It’s “No Late Swap” Friday and we get a six-game NBA DFS slate this beautiful Friday. I’ll break down my core plays alongside some of my favorite value plays. I’ll also go over the game that I’ll be targeting overall. On top of that, I’ll drop my two favorite bets for tonight’s action while using the brand-new Propbettor tool!
NBA DFS – Core Plays
Nikola Jokic $11,800 – 64.89 DK Points – 5.50 Value Rating
We get the second matchup of Nikola Jokic versus Victor Wembaynama tonight and it should be an exciting one. Jokic recorded 39 points, 11 rebounds, and nine assists in the first meeting this season. Now, looking at Jokic for this season, he’s playing like he should be going for his fourth-straight MVP title. He’s holding a usage rate of 29% while averaging 16 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game. Facing a San Santonio Spurs defense that is allowing 27 points and 16.1 rebounds to the center position makes this a juicy night for Nikola Jokic.
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Marcus Sassar $3,700 – 20.86 DK Points – 5.64 Value Rating
Marcus Sassar is popping up on the value rating chart after a strong performance versus Toronto. Sassar recorded 11 points with five rebounds and three assists in 22 minutes. While he did have four personal fouls, he kept the turnover column at zero. Miami will be more difficult, but coming off the bench could benefit him. Also, there is an eight-point spread here which could lead to Detroit getting blown out.
Collin Sexton $7,300 – 43.39 DK points – 5.94 Value Rating
Collin Sexton has one of the best matchups for shooting guards tonight and is only $7,300. He projects for 43.39 DK points with a value rating of 5.94. Sexton has averaged 21.6 points, 5.6 assists, and 3.2 rebounds in his last five games while averaging 33.4 minutes. That is eight minutes more of playing time than his season average of 25.5 minutes. The Atlanta Hawks allow opposing shooting guards to average 24.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, and six assists per game.
NBA DFS – Top Value Targets
Nikola Jovic $4,000 – 23.05 DK points – 5.88 Value Rating
This play has some risk as Jovic has had some bad nights in his last five games. In those five games, he has averaged 6.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. He had a similar stat line versus Detroit this season where he recorded eight points with four rebounds, two assists, and two steals. The Detroit Pistons are in the bottom five versus forwards which could benefit Nikola Jovic and his small price tag.
Jose Alvarado $3,400 – 17.97 DK Points – 5.28 Value Rating
This is based on a matchup situation for Jose Alvarado as his overall performance this season has been underwhelming. In the last five games, he has recorded 6.4 points, 2.2 assists, and two rebounds with 1.2 steals per game. Alvarado’s minutes have slightly increased to 20.9 minutes per game. He’ll be facing a Los Angeles Clippers team that has allowed 24.3 points and eight assists per game to the point guard position on the season.
NBA DFS – Game To Target
Atlanta Hawks (-142) versus Utah Jazz (+120) – Total 223 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
There aren’t any over-the-top scoring totals on today’s NBA slate but the Atlanta Hawks and Utah Jazz game is interesting to look at. We have one of our core pieces featured in it with Collin Sexton. We also have some good salary-priced players that we can target for stacks. Brice Sensabaugh is only $4.8k with a projection of 22.78 DK points. His ownership will most likely be low for someone who has found his scoring as of late. John Collins is priced at $7.1k and did have a poor performance in his first meeting this season with Atlanta. However, Atlanta has allowed 22.5 points and 16 rebounds per game to opposing centers this season.
Dejounte Murray comes in at $9.5k but has a bad value of just 4.80 and a projection of 45.58 DK points. He may be one to avoid, especially at his price tag. Bogdan Bogdanovic would be the one to target as he projects at 35.83 DK points and has a value of 5.35. The rest of the Hawks start don’t project well or hold a good value rating. However, Jalen Johnson did have a good performance in the first meeting where he recorded 22 points, 13 rebounds, and one assist. His price tag of $7.6k is still steep and there are better options elsewhere.
NBA DFS – Best Bets
We have launched the all-new PropBetter tool for our Premium users and you do not want to miss out on it. It covers the main Sportsbooks and allows you to find the edge for player props for each book. It’s a one-stop shop for you so you don’t have to go on a scavenger hunt to find the best place to place your money!
Franz Wagner over 18.5 Points -115 (DK Sportsbook)
Franz Wagner comes in with a solid edge of 15.18% and projects for 21.33 points versus Toronto. Wagner recorded 17 points in their first meeting this season and that matchup leans with him. Toronto is currently allowing 25 points to the small forward position. With how the Orlando Magic are playing, Franz Wagner should be able to reach his prop total tonight.
Bradley Beal over 4.5 Assists +105 (DK Sportsbook)
Bradley Beal has been playing some fantastic basketball and should be able to continue it versus the Charlotte Hornets. Beal recorded seven assists in their first meeting this season. In his last five games, he has gone over 4.5 assists three times. The Hornets are allowing 5.2 assists per game to the shooting guard also which benefits the Bradley Beal prop total.
