NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Martinsville 10/31

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This is it…until next week

Welcome to Martinsville week where we decide the final four drivers who will compete for the title next week. Just as a personal opinion, Martinsville is not the track that should be deciding who gets to go to the Championship 4, but here we are so let’s get at it. Martinsville is NASCAR’s oldest track and there has been a NASCAR race here every year since 1949. Martinsville is also the shortest and slowest track on the circuit but it does not lack for action or an inordinate amount of cautions. This race will get crazy at the end of the two stages and of course as the checkered flag gets closer to waving. Drivers will be trying to get all the stage points they can and also the there Penske drivers will all be fighting for the win as well.

This is a long, 500 lap race and because of this, we will need to load up on dominators. Since you need to get those laps-led bonus points, we will need to find some value. This is the exact reason why a driver priced at $5,900 or less has been in EVERY optimal lineup for the last three races here. There are not a huge number of drivers in this price range that look good, but there is at least one.

It’s Kyle Larson’s world and we are all just living in it.

Larson is the only driver who has clinched his spot in the finale on the back of three straight wins. Larson is the first driver in over thirty years to win three straight races twice in a year (Dale Earnhardt). Both Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin look to be locks to make the final, barring something catastrophic happening to either of them. So, that leaves the final five drivers competing for one spot. Only Joey Logano is in a must-win situation, but if you are the other four drivers and you see Logano leading late you will have to do everything you can to get past him. All of this is will make for a fun and interesting afternoon on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier

Once again Kyle Larson ($11,800 – P1) projects as the highest-scoring driver, and why not. Larson has dominated at every track type we’ve been to in 2021. At the first Martinsville race this season, Larson did finish 5th but did not lead any laps. I fully expect him to take the early lead from the pole and lead a good amount of laps but he may just drive around, keep his car clean and finish top 10. Larson will be in some of my lineups, but I won’t have 100% exposure like I have the last few weeks.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400)

Starting Position: 4th

Everything points to Truex having an outstanding day on Sunday. First, Truex is running his Auto-Owners Insurance paint scheme which when he runs this scheme he traditionally has some of his best races. Since 2020, MTJ has run this scheme 15 times and has one win, eight top 5’s, ten top 10’s, and has led 776 laps. Needless to say, Truex usually runs great in this paint scheme. At Martinsville, Truex has been dominant with three wins in the last four races. Truex also has six top 5’s and seven top 10’s in his last eight races here. If Larson doesn’t win this race, don’t be surprised to see the #19 Toyota in victory lane on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin ($10,700)

Starting Position: 3rd

Hamlin isn’t as dominant here at Martinsville as Truex is, but this is clearly one of Denny’s best tracks. Hamlin is a five-time winner at Martinsville and has led 490 laps since 2018. Now, Hamlin hasn’t won here since 2015, but since 2018 Hamlin does own four top 5’s and has only finished lower than 12th once in seven races. Hamlin will compete for the win on Sunday, but he should be a lock for another top 5.

Joey Logano ($9,500)

Starting Position: 5th

Logano has to win or go home (not really, he still races next week) and if there is a track he can do it at, it’s Martinsville. Coming into Sunday’s race here, Logano has four straight top 10’s and has six top 10’s and a win in seven races since 2018. Like with Truex and Hamlin before him, Logano has led a large number of laps, 573 to be exact in those seven races. I see Logano as an outside favorite to win, but a lock for a top 10 unless he wrecks himself trying to win this race.

There are two constants in the last three races here, a driver priced at $5.9K on DK will be in the optimal, and so will Ryan Blaney ($9,700 – P8). Since 2020, Blaney has been in all three optimal lineups which just shows how well Blaney runs at Martinsville. Sticking with the theme, since 2018, Blaney has had five top 5’s in seven races and has led 372 laps. This is also a real example of how getting dominator points is key. Blaney started from P4 but finished 11th here earlier this season, but led 157 laps in that race which made up for his negative 7 in place differential.

Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,100 – P2), Brad Keselowski ($9,300 -P6), Kevin Harvick ($9,000 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Christopher Bell ($8,400)

Starting Position: 12th

Christopher Bell has greatly improved his standing at Martinsville in each of his three races. Earlier this season, Bell finished 7th after starting 23rd. In that race, Bell had an average running position of 10.6 and had the 10th best speed ranking. Bell is quietly one of the hottest drivers in the series, over the last four races he has a series-best average finish of 6th. I see Bell as a solid top 10 play with top 5 upside.

Kurt Busch ($7,900)

Starting Position: 10th

At Martinsville, Kurt Busch has been one of the series’s best drivers in recent years. While the focus is on the playoff drivers, Busch will be looking to steal a victory here, a place he’s won at twice already. In his last seven races here, Kurt has an average finish of tenth, but if you remove his race earlier this season he has an average finish of 8.1.

Bubba Wallace ($7,600)

Starting Position: 17th

Wallace has traditionally run well at Martinsville. Earlier this season, Wallace finished 16th, his fourth finish of 17th or better in his last five races. Wallace has been improving throughout the season. Since Bristol (minus Texas where he wrecked), Wallace has an average finish of 12.2. I see Wallace as a top 15 driver on Sunday with top 10 upside.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P13) – Before he had a late-race incident this spring, Bowman had finished 6th in back-to-back races at Martinsville. I think Bowman will be a low-owned play that could finish top 10. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700 – P21) – Matty D comes in with three straight top 12’s and has the 15th best speed ranking at this track type this season.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chris Buescher ($5,900) – P15: Buescher is a good performer at Martinsville and has finished 12th or 13th in three of the last four. I see Buescher as a top 15 car on Sunday and is a great low owned play on Sunday.
2. Anthony Alfredo ($5,400) – P32: Alfredo is not someone who typically ranks this high, but he had a good race here in the spring (26th), is cheap, and starts far enough back that he can’t hurt you. Alfredo will also probably come in arounf sub 10% ownership
3. Ryan Preece ($6,200) – P26: Preece has three finishes of 19th or better in his last five races here. Earlier this season, Preece was running in the teens, but had alternator issues and then wrecked late. I see Preece as a top 20 car this week.
4. Cole Custer ($6,600) – P24: Custer had a poor finish in his first run at Martinsville in 2020, but since then he was back-to-back finishes in the teens. Last season in this race Custer finished 13th, and earlier this season he started 26th and came home 18th. Custer is currently on a run of four straight top 20 finishes and I fully expect that to continue on Sunday with another finish in the mid-teens.
5. Corey Lajoie ($6,000) – P29: Lajoie is typically a low to mid 20’s driver at Martinsville. Earlier this season, Lajoie was running in the low 20’s when he wrecked and finished 37th. Before that race, Lajoie had three straight finishes between 18th and 25th.
6. Erik Jones ($6,900) – P28: If you fade the mid-tier this week, than I really like Jones as an option here. He traditionally runs well and should be a top 20 driver.
7. Garrett Smithley ($5,200) – P37: Smithley is not going to led laps or run in the top 10, but he can get a top 30 and help you cash. Smithley is a good young driver in ok equipment. He is super cheap, starts next to last, and will carry sub 5% ownership as well. Drivers like Houff, McLeod, and Haley are expected to be higher owned, but I don’t see them exceeding the value of Smithley.

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