NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Sonoma 6/6/21

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This week we are in stark contrast from last week’s 600-mile race as the Cup Series heads to wine country for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 from Sonoma Raceway. Last week I preached dominators and getting the lap leaders into your builds, this week not so much. With only 90 laps we are not so concerned with stacking 3 dominators, instead, you need to look for place differential plays and finishing positions. I will be looking for a mix of drivers starting towards the front of the field and place differential plays. Four of the last five winners at Sonoma have started between 8th-12th, because of this I do not recommend loading up on 4-5 place differential plays as tempting as it may be.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900)

Starting Position: 19th

Truex is a 3-time Sonoma winner and is one of the best road course racers on the circuit, even though he didn’t have a great day at COTA two weeks ago. We all know Truex has the skill and upside to win this race, but he has not had a good race in three weeks. I think this week is the week Truex breaks out of his slump and earns a top 5. Truex is one of the few drivers in the higher price tiers that aren’t starting towards the front that I want to use this week.

Chase Elliott ($10,500)

Starting Position: 2nd

Elliot is the best road course racer in NASCAR currently and is my pick to win this race, his first win at Sonoma. In 2019, when NASCAR was last here, Elliott definitely had a car good enough to win, but his engine blew up on lap 60. Elliott has the third-fastest speed ranking in that race. Outside of that Sonoma race, Elliott has won six of the last nine road course races.

Kurt Busch ($9,100)

Starting Position: 30th

Busch is not having a good year, to say the least, but his best finish on the year did come at a rod course this season. At the Daytona Road Course, Busch finished 4th and then ran well at COTA, but had a disappointing result. Kurt has not finished lower than 13th in the last nine races at Sonoma and has seven top 10’s, four top 5’s, and a win in that stretch. I do not love this play but it’s hard to dispute his upside for his salary as Busch projects as the top Fpts/$ play on this slate. I will probably have a lot of Busch on Sunday but I am not happy about it.

Joey Logano ($10,100)

Starting Position: 13th

Logano is a really solid road course performer of late but it seems to go overlooked, even by myself. I know I mentioned race winners coming from starting positions 8-12 in 4 of the last 5, but Logano is on the fringe of those positions and I think he could contend for a win here. Logano has five straight top 10’s at road courses, and in his last three road courses, he has finished 3rd or better.

Remaining Top Tier Options:

• Kyle Busch ($10,300 – P5): Busch has been great at Sonoma over the last five races with a win and an average finish of 4th.
• Kyle Larson ($9,7000 – P1): Larson hasn’t had much success at Sonoma but that was not with his current team. This #5 team has been dominant all season and should contend for the win on Sunday
• Denny Hamlin ($9,900 – P4): Hamlin has finished top five in 8 of his last 12 road course races and should factor in for a top 5 on Sunday.
• William Byron ($9,500 – P3): Byron is a good RC racer and should earn another top 10 on Sunday. This team has been running great races all season and in his last 5 road course races, Byron has finished worse than 11th once.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kevin Harvick ($8,900)

Starting Position: 8th

Harvick is a former Sonoma winner (2017) and would’ve had two wins but pit strategy cost him that win in 2018 where he ended up 2nd. In his last five Sonoma races, Harvick has never finished lower than 6th and has an average finishing position of 3.8.

Christopher Bell ($8,400)

Starting Position: 20th

Christopher Bell has been a solid performer at road courses over his career, and Joe Gibbs cars have also done traditionally well at Sonoma as well. Bell has never raced here so that is a slight worry, but with iRacing nowadays he can have some test runs here that will give him some idea of how the course runs. Bell also has teammates who have all had success here which will definitely help. I think Bell could be a sneaky top 5 pick on Sunday.

Ross Chastain ($7,700)

Starting Position: 29th

Chastain is one of the top upside plays in this race and his salary fits nicely with the top tier guys as well. I will have plenty of exposure to Chastain on Sunday and not feel bad about it at all. Chastain only has one race here at Sonoma (33rd) and was not in good equipment, now that he is in the CGR #42 he should have a much better result. Don’t rule out a top 10 on Sunday, but a more realistic finish is in the mid-teens.

Other Options: Michael McDowell ($7,600 – P21), Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P7), Tyler Reddick ($8,000 – P10), Chris Buescher ($7,200 – P12), Cole Custer ($7,500 – P23)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chase Briscoe ($6,900) – P25: Briscoe ran the ARCA West race here on Saturday night and dominated by leading all 51 laps on his way to victory lane. Briscoe has been a solid road course racer at every level and a top 15 is where I predict he ends up on Sunday
2. Ryan Preece ($6,800) – P27: Prior to 2020 Preece did not have great road course history, but in the past two seasons that has changed. Preece is having the best season of his career and I think Preece could finish in the top 15 play on Sunday.
3. Ryan Newman ($6,300) – P24: Newman has four finishes of 11th or better in his last 6 Sonoma races. A top 20 is very likely for Newman on Sunday but don’t rule out a top 10 with attrition.
4. Daniel Suarez ($6,400) – P16: Suarez has raced at Sonoma 3 times and has an average finish of 16th. If not for a pit road mistake in 2019 Suarez was in line for a top 10, but came home 17th instead.
5. Anthony Alfredo ($5,800) – P28: Alfredo is another driver making his debut at Sonoma but he has performed well at road courses in 2021. At the Daytona road course, Alfredo finished 22nd, and at COTA he came home 18th.
6. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,100) – P14: Stenhouse has finished between 15th and 22nd at all seven road course races since 2019 and has an average finishing position of 18th
7. Garrett Smithley ($5,000) – P34: Smithley is not going to compete for the win but his best finishes this season have come at road courses (27th and 28th). I don’t know how much Smithley I will use, but he should be reserved for those doing MME, not cash or SE really.
8. Scott Heckert ($4,800) – P35: Heckert is a road course ringer, but he isn’t expected to finish much higher than where he starts. I don’t think he is playable if building one lineup, but if you are MME then he should find his way into 10-12% of your builds
9. Ben Rhodes ($5,400) – P31: Rhodes is taking over for Justin Haley this week and is a respectable road course driver. Earlier this season in the truck series Rhodes won at the Daytona RC and finished 10th at COTA. Do NOT expect similar results on Sunday but a top 25 is definitely possible.
10. James Davison ($5,600) – P32: Davison is a road course guy, but like with Smithley, Heckert, and Rhodes he is only an option for those doing MME.

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