NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Michigan 8/22

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

So far this weekend has not gone to plan thanks to an abnormally large amount of wrecks, but maybe we can have a cleaner race on Sunday. I have two different paths to building lineups this week because of this. You can go with the place differential build, similar to a superspeedway style, except you can use more salary. There is a path that lets you avoid the value tier completely that is viable for single entry. Path two is hunting for dominator points and focusing your build around Kyle Larson ($11,500). I will be building multiple lineups with both styles of builds, but if you are only building one lineup then I would go with the track position build.

Michigan is a low tire wear 2-mile track that runs the 550 hp package. I look at how drivers have performed this season at similar track types like Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Kansas.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Starting Position:1st

Nobody has been better this season at low tire wear tracks in 2021 than Kyle Larson. Like I said in the open if you are building a dominator lineup Larson is the key to your builds. Larson won at both Las Vegas and Charlotte this season and should have won at Kansas if not for a late caution. Starting on the pole, Larson should dominate the early portion of this race, if not the majority of the race. Larson is my pick to win this race.

Brad Keselowski ($9,800)

Starting Position: 20th

Keselowski is my favorite play in this tier to build for the place differential build. I know it has been a rough two weeks at the road courses for Keselowski, but he is back at a track he knows well, actually his home track. While he has never won at his home track, Keselowski has three top 6 finishes in the last five races here, and was making a pass for the lead last season in race #2 here but ended up wrecking out of the race. Keselowski also has ten top 10 finishes in his last 14 races here.

Kyle Busch ($10,800)

Starting Position: 7th

Busch has been outstanding at low tire wear tracks since the races here at Michigan last season. In eight races over that span, Busch has two victories, seven, yes SEVEN top 5’s, and his worst result is 6th. Busch has a series-best 3.5 average finish at these tracks during this eight-race span.

Joey Logano ($9,600)

Starting Position: 19th

Overall, Logano has been one of the best drivers at Michigan over the past three seasons. In those six races since 2018 Logano has five top 10’s and a victory. I know Logano hasn’t been running well of late, but he is at a track that can help him get right. Logano is a dark horse candidate to win this race on Sunday.

Other Options: William Byron ($10,200 – P18), Denny Hamlin ($10,900 – P9), Chase Elliott ($9,200 – P2) – Elliott is super cheap this week for someone who can win this race while leading a substantial amount of laps.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($8,100)

Starting Position: 28th

Bell is piece number three to the core of our place differential build for Sunday. Before having a poor finish at Indianapolis, Bell had a 4.75 average finish in the previous four races. Last season at Michigan, Bell finished 13th and 17th and I expect he will finish in the low to mid-teens on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick ($7,400)

Starting Position: 14th

Reddick has been having maybe the best stretch of his career over the past two months with top 13 finishes in 6 of his last 7 races. In 2021, Reddick has finished in the top 10 in four of the six races at similar tracks with a high finish of second. This season at the two highly correlated tracks, Reddick has finishes of 7th (Kansas) and 9th (Charlotte).

Austin Dillon ($8,000)

Starting Position: 26th

Dillon is the fourth and final piece of our place differential build core. I know some of you are always leery of playing Dillon, but he has been one of the best and most consistent drivers at similar track types this season. Dillon has an average finish of 9.3 at low tire wear tracks in six races and has finished no worse than 12th in any race. At Kansas, Dillon finished 10th (the most correlated track), and at Charlotte, Dillon came home 6th.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,800 – P10), Daniel Suarez ($7,800 – P30), Ross Chastain ($7,700 – P22), Cole Custer ($7,000 -P27)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Bubba Wallace ($6,400) – P15: Wallace has been much improved as the season has progressed and he has seven top 20 finishes in his last two. At Charlotte, Wallace finished 14th which bodes well for Michigan on Sunday.
2. Anthony Alfredo ($5,800) – P35: I am just as shocked to see Alfredo up this high, but he just pops this week for me. Alfredo starts 35th with a few drivers starting ahead of him in worse equipment so he has some small place differential upside. Alfredo also helps make the dominator build work.
3. Josh Berry ($5,600) – P24: Berry has been a very busy boy this weekend after signing his new FULL TIME deal to drive the #8 for JRM in the Xfinity Series in 2022. Berry finished 4th on Saturday, and will take over for Corey Lajoie in the #7 after he was unable to race due to COVID protocols.
4. Michael McDowell ($6,000) – P25: McDowell has a top 20 at all low tire wear tracks this season and has an average finish of 16.7.
5. Chris Bueshcer ($6,500) – P11: Buescher is another driver, similar to McDowell, that has run better than expected as similar track types this season. In 2021, Buescher has an average finish of 10th in those races with finishes of 8th and Charlotte and Kansas and a 14th at Las Vegas.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!