NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Martinsville 4/10

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

NASCAR is back after a week off for the Easter holiday last weekend. This week we head to Martinsville, Virginia, and the circuit’s oldest track. This is a slow, short track that is pretty much two drag strips attached to two shallow banked turns. This is a 2-3 dominator race on Saturday with there being a 500 lap race.

Last season five drivers swept the top 6 positions and seven drivers swept the top 10 positions. Nobody has been better at Martinsville than the Penske Fords over the past few seasons. I will have plenty to say about the Penske cars in this article, especially Brad Keselowski. There is also the narrative that the drivers who call the Xfinity/Truck race the day before the Cup race win (Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano won the previous two races). So, if you believe in this narrative (Brian Tulloch to name one person), keep an eye on Austin Dillon and Ryan Blaney to win this race.

This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Brad Keselowski ($11,000)

Starting Position: 10th

Keselowski might as well be collecting rent from the other cars in the field because he owns Martinsville. In his last 10 races at Martinsville, Keselowski has TEN top 10’s and NINE top 5 finishes. Keselowski has to be one of the favorites to win this race and should be a lock for a top 5. In the Spring race here in 2019 Keselowski dominated by leading 446 of 500 laps and won this race. Brad knows his way around this track and will be tough to beat on Saturday night.

Chase Elliott ($11,400)

Starting Position: 5th

Elliott was the most dominant car at this race in the fall last season leading 236 laps on the way to the win. Not only did Elliott lead the most laps in the fall, but he also led the field in fastest laps with 110. Elliott has to be another favorite to win this race on Saturday night. We only need to weigh the price tag and dominator point upside to see if he can make value. I believe that Elliott will lead a good amount of the 500 laps in this race and will crush his value.

Martin Truex Jr. ($12,000)

Starting Position: 7th

I will start by saying I do not love the price for Truex, but I think his incredibly high salary could keep his ownership down for this race. Truex does have great track history here at Martinsville, including last fall when he led 129 laps and had 75 fastest laps. Truex has a late-race pit stop that torpedoed his shot at the win, so pay no attention to his finish for this race. If you don’t factor in the race last fall, Truex has an average finish of 3.2 at this track since 2017.

Joey Logano ($10,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Logano is coming of the win at Bristol two weeks ago and has to be considered to compete for the victory on Saturday night. There is this weird stat that shows since 2015 when Logano is on the pole at Martinsville he has an average finished of 22.75, but when he starts elsewhere in the field he has a 5th place average finish. Do with that what you will, but I am not scared off of Logano because of that. In 2020 at Martinsville, Logano had the fastest green flag speed in the Spring race and the 4th best speed in the Fall. If he can hold off Hamlin, I think we could see a lot of the early laps led by Logano on Saturday night.

Kyle Busch ($9,8000)

Starting Position: 12th

Busch is underpriced in my opinion for his upside in this race. I hope people just don’t play him because of this narrative that he can’t hack it anymore. Martinsville is one of Kyle’s favorite and best tracks with nine top 10’s and eight top 5’s in his last 11 races at Martinsville. Busch is also a two-time winner at Martinsville and is my pick to win this race.

Ranking the remaining top tier drivers:

• Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – P2: Hamlin has the best speed ranking on the season and is also a 5 time winner here at Martinsville.
• Ryan Blaney ($10,100) – P4: Blaney finished runner up in both 2020 Martinsville races.
• Kyle Larson ($11,700) – P19: Larson has amazing upside starting P19, but he doesn’t have a great history here. I think Larson is a contender for the top10 this week and offers some PD upside.
• Kevin Harvick ($9,600) – P9: Harvick is not one of the drivers I plan on rostering because I don’t think he finishes much higher than his starting position.
• Alex Bowman ($9,200)) – P20: Bowman has great PD upside and has three finishes of 7th or better in his last 4

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

Byron is one of the teams running the best in 2021 and already has a win. At Martinsville in the fall 2020 race, Byron had a car with top 10 speed, but with about 60 laps remaining he got into the wall when he cut down a tire and finished 35th. Byron had the 11th best total speed ranking and 12th best green flag speed

Kurt Busch ($8,900)

Starting Position: 21st

Kurt Busch is another solid place differential play in the field on Saturday night. Busch is another multi-time winner at Martinsville who has been clicking off some great finishes recently. Since 2018, Kurt has an average finish of 8.2 and an average running position of 9.7 as well as finishing between 5th and 12th in every race.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800)

Starting Position: 22nd

DiBenedetto had some really poor finishes at Martinsville, but last season that changed. DiBenedetto had some of that Penske greatness here rub off on him when he finished with two top 10’s. After a poor start to the 2021 season, DiBenedetto and the 21 team are improving weekly and is one of my top place differential plays on this slate.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Martinsville is one of Wallace’s best tracks, especially over since 2019. In his last four races at “The Paper Clip”, Wallace has an average finishing position of 15.5. These finishes were in the #43, and now that he has JGR equipment which could improve his finish.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,400 – P23), Austin Dillon ($7,100 – P18), Aric Almirola ($8,100 – P31) — Almirola is my favorite PD play in this race., Tyler Reddick ($7,500 – P13)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chris Buescher ($6,400) – P15: Buescher has finished 12th or 13th in 3 of his last 5 Martinsville races. His team has shown some great speed this season and a top 10 isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.
2. Ricky Stenhouse ($5,800) – P6: Do I wish Stenhouse was starting further back? Of course, but that won’t scare me off him. I think he goes practically unowned which makes me like him even more
3. Erik Jones ($6,600) – P16: The 43 team has looked good so far this season and a top 15 is a real possibility this season
4. Michael McDowell ($5,500) – P14: McDowell is cheap enough that he can make value with a top 20 finish on Saturday, especially at his bargain price on FanDuel
5. Corey Lajoie ($5,200) – P34: Lajoie has an avg finish of 20.3 in his last 3 Martinsville starts
6. Ross Chastain ($6,300) – P27: Chastain hasn’t been great a Martinsville, but that was in subpar equipment. His CGR Chevy should easily help him finish with a top 20 this week.
7. Ryan Newman ($6,800) – P8: Newman, like Stenhouse, starts a little high up but he has top 10 upside and should make for a great GPP play.
8. Anthony Alfredo ($5,300) – P35: The combo of starting in the back and his low price makes Alfredo one of the safest plays in this tier. I really like him to help you get 3 dominators in your lineups
9. Ryan Preece ($5,600) – P17: Preece will need some attrition to have a good night but it’s not impossible. Preece is a GPP play only
10. Chase Briscoe ($6,100) – P24: Briscoe ran well here last fall in the Xfinity race, and has finished between 18th and 23rd since the series left Daytona

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