NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Daytona 8/28

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Welcome to Daytona week, where the only thing that really matters is place differential. This week is different than any other oval or road course. High speeds, blocking, and drafting will lead to many, many wrecks. This is the last race of the regular season and what is typically a wild race will have the wild factor cranked to the max. There are multiple drivers trying to race their way into the final spot as well as the battle for the regular-season title. Both Kyle Larson ($9,000 – P1) and Denny Hamlin ($9,400 – P3) are in contention and this matters because of the playoff points earned for being the regular-season champion.

These wrecks that destroy multiple cars tend to happen in the front of the field because drivers are fighting for position so this is why we will generally play the place differential game. This race is a little different from the Xfinity race where we completely avoided the top 10, there are a couple of drivers who could be played.

Leaving Salary on the Table:

I know leaving salary on the table is a foreign concept to us DFS players, but in NASCAR, and especially at superspeedways, it is a necessary evil. When you look at the optimal lineup for that race you will notice that there was a substantial amount of salary remaining, in fact, there was $8,300 leftover. You will be tempted to upgrade in some spots with that much leftover, but you have to try and refrain. While talking about this weekend with other NASCAR people, it was said that if you like your lineup this weekend, you’re doing it wrong and I couldn’t agree more. You will build lineups this weekend and probably hate them and think you’ll need to make changes, but don’t. I will try to lead you on the right path to cashing this weekend.

As you can see below, you can leave anywhere from $1,000 to $2,400 on the table and get the takedown. With the way salaries were laid out for this race I think you could end up seeing an optimal with over $3,000 in leftover salary.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Joey Logano ($10,600)

Starting Position: 22nd

Logano is one of the best superspeedway racers in the series and had the Daytona 500 won until his teammate, Keselowski, spun him on the last lap. I expect Logano to be a top 5 finisher on Saturday night (weather permitting) and be in the lineup for most takedowns. Logano has the potential to lead some laps and even win this race and because of this, I plan on having plenty of exposure to him regardless of ownership.

Denny Hamlin ($9,400)

Starting Position: 3rd

I know Hamlin doesn’t fit my #StacktheBack narrative for this week but Hamlin has been in two straight optimal lineups at Daytona and I fully expect him to contend for the win on Saturday. Hamlin is a dominant performer at Daytona with nine top 5’s and three wins in the last 13 races.

Austin Dillon ($10,300)

Starting Position: 27th

Dillon will most likely be the most popular driver in this tier so I don’t blame you for fading him. I will have some exposure to Dillon, but he is semi-risky since he needs to win to get into the playoffs. Dillon has an average finish of 14.1 here in his last seven races including his win at the 2018 Daytona 500.

Aric Almirola ($9,300)

Starting Position: 19th

Almirola is another of the series best superspeedway drivers and is one of the best at handling the draft here. Earlier this season at the Duels, Almirola led 52 of 60 laps on his way to winning his duel. Unfortunately, Almirola got caught up in the big one on lap 13 of the 500 and that was the end of his day. Before this season Almirola had only 2 wins, both came at superspeedways.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kaz Grala ($8,900)

Starting Position: 38th

Grala is another driver who will be popular, but this one I don’t want to fade. At the Daytona 500 this season, Grala was having a great race before being caught up in a wreck with 85 laps remaining. Grala led 10 laps in February after starting from 40th, so getting through the field is no issue for Grala. I expect Grala to finish in the top 20, but if he avoids the potential carnage a top 10 could be on tap.

Corey Lajoie ($7,400)

Starting Position: 33rd

Lajoie is one of the best when it comes to avoiding the carnage at superspeedways, specifically Daytona. In his last four races at Daytona, Lajoie has three top 10 finishes. Lajoie is honestly too cheap for his upside, but I will eat the probable chalk here and not look back.

Landon Cassill ($7,100)

Starting Position: 39th

Cassill is quietly one of the best lower-priced drivers at Daytona. Since this race in July of 2015, Cassill has seven top 25 finishes in just eight races. Cassill is not in top-tier equipment but he is in the #96 Gaunt Bros. Toyota that has fared pretty well this season.

Other Options: Ross Chastain ($8,200 – P29): WAY too cheap for the upside here. Only reason I didn’t write him up more is because he will be chalky. Ryan Newman ($7,000 – P23): Newman is another good superspeedway guy who is priced lower than hw should given he has top 10 upside. Christopher Bell ($8,300 – P14), William Byron ($8,000 – P2), Daniel Suarez ($7,800 – P26), Ryan Blaney ($8,800 – P6)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P20: Bubba is the top value you play again this week and he shouldn’t be priced in this tier honestly. In eight races at Daytona, Wallace has only finished lower than 17th once and has three top 15’s in his last four.
2. Joey Gase ($5,000) – P37: How can you tell it’s a superspeedway week? Joey Gase is ranked in my article. Does Gase have good equipment? Not really. Is Gase a good driver? Not really. Is he good enough to drive around at the back and avoid all the carnage? Yes, yes he is. Gase has only finished outside the top 30 once in six starts, including a 20th place finish this year at the Daytona 500
3. Justin Haley ($5,500) – P28: Haley is a pretty great superspeedway racer and has two top 15 finishes in two Cup Series races at Daytona.
4. Garrett Smithley ($4,800) – P34: Smithley has never raced at Daytona in a Cup car, but he has had some small success at the Xfinity level.
5. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,000) – P12: Stenhouse is risky starting 12th but he does have a win here.
6. David Starr ($6,200) – P40: Starr is in a bad, slow car but this could be to his advantage has he just still in the back and avoid the carnage on his way to a top 20
7. Erik Jones ($6,300) – P21: Jones has not been great of late at Daytona, but he is a decent pivot off the chalky driver.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!