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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
Thank you!
As this is the last race for all three NASCAR series’ this weekend I just wanted to take a minute to thank everyone for reading my article throughout the season. I also want to thank everyone for interacting with me in discord each and every weekend and for making this our best season ever. I will miss the races each weekend, but luckily NASCAR has an incredibly short offseason and we will be back on Sunday, February 6th for the NASCAR Clash from the Los Angeles Coliseum! Hopefully, GravMatt52 and IDrago15 can get tickets and get to enjoy the show!
On with the show!
Phoenix is a short flat track that runs similar to Richmond and New Hampshire so those are two places where we can look at results to see how drivers ran in conjunction with Phoenix. Last season at the championship race the four contenders finished in the top four positions and don’t be surprised to see that happen on Sunday. It is important to look at drivers who have run well here in the past as well as the other tracks mentioned above. Earlier this season Championship 4 contender Martin Truex Jr. led just 64 laps but won, barely beating out Joey Logano who led a race-high 143 laps.
Practice and qualifying are back!
This week we have live practice and qualifying for the finale, as it should be. We will get to see who has a good car and who needs to work on theirs before they hit the track on Sunday afternoon. I have also added a tier for the Championship 4 for this race. My strategy will most likely be to get two of these drivers into your lineups on Sunday. Stacking 3 of them may be difficult because the value tier is not particularly deep for this race.
NASCAR DFS: Championship 4
(Listed in salary order)
Kyle Larson ($11,500)
Starting Position: 1st
2021 has been the year of Kyle Larson as he redeems himself. Larson is the clear and obvious favorite for the championship coming into Sunday’s finale and is priced accordingly. In practice on Friday, Larson ran the second-fastest lap, was the best in 5 lap average, and late in the session he managed to run the top line well and had the 2nd best 10 lap average. It will be hard to bet against the 5 team on Sunday, and I wouldn’t suggest doing so.
Denny Hamlin ($11,000)
Starting Position: 6th
Hamlin is widely considered the best driver in NASCAR to never win a title, and I think he can keep that moniker after Sunday’s race. Personally, I would love to see Hamlin wreck on the first lap and go home with a last-place finish (I’m a big fan of the 48 car and Alex Bowman). Now, that won’t happen, but instead, Hamlin should be running towards the front all day and I consider him a lock for a top 5. Hamlin has finished in the top 5 in four of the last five races here as well. In 2021, Hamlin has the best speed ranking at this track type, the best average running position (4.5), and led the most laps on average (109.5) per race.
Chase Elliott ($10,800)
Starting Position: 2nd
Obviously, Elliott has a good track history here considering he won the 2020 title on this very track by winning the race. In fact, Elliott has been the best driver at this track since NASCAR began running this package in 2020. In practice on Friday, Elliott had the 4th best 5 lap average, 3rd best 10 lap average, and the 2nd best 15 lap average. It would appear that Elliott and his team have set this car up to get better over the long run, which will see a lot of on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400)
Starting Position: 12th
After Larson, Truex is my favorite play in this race. Truex has been great at Phoenix in his career and won the last time the series was here. In 2021, Truex won here (like I mentioned), also won at Richmond, and has an average finish of 2.3 (if you take out his wreck in the rain at New Hampshire). Truex and the 19 team are running the same chassis that they ran at the spring Phoenix race and they have set this car up for the long run which was evident in practice as Truex has the best 15 lap average run. If you wanted to bet on someone else winning the championship on Sunday other than Larson, my money would be on MTJ.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier
Brad Keselowski ($9,100)
Starting Position: 11th
Keselowski was great in practice on Friday coming out of it with the best single lap average speed. This will be Kes’s last race in the #2 for Team Penske as he transitions to the #6 next season. Keselowski will want to go out on top and if practice is any indication he will be a threat on Sunday. I am particularly interested in Keselowski because of his price. He makes the two Champ 4 driver builds easier to make work. Keselowski has back-to-back top 5’s here and has an average finish of 6.8 in his last four races here.
Ryan Blaney ($9,500)
Starting Position: 4th
Blaney is another driver who has both run well at Phoenix and looked fast in practice, oh and he also is too cheap but helps us make the builds we want, work. In practice on Friday, Blaney came out with the 7th best single lap, 2nd best 5 lap average, and the best 10 lap average. Blaney’s car is also set up for the long run as they were one of two teams to run 20 consecutive laps in which he was the faster of the two. I expect Ryan Blaney to be a top 10 car with top 5 upside on Sunday.
Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($9,300 – P9) – Harvick is a NINE-time winner at Phoenix. Kyle Busch ($9,800 – P13)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Alex Bowman ($8,200)
Starting Position: 14th
Bowman was dominant at this race back in 2016 leading 194 laps from the pole, but since then it has not been great for him. In 2021 though, Bowman has excelled at this track type including a victory at the first Richmond race and finishing between 9th and 13th in the other three races. Bowman finished 13th in the spring race here, his best finish since another 13th place finish since the spring race of 2018. Bowman looks to be a top 10 contender on Sunday but is more likely to finish in the low teens.
Bubba Wallace ($7,700)
Starting Position: 25th
Wallace has been strong at Phoenix over the last two seasons with three straight top 20 finishes. In the spring race here, Wallace finished 16th. Wallace was 5th best late in a run in the race as well as having the 13th best speed ranking. I view Wallace as a mid teens driver on Sunday. Listen, there are better drivers in this tier but my goal is to help you build lineups and you can’t get two $10K+ drivers and two $8.5K drivers either so drivers like Wallace help us get the top tier guys we want.
Joey Logano ($8,900)
Starting Position: 10th
Logano is a top 5 car for me on Sunday, but we will need to sacrifice either Keselowski or Blaney to fit in Logano. I am not opposed to that strategy though. Logano has been good at Phoenix in the past and at this track type in 2021 he has been the best, literally. In 2021, Logano has finished in the top 5 in every race at short flat tracks (the only driver in the series to do so) and has the best average finish in the series with a 3.5. Logano won here in the spring race in 2020 and has finished between 1st and 3rd in the last three races here. In practice on Friday, Logano never made a long run but the other Penske cars did and they were fast so I expect Logano to be just as fast on Sunday.
Other Options: Austin Dillon ($7,300 – P23), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900 – P15), Christopher Bell ($8,700 – P8), Kurt Busch ($8,400 – P5)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Chris Buescher ($6,400) P26 – Buescher had the fastest car of this tier in practice on Friday. Half way through the practice session Buescher was 19th, but he ended up with the 17th best single lap and the 15th best 10 lap average.
- Daniel Suarez ($6,800) P17- Suarez projects as a mid-teens driver for me on Sunday. While his car was not that fast on Friday, but he has been good at this track type in 2021. Suarez has an average finish of 18.5 at short flat tracks and has not finished lower than 21st in any of the four races.
- Chase Briscoe ($6,200) P22 – Briscoe was running in the low teens in the spring here but had a pit road speeding penalty late and ended up finishing 22nd. At Richmond a few weeks ago, Briscoe finished 16th, his best finish at this track type in 2021. I view Briscoe as a mid teens driver on Sunday.
- Ryan Preece ($5,800) P31 – Preece hasn’t performed well at Phoenix but he is usually a mid-twenties driver. I expect much of the same from Preece on Sunday
- Justin Haley ($5,600) P29 – Haley finished 24th in his only Cup Series race at Phoenix. Haley finished mid to high twenties in the other races at this track type in 2021 and should be considered to finish around the same.
- Garrett Smithley ($4,600) P38 – Smithley isn’t to do much in this race, but he could pull out a top 30. Realistically, Smithley is a low 30’s driver which may just be enough to make value.
Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!
