Cory Joseph (most likely) with Fox out for the next few weeks. Dame’s lowest fantasy output this season is 43 FD points. The last time he faced the kings he put up 54.5. The matchup is fantastic and I have him projected for the highest scoring PG of the slate.
2. Goran Dragic ($6,200 FD)
He is too cheap. Justice Winslow, and possibly Tyler Herro, will be out. Dragic should exceed 30 minutes in one of my favorite back courts to target in the NBA, the Detroit Pistons. He will exceed NBA DFS value.
Pivot: Chris Paul (too cheap)
Value PG: Cory Joseph ($3,700 FD)
He should be starting for De’Aaron Fox against the Portland Trailblazers. It is not a bad idea to pair him with Lillard on FD. If the game is close they should both be putting up NBA DFS points.
11/12 NBA DFS Shooting Guard
- Jimmy Butler ($9,400 FD)
Big bump with Winslow out. He should get the most minutes on the Heat as has upside for 50+ here. I love to target the Pistons.
Pivot: Devin Booker ($8,800 FD)
2. Buddy Hield ($7,000 FD)
With De’Aaron Fox out Hield should now be the primary scorer for the Kings. The opposing Trailblazers are ranked 25th in defending the shooting guard. A close game means he gets 35 minutes. If you need to save some salary you can drop down to Bogdan Bogdanovic for $1,400 less on FanDuel. They both have around the same floor but I am giving Hield the upside edge.
Pivot: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,600 FD)
Note: If Tyler Herro is out, I will consider Duncan Robinson. Not there yet though.
Note: Donovan Mitchell has the best matchup on the board against the Brooklyn Nets. I am timid as his last B2B game he played significantly less minutes. He dropped from 33 (what he played last night) to 25. I tend to avoid all risk. To me this seems like a risk, however if he gets his normal allotment of minutes he should smash. He is very tempting, but as on now I am leaning towards fading.
11/12 Small Forward
- Lebron James ($11,500 FD)
It’s Lebron James against the Suns. He is always a triple double threat, especially against a fast paced team like Phoenix. He projects to be the highest scoring SF on the slate.
2. Tobias Harris ($7,300 FD)
He feels safe for at least 40 FD points against the Cavs. No Al Horford will slightly bump up his shot attempts and rebounds. If there is no Ben Simmons either, you can go ahead and lock him in as my favorite SF on the slate.
Pivot: TJ Warren ($6,100)
Love him or hate him he is going to get 35 minutes for the Pacers. The team is depleted with injuries and they only have 10 men on the roster. Tough matchup but guaranteed minutes.
Note: Luke Kennard is really turning out to be a great piece for the Pistons. He is priced the exact same as TJ Warren. I will take Warren 9 out of 10 times here. With Blake Griffin out he should see a nice boost in minutes.
11/12 NBA DFS Power Forward
Note: Anthony Davis is always obvious if you can fit him in.
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,500 FD)
This guy has made me a lot of money lately. He is always under owned and constantly puts up over 45 NBA DFS points. Myles Turner and Goga Bitadze are out tonight so he yet again gets a usage huge bump. He should get high 30’s minutes and 40 FD points is his floor. #AlwaysSabonis
2. Kevin Love ($8,500 FD)
He had a down game last time out but his minutes are solid and can get you 45 NBA DFS points here at $8,500 FD. Tristan Thompson is going to be having a difficult time dealing with Joel Embiid, but Love is going to get a bump without Al Horford defending him. The 76ers have not yet announced starters but it will be a big step down from Al.
Pivot: Bam Adebayo (big minutes, tough matchup)
Update: PF Value: Chandler Hutchison (IF he is starting I get it, he can get you around 20.)
Update: PF Note: Richaun Holmes He has a dream matchup but I am not sure I can count on him with how deep the Kings might be with big men tonight. If Dedmon or Giles are out then I like him a lot more. Giles is finally healthy and getting worked into the rotation. If price lands me on him I will play him, but he is not a top target.
Hunch Play/High Risk: Paul Milsap (don’t play with Jokic)
11/12 DFS Center
Joel Embiid ($10,800 FD)
It should be showtime for Embiid here with no Horford and possibly no Ben Simmons. When he gets over 30 minutes he has 65 point upside. At his price, it make him well worth spending up for.
Pivot: Nikola Jokic ($9,000 FD)
The Joker has been putting it together lately and he gets a smash matchup against the Hawks. My worry here is the game gets out of hand and Jokic doesn’t see the floor much in the fourth quarter. I would rather take Embiid and his usage bump.
Value: Aron Baynes ($6,500 FD)
The Suns are going to need a lot of Baynes big body against Davis tonight. Last game he got in foul trouble and was out of the game early. Tonight he should get around his normal 30 minutes. I do not think he gets anywhere close to Embiid, but he is worth a mention at his price.
Value Pivot: Bobby Portis ($5,600 FD)
He hates Chicago and Mitchell Robinson is still out. If he is getting the start I love him.
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