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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
We are back for one last time this weekend from Las Vegas with the Cup Series Pennzoil 400! Last week we saw Byron dominate the second half of the race and get the win. We also saw Kyle Busch as the top-priced driver and for intents and purposes, bust. This week, Kyle is the highest-priced driver again and I just don’t think he can meet the value he needs to for that huge price tag. Joey Logano is the two-time defending champion of this race and there is a really good chance he 3 peats.
Unlike last week, tire wear here is minimal so you won’t see as much strategy involving tires, and also tires won’t make too much of a difference later in runs. When building lineups I will try to follow similar builds to the previous races this weekend. I want to find one driver who will lead a good portion of laps, and then pair them with drivers who have place differential upside in the top tier. We have some good plays in the mid-tier so we don’t need to take more than 2 low-tier drivers which is definitely what we want.
Kurt Busch ($8,100) won the fall race here last season but he wasn’t a dominant driver and benefited from a timely caution. This was Busch’s first win at his home track. I wouldn’t say I want to fade Kurt on Sunday but even though he’s shown good speed this season and won here in 2020 he is not one of the top options in the mid-tier this week.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order.
Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)
Starting Position: 4th
Truex has been immensely successful at Vegas over his career, especially recently. In five of the last six races here Truex has had a top five ranked car based on all the speed metrics. Since 2017 Truex has a 3.5 average finish, a 6th place average running position, and has led 47.3 laps per race. Truex looked really good last week at Homestead and will be a threat to win on Sunday.
Kevin Harvick ($9,700)
Starting Position: 1st
Harvick dominated this race last season, but ended up second to Logano. In the first Las Vegas race in 2020, Harvick had 61 fastest laps and 85 laps led, both of which were tops in the entire race field. Normally we don’t want polesitters, but when you have someone like Harvick who could take over a race and lead 75-100 laps you need to roster those types of drivers.
Chase Elliott ($10,600)
Starting Position: 8th
In my mind, Elliott rounds out the trio of drivers I think have the potential to dominate this race. Last season in the fall Las Vegas race Elliott had one of the best cars in the entire field but you wouldn’t know it by his 22nd place finish. Elliott led 73 laps, finished 4th in stage one, and won stage two, and lastly, Elliott had an average running position of 4.4. If it wasn’t for an untimely caution late in the race Elliott probably would have come home with an easy top 5.
Joey Logano ($10,000)
Starting Position: 15th
Logano is one of the best fantasy drivers when it comes to Las Vegas. Like I said in the open, Logano is the back-to-back winner of this race and will be one of the favorites to win again on Sunday. In the last 5 spring Las Vegas races, Logano has finished in the top seven in every race and has an average finish of 3rd. Since the current rules package was introduced (last 4 Vegas races), Logano has led the most laps per race (56.8), has the second-best average finish (6.3), and the 3rd best averaging running position (8.3).
5 – Kyle Larson ($9,400) – P3
6 – Brad Keselowski ($10,300) – P10
7 – Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – P6
Top Tier Place Differential Play: Ryan Blaney ($10,800) – P26
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
William Byron ($8,300)
Starting Position: 2nd
Byron is once again in a position to be overlooked and come in with minimal ownership and I want to take advantage of that. Last week Byron surprised me and dominated at Homestead and I won’t make the same mistake this week. In the fall race here last season, Byron had a very unfair finish of 25th place. Byron led 12 laps and had 10 fastest laps as well as spending the majority of the race inside the top 15 and being the 13th ranked car in NASCAR speed rankings. In this race, last season Byron was tied with Logano for the fastest car on track in all segments, but again was unlucky because of cautions and finished 22nd.
Alex Bowman ($8,800)
Starting Position: 9th
Bowman was in contention in both Vegas races last season and ranked 4th (Spring) and 3rd (Fall) in the speed rankings but finished 13th and 5th respectively. Bowman has the 5th best average finish ranking over the last four Las Vegas races with an 8.8 average finish.
Austin Dillon ($7,600)
Starting Position: 12th
Last season in the 2nd Las Vegas race Dillon was a contender for the win and was running inside the top 10 most of the night. Dillon finished 6th in both stages and was set u for a great finish until it all unraveled for him. With about 75 laps to go Dillon received a pit road penalty for too many men over the wall on his stop when a crew member fell over trying to catch a tire. After being sent to the back for that violation, Dillon had a power steering leak 20 laps later which ended his day and had him finish 32nd. Austin has looked good this season and was a top car here last season and should be one of the top mid-tier drivers when it’s all said and done on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick ($7,900)
Starting Position: 11th
Reddick was a chalk play last week, but this week he could be on the complete opposite end of ownership. On Saturday Reddick ran the Xfinity Series race here and came home in 12th place so he has a feel for the track which is an advantage no one else in the top tiers of the field has. Last Fall Reddick a disastrous race here finishing 38th, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. On lap 37 Reddick had to make a pit stop for a loose wheel which put him a lap down. Then on the final lap of the second stage, Reddick went hard into the wall which put an end to his day early.
Mid Tier Place Differential Play: Aric Almirola ($8,600) – P28
Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,700), Bubba Wallace ($7,000), Chase Briscoe ($7,400)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Cole Custer ($6,500) – P20: Custer was 16th here last fall and a top 15 is definitely in the cards on Sunday
- Chris Buescher ($6,400) P18: Buescher was a surprise last week when he led a good portion of the early race, but his car got away from him late
- Daniel Suarez ($6,100) P22: Suarez has two straight top 20’s and he is a very confident driver right now.
- Anthony Alfredo ($5,700) P27: Alfredo is a mid-20’s driver at best, but maybe some luck comes his way, and does better on Sunday
- Ryan Preece ($5,800) P19: I don’t expect much more than a mid-20’s finish from Preece but he has been better than expected this season, so a high teens finish is possible
- Ryan Newman ($6,700) P13: I don’t love Newman, but he is a veteran that will have little to no ownership
- Michael McDowell ($6,000) P5: McDowell has not done well at Vegas in the past, but he has outdone all expectations this season so far, so why not again on Sunday.
- Corey Lajoie ($6,300) P32: Lajoie had some decent success in recent Las Vegas races finishing in the low 20’s. That type of finish would be great value for his price on Sunday.
- BJ McLeod ($5,100) P34: McLeod is at best a low-30’s to high-20’s driver. I don’t expect much but in large field GPP’s he could be a decent low owned play.
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