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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
This week we are out in the desert for the Instacart 500 from Phoenix Raceway! Looking back to last week quickly we saw Kyle Larson ($9,600) dominate the second half of the race from Vegas and get the win. Phoenix is another great track for Larson, so this won’t be the last time you see his name in this article.
Also last week we had Kevin Harvick ($11,900) as absolute chalk that completely busted. This week Harvick is the highest priced driver starting from P18 which will make people have to decide if they want to play Harvick at his elevated price.
This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Chase Elliott ($11,500)
Starting Position: 6th
Elliott is the defending series champion and won the fall race here championship weekend to clinch the title. We know this team knows to prepare dominant cars for this track and they will have one on Sunday. Elliott had 53 fastest laps and led 153 laps (49% of the race) at this race in November, both were the most by any driver. In the spring he was just as dominant leading more laps than anyone (93) and had more fastest laps than the field as well (60). Basically, Elliott should dominate this race on Sunday and I don’t fear his high price tag.
Brad Keselowski ($10,400)
Starting Position: 1st
Keselowski has never won at Phoenix, but this could be his week. Last week at Vegas, Keselowski was the fastest car but just couldn’t get to Larson to get the victory. It was a similar situation for the #2 Penske Ford at Phoenix last season where he was the fastest car (tied with Elliott). Elliott dominated the middle of the race, but Keselowski was the fastest car in the final 80 laps but just couldn’t get to Elliott. I really like what Keselowski has done this season and I think this may be his week to get his first Phoenix win.
Kyle Larson ($9,600)
Starting Position: 2nd
Coming off his first win in 2021, Larson will start 2nd and I think he is honestly underpriced for what he could potentially do at this race. Last spring Larson finished 4th in the #42 Chip Ganassi Chevy which isn’t nearly as good as the car he will be in on Sunday. Larson’s speed ranking was 11th, but he came on strong at the end of the race and was the 4th fastest car in the finally 80 or so laps.
Joey Logano ($11,100)
Starting Position: 9th
Logano is priced up on Sunday but I like that because it could keep his ownership down. Last season at this race Logano came home with victory after leading 60 laps and having ranked 3rd in speed in the race. Logano was also strong in the fall where he finished 3rd and led 125 laps (second to Elliott). In 2020 on similar flat short tracks like this one nobody was better than the 22 team. Logano had a 2.8 average finish, finished in the top 4 in EVERY race, and ranked as the 4th fastest car overall. Logano should definitely be a factor for the win and a plethora of dominator points on Sunday.
5 – Denny Hamlin ($9,900) – P3: I really do like Hamlin this week, but I think he may be somewhat chalky and there are better options around him this week
6 – Kyle Busch ($10,800) – P7: Busch finally had a good showing in Vegas last week. I haven’t decided if I will have a lot or none of Kyle in this race, but I think his ownership will be down again this week
7- Kevin Harvick ($11,900) – P18: Harvick has won at Phoenix nine times, and we cannot overlook that stat. I don’t love the price, but I do love the possible place differential upside.
Top Tier Place Differential Play: Aric Almirola ($9,000) – P30
Almirola has been in a slump to start the year, but he is at a track where he’s had success. In the 4 flat short track races last season, Alrimola finished inside the top 13 in each race and had an average finish of 9th. I thought Almirola would be priced higher so he will be chalky, but this could be good chalk that I don’t mind eating.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Christopher Bell ($8,100)
Starting Position: 4th
I don’t think anyone will play Bell this week based on his starting position, but that is why I have him as my top mid-tier play. Bell is in some of the best equipment in the series and should compete for a top 10, maybe even a top 5 on Sunday. Last season at similar tracks Bell fared well in inferior equipment. At New Hampshire Bell was the tenth fastest car, and then at Richmond Bell ranked 14th. This season alone Bell has had fastest laps, led laps, or both in every race and I think that is an indicator of how well he has been doing in 2021 and I am not afraid to put him in my lineups on Sunday.
William Byron ($8,300)
Starting Position: 10th
Byron has been good at Phoenix, especially last year when he came home with two top 10 finishes in two races here. In 2021 so far, Byron has been one of the best drivers with two straight top 10’s including the win at Homestead. At short flat tracks like Phoenix, Byron has finished inside the top 15 in 9 of his 14 races at these tracks. Byron had a 13.25-speed ranking last season at similar tracks and was top 13 in all races with the exception of Richmond. Byron is practically a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, barring unforeseen circumstances obviously.
Matt DiBenedetto ($8,500)
Starting Position: 20th
DiBenedetto is actually one of the top drivers at Phoenix, and short flat tracks in general. Over his last three Phoenix races, DiBenedetto has an average finishing position of 11.3 and an average running position of 11.6. At similar style tracks in 2020, DiBenedetto had the 7th best speed ranking (9.5) and had an average finish of 11th (8th best in the series)
Mid Tier Place Differential Play: Tyler Reddick ($7,900) – P23
Reddick was a top 10 contender last season at short flat tracks and had a total speed ranking of 12th. Last season at the first Phoenix race Reddick had the 8th best speed ranking and was top 10 most of the day but a late-race wreck relegated him to a 33rd place finish.
Other Options: Kurt Busch ($7,700), Alex Bowman ($8,700), Austin Dillon ($7,400), Bubba Wallace ($7,200)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Cole Custer ($6,700) – P24: Custer was a top 15 driver at these tracks last season
- Ricky Stenhouse ($5,500) – P11: Stenhouse starts high in the field, but he is cheap and was top 20 here last Spring until he got busted for speeding on pit road
- Chris Buescher ($6,400) – P17: Buescher has five straight top 20’s at Phoenix
- Anthony Alfredo ($5,800) – P28: Alfredo has low twenties potential as he has been improving his finishes each week.
- Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P16: McDowell is having a career year and this is his home track and a top 20 is on the cards
- Daniel Suarez ($5,900) – P27: Suarez finished 21st here last spring, he is in better equipment this season.
- Ryan Newman ($6,600) – P19: Short-track racing has been some of Newman’s best tracks and he hasn’t finished lower than 24th here since 2016
- Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P33: If Lajoie can avoid more issues with his car he can easily come home top 25, but that’s a big IF.
- Ross Chastain ($6,900) – P22: Chastain has an average speed ranking of 15.5 in 2021, and if things go well for Chastain he could pull a top 15.
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