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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
No, your eyes are not deceiving you, this is another Cup Series article for this weekend. We saw a crazy finish on Saturday and we hope for another exciting race on Sunday. Kyle Larson was set to win his fourth straight race on Saturday but as he came around turn 3 his left front tire went flat and sent him into the wall. Larson did manage to finish 9th but that gave teammate Alex Bowman the victory.
When I go through the lineup for Sunday there are a lot of plays that would be considered chalk plays. With so many of these types of plays, they all can’t be chalk so that makes this race more interesting. I think a lot of the top plays in this race will be spread out and keep ownership down, but also some of the good drivers starting towards the front will go completely overlooked and could be the key to a big payday on Sunday.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
William Byron ($9,000)
Starting Position: 18th
Byron was one of the best cars on Saturday and will be in the running for the win on Sunday again. On Saturday Byron ran 115 of 130 laps in the top 15, led 13 laps, and had 11 fastest laps. I know I told you not to chase dominator points at Pocono, and we aren’t. But if we can happen to get some of those points while rostering one of the best plays and the top FPTS/$ driver on the slate why shouldn’t we.
Kyle Busch ($11,000)
Starting Position: 19th
Kyle Busch led to most laps on Saturday at Pocono for the 5th time in the last 9 races at Pocono and will be a threat again on Sunday. I only rank Byron ahead of Busch in this tier because of the $2K salary difference. I plan on playing Busch and Byron together a lot on Sunday. With the way things worked out on Saturday we can build a pretty great-looking lineup with these two drivers and only having to use ONE value play.
Kyle Larson ($12,800)
Starting Position: 12th
Larson was set to win his 4th straight on Saturday until his right front tire decided otherwise. Like I said in the open, Larson cut a tire down on the final turn of the race which cost him the victory. On Sunday I expect Larson to be determined and drive his car harder than he has all season to get the victory. Larson will be scored from 12th on Sunday but will start at the rear because he is going to his backup car which isn’t too much of a concern for me. I will probably lower my ownership of Larson on Sunday but he is in no way a fade candidate for me
Denny Hamlin ($10,500)
Starting Position: 17th
Pocono is one of Denny Hamlin’s favorite tracks and he had another great day here on Saturday. Hamlin has 6 career wins at Pocono, his most at any track, and on Saturday he had his fourth straight top 5 and fifth straight top 10. I think there is an outside chance that Hamlin finally gets his first win of 2021 on Sunday.
Chase Elliott ($10,200)
Starting Position: 9th
Elliott had one of the best cars on Saturday even though it was a rocky start to the race. Early on Elliott had made contact with Ryan Preece but would recover and finish 9th. Elliott was not an easy car to pass on Saturday as he was only passed under green 29 times, 3rd least in the race, only Custer and Hill had less but Custer went out early and Hill was in the back all day so there was no one to pass him. Besides being hard to pass, he also made the most green flag passes (103).
I also have a lot of interest in Joey Logano ($9,700 – P14), Kevin ($10,000 – P13), and Ryan Blaney ($9,200 – P16)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Alex Bowman ($8,700)
Starting Position: 20th
As a long-time fan of the 48 team, I would love to see a sweep from Bowman this weekend but I don’t think it happens. Do I think he can come away with another top 5 and ending up in the optimal lineup on Sunday, yes. Bowman didn’t dominate in his win on Saturday, honestly, nobody really dominated this race, but he did lead 16 laps and his car was fast all day.
Ross Chastain ($7,700)
Starting Position: 33rd
Chastain was having another solid day before he got some damage early on Saturday afternoon at Pocono and finished a lap down in 33rd. I do think that Chastain will be one of the highest owned drivers but I am willing to eat the potential chalk. Chastain opens up a lot of other options and is part of the build I mentioned earlier with Busch and Byron.
Kurt Busch ($8,500)
Starting Position: 15th
I want to say that I love Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – P32) in this same spot on Sunday and he will be in plenty of my lineups. Matty D will be another of the higher owned plays, someone who won’t be is Kurt Busch. On Saturday Busch ran a hell of a race and finished 6th. Busch’s 6th place finish was his third straight top 10 after a string of 12 races without a top 10.
Other Options: Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – P32), Chase Briscoe ($7,900) – P24)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Ryan Newman ($5,500) – P37: Newman killed our lineups on Saturday but that won’t be the case on Sunday. First, DK dropped his price by $300, and second, he is starting 18 spots lower. Newman will bounce back and is cheap enough to help you get all the top tier and mid-tier plays in
- Austin Dillon ($6,600) – P21: Speaking of DK dropping prices, Dillon sees a $1,100 price decrease and is starting 9 spots lower. I love this play and will have a good amount of Dillon on Sunday
- Cole Custer ($6,800) – P38: Custer is another driver who drowned our hopes on Saturday but like with Newman he starts so far back (dead last in this case) that he can’t hurt us and should be one of your top choices from this tier
- Tyler Reddick ($6,900) – P10: Reddick is the risky play of this tier today, but if you are doing multiple lineups he is worth taking a shot on with his top 10 upside
- Corey Lajoie ($5,900) – P36: Lajoie had a down day, but I think he bounces back on Sunday.
- Erik Jones ($5,700) – P22: Jones had a really fast car on Saturday but faded at the end of the day. Jones will one of the higher owned plays in the value tier, that is why I have him at this spot instead of higher up.
- Ryan Preece ($5,300) – P23: Preece starts a little higher than we’d like, but he is so cheap that we can take a small minus in place differential and still get the value from Preece.
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