NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Talladega 4/25/21

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Talladega history:

This week the Cup Series heads south to Talladega Superspeedway! This race will get crazy, unlike the Xfinity Series on Saturday. It will be unpredictable and there is a good chance we will get a last-lap pass before it’s all over. In 2020 we had a last-lap pass at both of the races at Talladega so why not go for 3 in a row on Sunday. We have seen crazier things, see Carl Edwards jogging to the finish line. Don’t believe me, check out the video below from the NASCAR Youtube channel:

Lineup Construction:

When it comes to building lineups for me on Sunday I will focus on loading up on the value tier and drivers starting from 25th place and back. Below is how I plan on building most of my lineups on Sunday.

• 1 driver starting P15 or higher (GPP ONLY, none for Cash or SE)
• 1-2 drivers starting from P16-P25
• 3-4 drivers starting from P26 and back (4-5 for Cash or SE contests)

You will have some salary leftover if you build your lineups this way, but that is expected and necessary generally. In the past, at Superspeedway races, we would see optimal lineups with as little as $800 leftover, but as much as $3.1K leftover as well. Do NOT be afraid to leave salary on the table this weekend. I know as DFS players we are programmed to get the most we can from our “budget” but this is not one of those races.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Chase Elliott ($10,300)

Starting Position: 8th

Elliott is one of the top Superspeedway drivers in the field on Sunday and is coming off a 2nd place finish at Daytona. Starting 8th and with the potential to win this race, Elliott offers up some place differential. Over the four Superspeedway races in 2020, Elliot ranked 1st in overall speed and led 41 laps in the second Talladega race.

Team Penske

Joey Logano ($9,800 – P2), Ryan Blaney ($10,100 – P7), Brad Keselowski ($10,500 – P10)

Both Logano and Blaney are two of the favorites to win this race and I plan on having some exposure to both. Keselowski is a good Superspeedway driver but has had some problems at Talladega since his last win there in 2018. Blaney was dominant last season leading 73 laps in the two races and winning the first Talladega race. Logano is another great superspeedway driver having the 2nd best finish and average running position at this track since 2017 and is a three-time winner.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Hamlin starts on the pole is only viable in large field GPP’s on Sunday. In his last 5 Talladega races, Hamlin has finished top 4 in four of those races including his win last fall here. This year at Daytona, Hamlin finished 5th after leading 98 laps and winning both stages.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,000 – P5), Kyle Larson ($9,400 – P12)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ricky Stenhouse ($8,500)

Starting Position: 17th

It’s how he races at Superspeedways that earned Ricky the name “Wrecky” Stenhouse but he is actually one of the best Superspeedway drivers. Talladega has been where Stenhouse shines with an average finish here of 4.2 since 2016 and he has finished in the top 5 40% in his career here.

Ryan Newman ($7,600)

Starting Position: 28th

If you are playing cash games or single entry on Sunday, Ryan Newman is a lock for those lineups. Starting 28th, he offers you some outstanding place differential. Newman will generally run in the back of the field throughout the race and then race his way into the top 10 before it’s all said and done.

Harrison Burton ($7,900)

Starting Position: 39th

Burton starts next to last in the #96 Gaunt Bros Toyota. This is going to be a 2021 Toyota (usually a 2020) which makes me think they will be getting help from Joe Gibbs Racing this week. Burton is another driver who will be very popular and is a great cash game/single entry play.

William Byron ($8,000)

Starting Position: 4th

Byron stats high and is another GPP only play, but he does have some upside here with his recent history at Superspeedways. In 2020, Byron won the second Daytona race and had an average finish of 7.5 at similar tracks. As long as Byron can avoid all the potential wrecks here he could come home with the win.

Aric Almirola ($8,700)

Starting Position: 14th

Almirola is a Superspeedway stud and is a former winner here at Talladega (2018 – Fall). In eight of his last nine races at similar tracks, Almirola has finished in the top 10 and like with all the other drivers listed has the potential for another if he can avoid the wrecks.

Other Options: Austin Dillon ($7,700 – P11), Kurt Busch ($8,300 – P15), Bubba Wallace ($7,000 – P24), Erik Jones ($7,500 – P22), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200 – P13),

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

I can really make a case for any driver in this tier, but below are just a few of the ones I like the most.

1. Ryan Preece ($6,400) – P29: Preece is a solid superspeedway driver and is coming off a 6th place finish at Daytona. In his four SS races, Preece has an average finish of 11.5
2. Tyler Reddick ($6,500) – P20: Reddick is a bit risky of a play, but he did finish top 10 here last fall and has won in the Xfinity Series at Talladega
3. Ross Chastain ($6,100) – P18: Chastain finished 7th at Daytona and has 3 finishes of 12th or better in his 6 superspeedway races
4. Corey Lajoie ($5,600) – P26: It seems every Cup Series race at Superspeedways Corey Lajoie manages a good result. Lajoie finished 28th at the last Talladega race, but in his previous 3 races he had finishes of 16th, 7th, and 11th
5. Justin Haley ($5,900) – P34: We all know that Haley has had great success at the Xfinity level at Talladega, and even has a win in the Cup Series at Daytona. If we can get a top 20 out of Haley that would be great
6. Kaz Grala ($5,800) – P38: Grala is in the Kaulig #16 on Sunday. Starting 38th gives him plenty of upside and makes him a popular play. He is a cash game lock for me.
7. Anthony Alfredo ($5,700) – P30: Maybe this will be Alfredo’s week? If the attrition goes his way and he manages to avoid the wrecks a top 20 could be in his future.

As far as the drivers priced $5.4K and lower, you can take a shot if you want, but do so with caution. They will need some help from other drivers wrecking out and for their cars to function properly to give you value. I may throw one or two into my lineups because, hey you never know.

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