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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
Unlike the double-header on Saturday, this race is not for points but is only for money. It will be a small field of 21 drivers, four of which will be determined by the fan vote and by The Open. I am pretty sure the fan vote went to Bubba Wallace ($6,100) which means he will start 21st (last) in the field. Whoever ends up in from the fan vote will be one of the top plays because of their place differential upside starting from P21.
There are some very….well silly… and convoluted rules for this race. You can find a link to them here. With only 21 drivers in the field, there won’t be many low-owned drivers, and there will most likely be ties for takedowns. I will try and help you build lineups that could be different. This will be a different type of article though. Instead of breaking down the price tier, I will just rank the drivers which will hopefully make it easier for you to build lineups on Sunday night.
NASCAR DFS: All Star Rankings
1. Kyle Larson ($10,200) – P1
Larson has dominated of late in the Cup Series and I don’t see anyone beating him this weekend either. With him starting on the pole he should be able to get out and lead a lot of laps early on. No one has been better at 1.5-mile tracks with low tire wear this season. Larson dominated and won at Charlotte and Kansas and would have won at Kansas if not for a late-race restart.
2. Kyle Busch ($8,200) – P2
Busch was the class of the field on Saturday in the Xfinity race and he should be able to use that knowledge in his favor on Sunday. Texas has always been a favorite track of Busch and he should be considered a favorite on Sunday night. In his last five races at Texas, Busch has two wins and only finished outside the top 10 once. This season at 1.5-mile tracks, Busch has finishes of 1st, 3rd, and 3rd.
3. William Byron ($8,000) – P8
Byron has been one of the best drivers at 1.5-mile tracks this season. In 2021, Byron is only behind Larson when it comes to total speed ranking at 1.5-mile tracks. Two weeks ago at Charlotte (the last 1.5-mile track raced) Byron finished 4th and was the 2nd fastest car. I think Byron goes overlooked and could be a difference-maker in your lineups on Sunday.
4. Chase Elliott ($8,500) – P6
Elliott was off to a slow start, but his team has seemed to find speed the last few races and should be a contender to win this race in back-to-back years. Over the last six weeks, nobody has a better average finish (3.3) than Elliott and the 9 have.
5. Ryan Blaney ($9,600) – P17
Blaney is starting in the last spot for those who are already qualified and there are a bunch of reasons to like him. First, Blaney is a very aggressive driver, and a race like this is made for him. Because of his aggressive nature, he also is at risk of wrecking, but luckily he starts so far back that it won’t hurt too bad if he does. Secondly, the Cup Series is running a 510 horsepower package similar to what is run at Superspeedways where Blaney is one the best in the series. Lastly, Blaney had two top-ten finishes at Texas last season (4th and 7th). One downside to Blaney is his inflated projected ownership (49%), but if he is to win this race I don’t know that you can get the takedown without him in your lineup.
6. Denny Hamlin ($9,900) – P16
I think Hamlin may be the highest owned driver in this race so I will most likely have very few builds with him. Hamlin has been good at similar tracks this season with finishes of 4th and 7th at Vegas and Charlotte. You can’t argue the place differential upside with Hamlin, and maybe the money will be what gets Hamlin that first win this season, but with that being said, use Hamlin with caution.
7. Brad Keselowski ($7,700) – P9
Keselowski has the second-best average finish in 2021 at low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks (5.3). At Charlotte Keselowski finished 11th, his worst finish on the season. Keselowski finished 2nd and 3rd at Vegas and Kansas earlier this season. I don’t think Keselowski will be a contender to win this race, but a top 5 is definitely a possibility and his price means he doesn’t need to do more than finish where he started to make value.
8. Alex Bowman ($9,300) – P15
Bowman is another driver that is expected to carry a lot of ownership based on his starting position. Texas has been a good track for Bowman of late with two top 5 finishes in his last three races here. Bowman was set up for another top 10 finish in the first race last season at Texas but wrecked late and finished 30th.
9. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,100) – P10
Truex has been great at Texas since it was repaved in 2017 (he was great before that too). In eight races since 2017, Truex has five top 10 finishes and only two finishes lower than 12th (one because of a crash, and another because of mechanical issues). If you want to be different and not go for the “chalkiest” trio of Blaney/Hamlin/Bowman, then Truex is your man. Truex is projected for just 7 points lower than Blaney (highest projected driver) which to me means they project to finish around the same place in the standings.
10. Kurt Busch ($6,900) – P13
It was a hard choice to put Kurt here over the 11th ranked driver, but it came down to FPTS/$ for me. Busch is the highest point-per-dollar play on the slate and could find himself in the top 10 when it’s all said and done. Kurt has run eight races since Texas was repaved and he has finished top 10 in ALL eight. Busch is expected to carry some ownership, but not enough where I would be worried about rostering him.
The rest of the field:
11. Joey Logano ($7,500) – P7
12. Ryan Newman ($6,200) – P14 – one of the BEST value plays in this race
13. Kevin Harvick ($8,700) – P12
14. Austin Dillon ($6,600) – P5 – Dillon has a win here and will carry almost no ownership
15. Michael McDowell ($6,300) – P11
16. Christopher Bell ($7,200) – P3
17. Cole Custer ($5,900) – P4 – Only really in play if you are MME
NASCAR DFS: The Open Drivers
We will have to wait until a little before an hour before race time to get the final four spots, so I suggest building teams with those who have already qualified in case you can’t make adjustments before lock just after 8pm in the East.
My picks to make this race from The Open are :
Tyler Reddick ($7,100)
Ricky Stenhouse ($6,700)
Daniel Suarez ($5,700)
(REMEMBER these are just my GUESSES on who qualifies for the race, please check discord or online before 8pm lock for those who ACTUALLY qualified)
All four drivers who move into the All-Star race will be great plays because they have already run laps on the track which will pretty much be like practice laps and they will start from P18-P21. If you can make sure you get 1-2 of these guys into your lineups.
Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!
