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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
We are back with another short flat race track in the state of Virginia this weekend. After a fun, exciting, and profitable race weekend in Martinsville last week the NASCAR Cup series moves north to Richmond. Last season at Richmond it was a caution free race (outside of stage breaks) but I don’t see that happening again this weekend. One unusual thing we saw last season was that six of the top eight DraftKings point scorers started inside the top 10. This is definitely something to keep in mind when building your lineups for Sundays race.
This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400)
Starting Position: 1st
*** GPP CORE PLAY ***
Last week we saw Truex come on late and earn his second win of the season, his first coming at Phoenix a track very similar to Richmond. Truex led 64 laps at Phoenix this season and over the last four races at short flat tracks Truex has a win (2021 Phoenix) three top 5’s and a 4th place average finish. Since 2018 Truex has yet to finish lower than 3rd here and has won 2 of the last 3 races at Richmond. In 6 of the last 8 races at Richmond Truex has led 109 or more laps and has an average finish of 1.8 in his last 4 races here. If you can’t tell, I LOVE Truex this week!
Joey Logano ($10,600)
Starting Position: 5th
If anyone can take Martin Truex down this week, it might just be Logano. Joey Logano is a two-time Richmond winner who has been one of the most dominant drivers at this track over the years. Since 2014, Logano has finished top 10 in 11 of 13 races and top 15 in all 13 races. Since the start of last season, Logano has been top 4 in every race at this track type in total speed, including being the fastest car at Phoenix this season.
Kyle Larson ($10,300)
Starting Position: 6th
Larson has already had plenty of success here in lesser equipment, so there is no doubt in my mind that he should have a good day here on Sunday. Over the last 5 races this season, Larson ranks 5th overall in total speed (he’d be top 3 if you take out Bristol: Dirt). Larson does have a win here and has finished no worse than 7th in 5 of his last 6 races at Richmond.
Chase Elliott ($9,700)
Starting Position: 3rd
*** CASH CORE PLAY ***
Elliott is underpriced on both sites this week and will most likely be semi-chalky. This is one of the few tracks that Elliott has never won at, but Sunday could be his day. Elliott has three top 5’s in his last five Richmond races though. We all know how well Elliott did at Phoenix last season when he won the last race and the championship, he also came from the rear of the field to finish 5th earlier this season at Phoenix. I think Elliot is a dark horse candidate to unseat the Richmond regulars and get his win.
Ranking the remaining top tier drivers:
- Denny Hamlin ($11,000 – P2) – We can pretty much play Hamlin every week. He will lead laps on Sunday and could finally get to victory lane this season
- Brad Keselowski ($12,000 – P20) – *** CASH CORE PLAY *** Keselowski is another great Richmond driver and should compete for the win. Keselowski let 192 laps on his way to winning this race last fall
- Kyle Busch ($10,000 – P10) – Busch is another great play for Sunday and is the only top driver who raced in the Truck Series race so he knows how the track is running. We could see a top 5 from Busch on Sunday
- Kevin Harvick ($9,400 – P9) – Harvick and the entire SHR team have not had a good season. I need to see them, especially Harvick, perform well before I will roster them, especially Harvick.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Austin Dillon ($7,600)
Starting Position: 11th
*** GPP CORE PLAY ***
Dillon is another driver who has been very consistent when it comes to Richmond. Dillon has finished top 6 In three of his last four races at Richmond including last season. In 2020, Dillon finished 4th after leading 4 laps and had an average run position of 5.8.
Alex Bowman ($8,800)
Starting Position: 24th
Bowman has great upside on Sunday starting P24 even though he doesn’t have a great past here. Last season’s race here at Richmond Bown has his career-best finish at this track when he came home13th. Bowman isn’t a core GPP play, but the upside seems limited, so I wouldn’t consider Bowman as a core play this week.
William Byron ($8,500)
Starting Position: 4th
Byron is one of the best drivers when it comes to speed this season, but most people may not realize this. In 2021, Byron ranks third in the last five races when it comes to total speed rankings. Byron was a top ten car according to the speed rankings, and it showed when he finished 8th. I think we need a top 5 from Byron for him to make value, but I think that is very possible.
Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,800), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,000), Tyler Reddick ($7,200, Kurt Busch ($8,300), Erik Jones ($7,600)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Ricky Stenhouse ($6,200) – P14 *** CASH CORE PLAY*** I think Stenhouse is underpriced this week. He isn’t great at Richmond usually, but he is having a great season and could get to a top 10
- Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P27 *** GPP CORE PLAY *** Suarez has been a bright spot in the series the past few weeks. At Phoenix earlier, Suarez finished 21st, but his team has seemed to figure something out and has top 20 potential this week.
- Ross Chastain ($6,000) – P18: Chastain finished 18th at Phoenix this season and was 22nd in total speed ranking. I think Chastain is cheap and has some small PD upside
- Michael McDowell ($5,800) – P23: McDowell has come back down to earth after his early-season run. Even with that being said, I think a top 15 is possible with attrition
- Justin Haley ($5,200) – P34: Haley is in a spot where he can give you a plus 10 PD on Sunday. At Phoenix, Haley finished 24th and has been averaging a 26.6 finish this season.
- Chris Buescher ($6,100) – P12: I wish Buescher was cheaper or starting further back but it is what it is. I think Buescher is probably at best around a 15th place car this week.
- Ryan Preece ($5,600) – P25: With attrition Preece could finish top 20, but a low to mid 20’s finish is more likely. Over the last year, Preece averages a 22.5 finish at these track types
- Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P36: Do I love Lajoie, no. Will I have some exposure? Most likely. I think Lajoie can finish top 30 and provide some value.
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