NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Texas 10/17

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Ding Ding Ding, Round 3!

Sunday kicks off the third round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with only eight drivers remaining for the final four spots. Texas is a low-tire wear 1.5-mile track that usually runs clean. Last year at this race there were only four cautions for wrecks and only five cars that didn’t finish the race. This is a long race with 334 laps so we will want to get dominators in our lineups. My advice would be no less than 2 in any lineup, but at the same time, don’t try to unnecessarily try to fit more than 3 in and be stuck with three value drivers. This week the mid-tier is absolutely loaded in such a way that building one value driver lineups is entirely too easy.

There will be some chalky builds, but if things happen as they did on Saturday, the chalk will dominate, and you will need to just eat the good chalk. I will, of course, find those few plays with a big upside that won’t be as popular, but will also try to lead you away from the bad chalk.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Kyle Larson ($10,500)

Starting Position: 1st

I mean, come on, are you really surprised Larson is the top driver in this race? Well, if you’ve been here all season then you shouldn’t be at this point. When it comes to 1.5-mile track nobody has been better than Larson in 2021. When it comes to total speed rankings at 1.5-mile tracks nobody even comes close to Larson’s 2.57 avg rank. At 1.5-mile low tire wear tracks, yep you guessed it, Kyle Larson is tops there too (avg ranking of 2nd). I know Larson is going to be the highest owned driver, but listen, he’s going to score over 100 points on Sunday, win this race, and lead the most laps. Can you get a takedown on Sunday if you don’t roster Larson? Highly unlikely.

Kyle Busch ($9,800)

Starting Position: 3rd

Oh, look, another Kyle. Last season at this race, Kyle Busch dominated leading 90 laps on his way to his fourth career Texas victory. Since the start of the 2020 NASCAR playoffs, Kyle Busch has finished top 10 in nine of nine races at 1.5-mile low tire wear tracks. Busch also has the third-best total speed ranking at this track type in 2021. On Sunday, Busch has the potential to lead 90 laps again and finish top 3 in this race and he is severely underpriced for his upside.

William Byron ($9,600)

Starting Position: 12th

Byron has been one of the series’s best drivers at this track type in 2021. On the season, Byron ranks second behind Larson in total speed at low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks. The last time the series raced at this track type (Vegas #2), Byron was the fastest car but ran into some late-race carnage and ended up 18th one lap down. Byron will most likely be one of the lowest owned drivers in this race and could be a great pivot off Busch.

Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($9,500 – P4): Blaney has an avg finish of 6th at this type in 2021, but I would only play him on DK. Kevin Harvick ($10,900 – P24): Texas is one of Harvick’s best tracks, but I don’t think he can make value at this salary. He is a top ten threat but he isn’t a threat to lead too many laps. Chase Elliott ($10,100 – P6): Elliott has an avg finish of 4.8 at similar track types in 2021 and has finished top 8 in every race.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kurt Busch ($8,700)

Starting Position: 17th

Kurt Busch is usually a solid driver at Texas Motorspeedway in his career. Since this track was repaved in 2017, Busch has finished between 7th and 9th in every race, and he is only one of two drivers to finish in the top 10 in all four races since 2019. Since Charlotte, Kurt Busch has an average finish of 4.3 at this track type. At Las Vegas (similar track type), Kurt Busch finished 8th.

Tyler Reddick ($7,700)

Starting Position: 9th

Here’s another driver that nobody ever wants to roster. Reddick is having the best year of his short career in 2021 and should be a top 10 contender again on Sunday. Over the last four races at 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has finished between 6th and 9th in all four and has the third-best average finish (7th).

Brad Keselowski ($8,500)

Starting Position: 7th

Keselowski is another driver I expect to carry low ownership even the numbers dictate he should be highly owned. This season at this track type, Keselowski has finished 11th or better in all four races as well as having an average finish of 5.8. Keselowski also has an average running position of 8.2 in the same four races. At non-road courses in the playoffs this season Keselowski has an average finish of 7th. Basically what I’m saying is that Keselowski has fared well at this track and similar tracks like it in 2021 and should be considered for your lineups on Sunday.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,300 – P11), Austin Dillon ($7,500 – P15): Dillon has finished 14th or better in each of the last 5 Texas races including a win here last summer. Ricky Stenhouse ($7,200 – P27): Stenhouse, like in most of his races, either wrecks or finishes in the top 16. Let’s hope for a top 16 on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Daniel Suarez ($6,900) – P19: Suarez is a fringe mid tier option at this price. In the last 6 races at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, Suarez has finished 17th or better in five of them.
2. Bubba Wallace ($6,400) – P18: Wallace is almost a mirror image of Suarez this week in salary and starting position. In the last three races at this track type, Wallace has finished 14th (twice) and 16th. I believe we will see Wallace finish right around the top 15 again on Sunday.
3. Cole Custer ($6,200) – P20: At this race last season, Custer was able to finish 14th. Custe has not been outstanding at this track type in 2021, but he is cheap and has small place differetial upside.
4. Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P29: Speaking of place differential upside, Lajoie is probably the safest bet for that on Sunday. Texas hasn’t been one of Lajoie’s best tracks, but he does have top 20 upside.
5. Anthony Alfredo ($5,600) – P28: Alfredo is pretty much a lock for a finish between 23rd and 27th. That is where he has finished at every 1.5-mile track in 20201. Alfredo is plenty cheap enough and seems safe on both sites.
6. BJ McLeod ($4,500) – P35: Love the salary and starting position. Remember though, there isn’t typically a lot of cars falling out of the Texas races so he might need some attrition to make value, but it can happen.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!