Adam Strangis NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/10
After the monster slate last night, we return to action tonight with just two games and it’s a vastly different slate tonight. The good news is both of these games should be very good. The Brooklyn Nets visit the Philadelphia 76ers and you have the Ben Simmons drama mixing with the Nets needing wins and then the nightcap as another round of the Golden Stat Warriors facing the Denver Nuggets. By all accounts, the Warriors are sending the full team as opposed to Monday night so let’s get into the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/10!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: You have to take your chances on value plays tonight to get two studs in your lineups. With a handful of players at the top of the pricing grid with a 60+ point upside, two of them are a must.
Adam: My thought before opening the slate was this would be one stud, mostly balanced approach. Then I saw how DraftKings priced the top tier and we might have some wiggle to get creative. The group of Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Steph Curry are all around $1,000 less expensive than normal. I mean, Jokic is barely over $11,000. It’s not impossible to play a Durant/Jokic combo for example so any build is on the table for discussion. That is the way I’m leaning because some value is worth taking chances on for GPP tonight.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: It pains me to say this, but Nikola Jokic needs to be in your NBA lineups tonight across all formats. Putting the matchup aside since Adam touched on it below, there is simply no other center I want to play other than Jokic or Embiid. With my interest being as high as it is in James Harden, I’ll look to start my lineups with that duo in mind.
Adam: It’s the soon-to-be two-time MVP in Jokic. It is the fourth game in five days for the Nuggets but Jokic is just built differently. He’s played the Warriors three times this season and has 60, 70, and 75 DK points in those games. His floor is the highest among the stars in my eyes and the ceiling is 75+ once again. Golden State continues to be extremely average in all aspects defensively since January and no Draymond Green has really exposed some issues.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: I’d lean Curry here but truth be told, I can certainly get behind a stack between him and Jokic in an attempt to stack the stars of the second game of the night. Thus, Kyrie Irving will be my fade of the six studs tonight; simply put, he needs to score 40 raw to contend with the other five studs atop the pricing grid, and this game screams Harden versus Durant all night long.
Adam: It will almost certainly be Curry as he’s just consistently not justifying this salary right now. Sure, Curry is capable of being the highest scorer on this or any other slate but his fantasy results continue to be an issue anymore. He’s on pace for his worst season from the floor (43.2%) and from a 3-point distance (37.7%) in his career. Curry has never been below 41.1% from beyond the arc in any season and it’s impossible not to notice that at this juncture.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: If you are following my path of trying to get the combination of Jokic and Harden together, you are going to need not only one value play but multiple. Thus, with my main lineup not having Steph Curry at the time of writing, I’ll look at the value in Golden State with Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, and Jordan Poole.
Adam: Jokic and the duo of Goran Dragic and Moses Moody. Now, Denver missed players last night and Davon Reed started and played a bunch of minutes so keep an eye on that. This trio is all under $4,000 and Dragic has been playing solid backup minutes for the Nets. He’s surrounded by two of the more lethal offensive players in the world, which tends to help. Moody is risky but even when he was playing with the whole crew for Golden State, he still logged 30 minutes. These aren’t going to be super high usage players but the salary is right and the flexibility at the top is worth chasing.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Harden and Durant combine for 70 raw points in an electric matchup, whereby the two combine for 130+ fantasy points.
Adam: Jokic makes another statement tonight with a 30/12/15 triple-double in his fourth-straight massive fantasy game.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
