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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
For the first time in a very long time, the NASCAR Cup Series is racing at a new oval track for the first time. Nashville has hosted numerous other racing series but never America’s premier racing series, until now.
As we saw this weekend with the Truck Series and Xfinity Series passing is not easy and tire wear is real. Looking over the results from the weekend you will see that only 11 total drivers started outside the top 20 in both races but finished in the top 20 (6 in Truck, 5 in Xfinity). No drivers in the Xfinity who started lower than 29th were able to crack the top 20. My whole reason for going into this is to tell you to focus on fitting in the drivers you want to pay up for, and then see what fits as far as value.
This will sound very similar to the Xfinity article, but there is one team that is just far and away faster than the rest of the field, but unlike the Xfinity race it’s not the Joe Gibbs Toyota’s. Hendrick Motorsports four Chevy’s dominated practice on Saturday with all four running top 10 speeds. Larson and Byron even managed to run the same time on a lap (top lap overall) down to the one-hundredth of a second. Most weeks the Hendrick cars are fast and this week looks to be no different.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Kyle Larson ($11,800)
Starting Position: 5th
Larson is $1,100 more than the next driver in salary and I do not care. I want to play a ton of Larson on Sunday, maybe not 100%, but pretty damn close to that. Larson was great in practice on the long run which is key at a track where passing is difficult. In practice on Saturday, Larson was tops in 5, 10, and 15 lap average. Every week it seems like Kyle Larson and the 5 team dominate the field and this week should be no different. If you are playing cash you need LOCK Larson into your lineups and even in GPP’s, he is a must-play for me. His ownership could be lowered because of his price, so he could actually give you some small leverage on the field.
Kyle Busch ($9,900)
Starting Position: 2nd
Busch has a great history at Nashville in a lower series, including his win on Saturday. Any time a driver can get extra track time no matter the vehicle it is a good thing and that’s what we have with Busch. Coming into this weekend Busch has seven top 10’s in his last nine races, including his win at Kansas, and he has led laps in seven races out of nine as well.
William Byron ($9,700)
Starting Position: 4th
Byron has been one of the most consistent drivers in the Cup Series this season and I anticipate that consistency continues on Sunday. In 2021, Byron has an average finish of 5.4 and has finished top 10 in EVERY race outside of road courses and the Daytona 500. Byron was 2nd best in 5 lap average and 10th best in 10 lap average on Saturday as well as running an identical lap to Larson for top single lap speed overall.
Chase Elliott ($10,700)
Starting Position: 6th
After a sluggish start, the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Champion has kicked it into full gear. Elliott has six straight top 10 finishes and four straight finishes of 3rd or better. At similar tracks this season with the same 750 HP package, Elliott has finishes of 3rd and 7th. As long as he can avoid the wrecks I can see Elliott coming home with a 7th straight top 10 and a 5th straight top 5.
Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,300 – P8), Kevin Harvick ($9,100 – P12), Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400 – P35): Truex will be super chalk now that he is starting so far back and actually may be the safer play over Larson in cash now.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Tyler Reddick ($8,600)
Starting Position: 26th
Reddick is another driver who had some seat time in a race this weekend in Nashville. On Saturday, Reddick ran in the Xfinity race and ended up finishing 15th driving the #31 for Jordan Anderson. Reddick ran a top 5 single lap speed in practice on Saturday in his #8 RCR Chevy and also had the 4th best 10 lap average. At Dover and Darlington this year Reddick has finishes of 8th and 12th.
Kurt Busch ($8,300)
Starting Position: 30th
Busch was good in practice on Saturday running the 6th best single lap speed but had a poor qualifying effort after slipping in turn 2. Kurt was able to test here at Nashville earlier this year so he has a small leg up on the field with that. At Dover earlier this year Busch came home with a 13th place finish would be a great finish today and put him in the optimal lineup for sure.
Ross Chastain ($7,600)
Starting Position: 19th
Chastain should be fast at Nashville on Sunday with some good place differential upside. In practice on Saturday, Chastain had the 4th best 5 lap average and the 2nd best 10 and 15 lap average. Chastain seems to have a car that gets faster as the laps tick off. One thing is Chastain could carry some ownership, based on his practice speed and poor qualifying effort, but I still want to have some exposure to him.
Other Options: Austin Dillon ($8,100 – P28), Ryan Blaney ($8,700 – P10), Chris Buescher ($7,400 – P17)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Ryan Newman ($6,800) – P29: Newman will be the cash-game play in this tier today and should put out a solid performance today. In practice on Saturday Newman were top 10 in single lap and 10 lap avg
- Daniel Suarez ($6,300) – P22: Suarez has been enjoying a good season in his first year in the #99. At Dover earlier this season Suarez finished 9th which is a good sign for how he can run on Sunday
- Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P21: Wallace, like Suarez, had great success at Dover finishing 11th (season-best finish). In his last four races, Wallace has finished 14th or better in three.
- Chase Briscoe ($6,200) – P16: Briscoe also tested here earlier this season and that could help him on Sunday. Looking at where he starts, Briscoe is a GPP play only.
- Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P24: Lajoie has been getting better over the last two months. In his last 8 races, Lajoie has finished 22nd or better in six of those races. Projects at sub 10% today making him one of my favorite GPP value targets
- Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P20: Preece won the Truck race here on Friday and should hang around the top 20 most of the day. I love the price for Preece this week and that combined with track experience landed him on this list today.
- JJ Yeley ($5,500) – P32: The veteran driver raced here twice this weekend. He has decent upside if you need the savings
- Quin Houff ($4,500) – P39: I rarely ever think Houff belongs on the track, let alone in your DFS lineup, but here we are. Houff starts dead last and with attrition, he could finish around the low 30’s which would make value easily at his low price.
Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!
