NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Las Vegas 9/26

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Gambling in Las Vegas with the Cup Series!

This week the Cup Series begins round 2 of the playoffs at the high speed 1.5 -mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Earlier this season, unsurprisingly, Kyle Larson ($11,100) lead 103 laps on his way to victory lane. No other driver led more than 47 laps in that race (Denny Hamlin).

In contrast to what we saw in the Truck and Xfinity Series, Vegas is typically a clean track without much destruction. In March, we only saw two cars wreck out of this race and only two cautions for wrecks. With only 267 laps we don’t need to hunt for dominator points in this race. If you have been with me all weekend I am sure you’re sick of reading about this but it’s true. There aren’t enough laps to focus on finding lap leaders, but instead we want to look for drivers who have place differential potential and who can finish high up in the field.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,100)

Starting Position: 1st

There is an exception to my place differential rule, and that is Kyle Larson. This season Larson has been the most consistent and best driver in the Cup Series. Larson dominated the spring race here in Las Vegas and I believe he will do that again on Sunday night. Since 2017 (7 races), Larson has had four top 5’s and six top 10’s as well as the win earlier this year. Larson should be in your lineup on Sunday night. I won’t say he’s a must-play, but I will probably have 80-90% exposure to him.

Denny Hamlin ($10,500)

Starting Position: 6th

Hamlin is one of the better place differential plays in this tier potentially. I know it seems like he offers very little in that department, but a +5 could be the difference you need. After a stretch of poor finishes here, Hamlin has finished 3rd and 4th in the previous two Vegas races. Over the last five races, Hamlin has been 1st or 2nd in total speed rankings in four of those races (Daytona).

Chase Elliott ($10,200)

Starting Position: 11th

Elliott has had poor finishes here recently, but they are without incident. Earlier this season at Las Vegas, Elliott finished 13th but that does not tell the story. Long story short, Elliott had multiple pit road issues and a spin on lap 169 that should have had him finishing much worse than 13th. Over Elliott’s last four races at similar tracks, he has an average finishing position of 5.5 and the third-best driver rating.

Ryan Blaney ($9,100)

Starting Position: 2nd

Nobody is going to play Blaney on Sunday, well nobody except for us. I believe people will be scared off by the starting position and not look into how good Blaney is at this track type. Blaney has run ten races at Vegas and has four top 5’s and seven top 10’s. Blaney has been consistently good at high-speed 1.5-mile tracks this season and I expect that to continue on Sunday.

Other Option: Kurt Busch ($9,500 – P20): Home track advantage for the older Busch brother? Maybe, but either way there is some great PD upside with Kurt here. Kyle Busch ($10,800 – P9): Busch is at his home track but it’s been since 2009 that he’s won here. I think Busch comes in around 20% ownership and should be a top 5 contender. Joey Logano ($9,900 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Chris Buescher ($7,300)

Starting Position: 25th

Las Vegas is one of Buescher’s better tracks, especially since joining Roush. In three races in the 17, Buescher has finishes of 14th, 9th, and 14th. All three are better than he has ever finished prior to joining Roush. Last season at this race was Buescher’s best finish (9th) and he has two 8th place finishes at similar track type this season. Buescher is a potential top ten candidate on Sunday night.

Richard Childress Racing

Tyler Reddick ($7,800 – P13)

Austin Dillon ($8,100 – P15)

Both of the RCR cars have been good at this track type all season. Tyler Reddick has not been good at Vegas at all but this season he has performed well at tracks that he never has all year. At the last three 1.5-mile tracks Reddick has finishes of 6th, 7th, and 9th. I look for Reddick to be a low owned top 10 car on Sunday night

As for Reddick’s teammate, Austin Dillon has had more success at Vegas and also has success at 1.5-mile tracks this season. At this track type, Dillon has finished 12th or better at EVERY race, has an average finish of 9.7, and has the 10th best total speed ranking. Dillon has also finished 13th or better in five of his last seven races here dating back to 2018.

Alex Bowman ($8,300)

Starting Position: 7th

Both Las Vegas and high-speed intermediate tracks have been Bowman’s bread and butter lately. This year’s poor finish (28th) was deceiving. Bowman was running 9th with 16 laps to go when he had a tire go down on him and couple that with a commitment cone violation and you get a 28th place finish. Bowman has the 5th best speed ranking at this track type in 2021 and has been between 3rd and 7th five times in those seven races. Last year at this race Bowman came home 5th and on Sunday I will expect Bowman to replicate that finish.

Other Options: Brad Keselowski ($8,700 – P8): Eight top 5’s in his last 12 races here including 3 wins and a 2nd place finish this season, Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200 – P14), Ross Chastain ($7,900 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chase Briscoe ($6,000) – P19: Briscoe has been clicking off good finishes since July. During this span of races the Cup Series visited two similar tracks and Briscoe finished 11th (Michigan) and 15th (Atlanta).
2. Ryan Preece ($6,300) – P24: Preece has back to back top 20 finishes here at Vegas and I expect that trend to contiue. Over his last five races Preece’s avg finishing position is 16th. I look for Preece to be a high teens driver on Sunday night
3. Ricky Stenhouse ($6,800) – P22: Stenhouse has performed well at this track type in 2021. If you take out the races where he wrecked, Stenhouse has an avg finish of 12th and has finished between 11th and 13th in each of those races.
4. Bubba Wallace ($6,700) – P21: Wallace has not had much luck in Vegas, at least on the track not sure how he does in the casinos. All those bad finishes came in lower tier equipment though. In three of the last five races at this track type Wallace has finished between 14th and 16th.
5. Michael McDowell ($5,900) – P23: In the first Vegas race this season, McDowell had his best ever race here. McDowell finished 17th and had an avg running position of 17.9. I don’t expect much from the 34 car on Sunday, but a top 20 would suffice to make value.
6. Corey Lajoie ($6,200) – P27: It was Lajoie’s birthday on Saturday, so maybe his birthday luck rolls over to Sunday? We don’t need huge salary savings this week, so I am not concerend with Lajoie’s salary but he is the second best sub $6.5K driver this week for me.
7. Anthony Alfredo ($5,700) – P32: Alfredo has actually performed really well at 1.5-mile tracks this season. In six races at similar tracks, Alfredo has finished between 23rd and 27th in all six. In the first Vegas race he finished 24th and had a 22.5 avg running position.
8. Justin Haley ($5,600) – P33: Haley ran well in the Xfinity Series on Friday night, not that his Cup Series car is anywhere as good as his Xfinity car. Haley has an avg finish of 28.1 at this track type this season.
9. BJ McLeod ($5,300) – P34: McLeod is a safe driver and is great at avoiding wrecks. If we have a similar race to the two lower series than McLeod could pull out a top 25. My best guess for him is a low 30’s finish though.

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