NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series New Hampshire 7/18

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Sunday’s race will be the last for a couple of weeks while NASCAR (is forced) takes a break for the Olympics. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is located in Loudon, New Hampshire, and is a short, flat track similar to Phoenix and Richmond. Track position is key here and generally drivers starting inside the top 10 dominate this race. It’s not just here that drivers starting towards the front tend to dominate, it’s the same at all similar tracks this season. Only once this season (Dover) has anyone starting lower than 9th led more than 50 laps at short, flat tracks while running the 750 HP package.

One thing to note for this race is that I plan on going with more of a balanced build.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Denny Hamlin ($10,000)

Starting Position: 6th

If it’s a short and flat track then Denny Hamlin is your man. This season at similar tracks Denny has been outstanding leading 207 laps and finishing second at Richmond. At Phoenix, Hamlin wasn’t as dominant but he did lead 33 laps and finished third. Hamlin has been one of the best at New Hampshire as well. Coming into Sunday, Hamlin has back-to-back 2nd place finishes and led 205 laps combined. Hamlin will definitely be in contention for the win on Sunday in my opinion.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,100)

Starting Position: 2nd

Truex like Hamlin has been dominant at Loudon, but unlike Hamlin, Truex has never won here. Even though he hasn’t won here, Truex does have the best average finishing position of any driver in the field here over the last six races (4.7) and the best average running position (5.6). Truex has also led the most laps on average here in that same span, averaging nearly 79 laps led per race. At similar tracks, this season Truex has led 171 laps and finished 5th at Richmond, and won at Phoenix.

Kyle Busch ($10,900)

Starting Position: 1st

There is a pretty good chance Busch dominants the early segment of this race before eventually falling back into the back. I say he will fall back, but the last time Kyle was on the pole at New Hampshire he led 187 laps and won (2017-2) so maybe I’m wrong about that. In the last 13 races here Busch has seven top 5’s. ten top 10’s, two wins, and has only finished lower than 12th twice.

Brad Keselowski ($9,300)

Starting Position: 11th

Keselowski is the reigning winner of this race and should be a factor again on Sunday. If you are looking to pay up in this tier then I would recommend Kyle Busch being paired with his JGR teams I mentioned before him. But if you want to go more balanced but with a similar upside, then Keselowski is your man. In the last five races here, Keselowski has four top 5’s and an average finish of 4.4.

Kyle Larson ($11,200)

Starting Position: 10th

Larson has come back down to earth recently after he owned the series through May and June. DraftKings still has him priced up, but that doesn’t scare me off him, yet. Larson has performed well at New Hampshire and short flat tracks in general. This season at similar tracks Larson has finished 7th at Phoenix while having the 4th best total speed ranking. Larson finished second in two of his last four races at Loudon as well. I think another top 5 is in the cards for Larson on Sunday.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($9,500 – P15) – Has some potential PD upside and is fairly inexpensive. Chase Elliott ($9,800 – P3) – Raced in the Nashville SRX race on Saturday, is fatigue an issue? Either way, he is cheap.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($7,700)

Starting Position: 9th

Bell is surprisingly projecting as the highest owned driver. I guess I shouldn’t be that surprised considering the day he had on Saturday as well as his price. Bell was pretty dominant on Saturday leading more than half the race (151 laps) and heading back to victory lane for the third time in three races at Loudon. I don’t know if Bell can do the same with more talented field of drivers on Sunday but I don’t doubt he can pull off a top 5.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,100)

Starting Position: 29th

I know a lot of you don’t like playing Stenhouse, and I get that, but this season is different. Stenhouse has only finished outside the top 20 five times in 20 races, three of which were for mechanical issues with his car and one one from a wreck he didn’t cause. At similar tracks this season Stenhouse has finishes of 12th (Phoenix) and 17th (Richmond). Last season at NHMS, Stenhouse finished 14th.

Kurt Busch ($8,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Kurt Busch was written off a few months back and then he and the 1 team decided to go on an absolute tear. Busch has finished top 8 in five of his last six races including last weeks victory in Atlanta. This season at short flat tracks, Busch has finished top 15 in both races and he is a three time winner at New Hampshire. Busch will most likely be very low owned again this week and could pair nicely with a three cheap dominator build.

Other Options: Aric Almirola ($8,400 – P22) – Don’t sleep on this team. It’s been a bad season but they have finishes of 11th and 6th at similar tracks this season. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 – P14) – Matty D is driving for a job in 2022 and has back-to-back top 10’s. DiBenedetto also has finishes of 14th and 9th at similar tracks in 2021. Ryan Newman ($7,200 – P28) – Is a great and a perceived more consistent pivot off Stenhouse. Newman has not been good at similar tracks and only has one finished better than 22nd in his last 9

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

This week the value tier is not great, in fact it’s barely good, so this is why I said I prefer a balanced build because I don’t want to have too much exposure to this tier.

1. Erik Jones ($6,700) – P24: I expect Jones to be a top 20 driver on Sunday like he was early this season at Richmond and Phoenix. Jones won’t set the world on fire but for his price and where he can finish he will be a nice low owned compliment to my high owned top tier drivers
2. Cole Custer ($6,300) – P21: Custer does start a little higher then I’d like but he has top 20 potnetial. Last season in his first Cup Series start at Loudon Custer finished 8th. I am not expecting another top 10, but a top 15 is possible.
3. Tyler Reddick ($6,800) – P8: Reddick has three straight top 10’s and is underpriced in my opinion. Reddick wasn’t great at short flat tracks this season, but this team is much improved since then and should be in contention for a top 10.
4. Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P18: Wallace has been running great recently with an average finish of 13.2 in the nine non road course races since Dover. This team is heating up and I think Wallace could finish around that 13 average
5. Chase Briscoe ($6,000) – P19: Briscoe finished 22nd at both short flat tracks this year but this team is improving each week and a top 20 is where I see Briscoe finishing this week.
6. Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P23: McDowell has top 20 upside, but I think there are better options in this tier for around the same price.
7. Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P26: Lajoie has been better than expected so far in 2021 after a very slow start. Since the series was at COTA, Lajoie only has one finish lower than 23rd (Pocono 1).
8. Quin Houff ($4,500) – P36: This makes me sick to write but yes, Quin Houff is actually an option this week. Houff finished 32nd and 34th at similar tracks this season and has finished of 32nd and 31st at his two previous NHMS races.
9. Justin Haley ($4,700) – P30: Like Houff I do not like this play, but he has been pretty decent of late and is in line for an 8th straight top 30 finish (when he doesn’t have car problems). Haley also finished 24th at Phoenix, but at Richmond he only completed one lap before having engine issues.

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