NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Richmond 9/11

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

September 11th – 20 years later

Before I get into the breakdown for this race I just want to reflect on what this day means for our country. As an American and a native New Yorker, I never forget the horrible acts of violence that were perpetrated against our country on this day 20 years ago. I always think about the people who lost their lives and the families who lost someone close to them. We must also remember the brave people who helped keep the third plane from killing thousands of more innocent American citizens on this day as well. Just as important are the thousands of firefighters, EMS workers, and police officers who ran into the buildings while others ran out trying to save lives. This is a sad day of remembrance for our country, but we must never forget the lives lost on this day.

Richmond Raceway Breakdown:

Richmond at night is a fun short-track race. This is also a 400 lap race so we will be looking to load up on the dominators for this one. Both Fanduel and DraftKings did a bad job(?) of pricing making our builds relatively easy this week. First things first if you’re playing on Fanduel, don’t overthink it and just play JJ Yeley at $2K. He will be chalk but he starts dead last and makes the rest of your build a piece of cake.

There are a few place differential options I really like, and some that we will be playing because the sites make us by pricing them stupidly. Those are the easy plays, finding the right dominators to pair them with isn’t, but that is what I am here for.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Denny Hamlin ($10,400)

Starting Position: 2nd

Hamlin is fresh off his first victory of the season but I don’t see him sitting back and taking it easy on Saturday night. He may have already clinched his spot in the second round of the playoffs but Hamlin will be out for his second win at Richmond. Earlier this season Hamlin led 207 laps while finishing second. In his career here, Hamlin has three victories and ten finishes of 6th or better in the last twelve races at Richmond. Hamlin is sure to get upfront here and led a high number of laps and compete for the win.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,200)

Starting Position: 3rd

Truex and Hamlin are pretty much 1a and 1b this week. Both drivers have driven exceptionally well here in their careers and you can’t go wrong with one or both (my preferred build) of them. Truex comes in with five straight top 5’s at Richmond including winning both races in 2019 (his only two wins here). Over that five-race span, Truex has led an astonishing 564 laps (112 avg per race). If we can get another 100+ laps led with a top 5 finish from MTJ on Saturday we should be sitting pretty in the green.

Joey Logano ($10,700)

Starting Position: 6th

Logano is another driver who has been excellent at Richmond in his career, especially in recent races. Coming into this race, Logano has not been great this season, but he did manage a top 10 last week at Darlington so hopefully, all is right with the 22 team and they are on the uptick. Logano has three top 3 finishes in the last four races at Richmond and also has a victory and six top 4 finishes in his last eight races here.

Kyle Larson ($11,000)

Starting Position: 1st

Larson won the fall race here in 2017 and since then he has a run of three top 10’s in the five races. Earlier this season Larson had a bad day at Richmond and came home two laps down in 18th. Larson is in play for me, but not as a potential winner, but as a top ten contender who could lead a good portion of the early part of this race. Larson has only the 10th best speed rating at short flat tracks this season.

Kyle Busch ($11,500)

Starting Position: 15th

I know we have been burned by Kyle a few times this season but with a driver this talented it’s to not come back to him. It is not hard to see why I like Kyle here when you look at his history at this track. Busch is currently running a streak of seven straight top 10’s with two wins in that span. If you want to go back even further, Busch has ten top 10’s in his last eleven races at Richmond. While he is expensive, Busch offers place differential upside with potential dominator ability. We have so much value that you can easily fit three dominator builds with Busch.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($9,600 – P10) – Bell has been great on short flat tracks this season with an avg finish of 5th there and the third-best speed ranking. Brad Keselowski ($9,300 – P6), Chase Elliott ($11,200 – P13)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Ross Chastain ($7,200)

Starting Position: 17th

Chastain is criminally cheap for the potential upside in this race. Earlier this season, Chastain finished 15th here at Richmond and he has actually improved his finishes at similar track types. Chastain finished 8th at New Hampshire which was the last short flat track the series visited. I see Chastain as a top 10 upside play.

Aric Almirola ($7,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Almirola is going to be very low-owned on Saturday night and could be a difference-maker in your lineups. Earlier this season at Richmond, Almirola finished 6th while running the 8th best speed ranking and the 8th best driver late in a run. Almirola is not someone who will be on many people’s radars, especially starting so high. Just remember Almirola won his spot in the playoffs at New Hampshire, another short flat track.

Austin Dillon ($8,400)

Starting Position: 19th

Austin Dillon has stated that Richmond is one of his favorite tracks and the results bear that out. Dillon has four top 10’s in six races since he ran a Goodyear tire test here in 2017. In 2019 when Dillon finished 22nd, he was involved in an early race wreck that left him four laps down and fighting back through the field. I see Dillon as a top 10 driver, with top 5 upside on Sunday.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,900 – P12) – Bowman won the spring race here. Cole Custer ($7,300 – P21), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – P28) – Matty D is once again a PD play, but the price is higher than I would’ve liked.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,700) – P23: Stenhouse is pretty good at this track type with an avg finish 14.7 and an avg speed ranking of 16th. I see Stenhouse as low to mid teens driver today
2. Ryan Newman ($6,000) – P24: Recent history shows Newman has not been great at Richmond, but career wise this is one of his better tracks. Newman has been good recently this season with three top 15 finishes in his last 4 races.
3. Daniel Suarez ($6,90) – P22: Richmond is one of Suarez’s better tracks. If you subract his 2020 finish here (uncompetitive car) Suarez has finished 18th or better in every race here and has an avg finish of 12.7.
4. Erik Jones ($6,600) – P31: Here we go again, Erik Jones is, on paper, a good play today. Jones has finished 19th (twice) and 20th at the three flat tracks this season and has an avg speed ranking of 22nd.
5. JJ Yeley ($5,300) – P37: Yeley starts dead last today and is super cheap (on both sites). This season in 5 races in the #53 car Yeley has an average finish of 27th. I look for Yeley to be a mid 20’s driver this week.
6. Corey Lajoie ($5,500) – P25: Lajoie should finish right around where he starts, which would be good value for his salary. At the last two similar tracks, Lajoie has finished 21st and 23rd.
7. Chase Briscoe ($6,500) – P26: Briscoe has improved throughout the season and looks like a top 25 car on Saturday. This season at similar track types Briscoe has an avg finish of 23.7
8. Justin Haley ($5,200) – P29: Haley only has one Cup start here and it only lasted one lap. But at similar tracks this season, Haley has finishes of 24th and 28th. Haley has been good here in the Xfinity Series and should been viewed as a mid 20’s finisher on Saturday.

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