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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
Yes, that is the real name of this race
One of the first things you will notice this week is the obscure and comical name this race has, so welcome to my breakdown for the Buschy McBusch Race 400! Yes, that is the real name of this race thanks to a fan vote by sponsor Busch Beer. Can you really expect anything less from the internet in 2021 though?
Kansas Speedway Breakdown
Kansas is a progressive banking 1.5-mile track that has very little to minimal tire wear. I will be focusing on those types of tracks when doing my breakdown, so just be prepared to read the words “low tire wear” numerous times throughout this article. Like I mentioned in discord last week after Talladega, we will WANT drivers starting towards the front this week.
There are plenty of place differential plays, but we will want drivers starting up front as well. In the last three Kansas races, eight different drivers have average finishes between 5th and 8.3. Last fall eight of the top ten finishers at Kansas started inside the top 10.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Brad Keselowski ($9,700)
Starting Position: 1st
Like I mentioned in the open, we want drivers starting towards the front and you don’t get much closer to the front than the polesitter. Keselowski is coming off a win at Talladega last week and is at another track he has a great history with. Over the last four races, Keselowski has three top 5’s, meanwhile, no other driver in the field has more than 2. Earlier this season at Las Vegas (a very similar type of track with low tire wear), Keselowski has the fastest total speed ranking and finished second. Keselowski should be fast on Sunday and will compete for the win again.
Denny Hamlin ($10,8000)
Starting Position: 20th
Denny is one of the best drivers at Kansas, and just in general as well. Hamlin has won two of the last three races at Kansas and has four top 5’s in his last 7. Dating back to 2020 at 1.5-mile tracks where tire wear is low, Hamlin has an average finish of 7.75 and has the 7th fastest total speed ranking. I don’t see Hamlin as a threat for the win this week, but he doesn’t need to starting from P20. If he can manage a top 5 and pick up some dominator points he will make value.
Kyle Larson ($11,300)
Starting Position: 32nd
Larson has been the best driver at mile and a half tracks this season, and even though he starts towards the rear of the field I think he can still manage to win this race and lead a ton of laps. In 2021 at 1.5-mile tracks, Larson has an average finish of 2.3, an average running position of 3.2, and has averaged leading 125.7 laps. Larson might be chalky because of his PD upside, but at his price, there are some good plays that are much cheaper.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000)
Starting Position: 15th
Truex is another driver who has a great track history at Kansas and should be someone competing for the win on Sunday. In his last eight races at Kansas, Truex has two wins, five top 5’s and has only finished lower than 9th once. Earlier this season at Las Vegas, another low tire wear track Truex finished 6th.
Ryan Blaney ($9,500)
Starting Position: 7th
Blaney earned his first win at a 1.5-mile track with low tire wear this season when he won at Atlanta. Last fall at Kansas, Blaney was one of the most dominant cars but had a misleading 7th place finish. In that race, Blaney finished 4th in stage 1, 3rd in the second stage, and had a 4.5 average running position. Blaney also had the third-best total speed ranking and the second-fastest green flag average speed.
Remaining top tier driver rankings:
- Alex Bowman ($10,200) – P25
- Chase Elliott ($10,400) – P17
- Joey Logan ($11,100) – P29
- Kevin Harvick ($9,100) – P4
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
William Byron ($8,800)
Starting Position: 2nd
Byron might be my favorite play in the field this weekend. This team has been great in practically every race this season. Since leaving Daytona the 24 team has not finished lower than 8th in any race and has earned dominator points in every one of those races as well. At 1.5-mile tracks this season, Byron has an average finish of 5.7 which is the second-best in the field. Byron is my pick to win this race and has a Hendrick Motorsports top 2 with Larson finishing 2nd behind him.
Ricky Stenhouse ($8,200)
Starting Position: 23rd
I promise I am not drunk (especially since I don’t drink), but Ricky Stenhouse is a viable cash/SE option this week. No, really, he is, I swear. Stenhouse and the 47 team have been a bright spot in NASCAR this season and he has done very well at these types of tracks this season. In his last 4 spring races at Kansas, he has three 11th place finishes and a 13th place. At 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, Stenhouse has finishes of 11th,12th, and 13th, needless to say, Stenhouse is a model of consistency at these types of tracks.
Christopher Bell ($8,000)
Starting Position: 8th
Bell is a good driver at these types of tracks and is a candidate for a top 10, and if things fall his way, a top 5. Over his last three races at 1.5-mile tracks, Bell has an average finish of 6.6, including his 7th place finish at Las Vegas earlier this season. Bell is averaging a top 10 finish since March (minus Bristol).
Austin Dillon ($7,500)
Starting Position: 6th
Dillon is one of the top GPP plays in the field, but is not a great option for SE or cash. While he has run well at 1.5-mile tracks with low tire wear he doesn’t have finishes that inspire a better than average outcome. In his last 13 races at similar tracks, Dillon has finished between 6th and 14th ten times. Dillon has an average finish of 16.6 in his last 8 Kansas races, which is worrisome but he has top 5 upside with how well he has driven this season. In a nutshell, play Austin at your own risk.
Other Options: Kyle Busch ($8,600 – P9), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700 – P5), Ryan Newman ($7,400 – P14), Aric Almirola ($8,400 – P18)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Chris Buescher ($6,100) P16: It was a toss-up for me between Buescher and Reddick for the top spot in this tier, but I am leaning Buescher because of the salary savings. Buescher has also been really solid at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021 and a top 15 is definitely likely on Sunday
- Tyler Reddick ($6,900) P11: Reddick will be running up against the wall all day on Sunday which could lead to disaster. In three Kansas races, Reddick has finished 13th and 9th, but did wreck last fall and come home 25th.
- Austin Cindric ($6,700) P38: Finally, DK has priced Cindric at a price that he is actually a viable option. He is a mid-20’s at best option, but at this price, I can finally justify rostering him.
- Ross Chastain ($6,500) P24: Chastain has been driving much better of late and has finished between 14th and 19th in his last in 6 of his last 8 races. At 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, Chastain has an 18th place average finish.
- Ryan Preece ($5,600) P12: This tier is not great this week, but we will need some salary relief to get the tippy top-tier guys, and Preece is one guy I like for that. Preece manages to stay clean in most races and has run in the mid-teens all season at 1.5-mile tracks. We can expect a top 20 from Preece on Sunday
- Anthony Alfred ($4,500) P22: I do NOT love this play, but once again, salary relief is the role for Alfredo on Sunday. If he can manage to finish around where he starts, he will be the top value play…but that’s a big if.
- Daniel Suarez ($6,300) P21: Suarez has top 20 upside and will need to if we want him to make value.
- Chase Briscoe ($6,000) P19: Upside is very limited with Briscoe, but he did race the truck race Saturday night so he has a feel for the track. I don’t love the play and I will probably have zero exposure, but he could surprise and get a top 20.
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