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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
” ‘Cause I’m about to solve it. Put my engine back into overdrive”
This weekend the Cup Series playoffs head to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400! On Saturday in the Xfinity race, we saw that the high line was practically the only place to pass on the track. Because of this, I am looking at for this race is drivers who tend to run well in the high groove. Aside from drivers who run well up top, I want to see who performed well earlier this season here, as well as at other 1.5-mile tracks with low tire wear. Kansas is an old surface but it does not eat up tires which makes them less important.
Rain on my parade?
There is a high chance of rain on Sunday afternoon in Kansas around the track, luckily Kansas DOES have lights which means you don’t need to tweet at Bob Pockrass to ask. These cars are set up for daytime racing, not night racing so it will be interesting to see who can make the proper adjustments to get their cars changed from day to night. I would assume that it would be the top teams in the series, but unfortunately, that’s just another thing we cannot predict.
NASCAR DFS: Top Tier
Kyle Larson ($11,700)
Starting Position: 1st
Welcome to the weekly breakdown of how good Kyle Larson is at driving anything with an engine in it. There doesn’t seem to be any type of vehicle or track that Larson can’t dominate at, and Kansas is no different. Even though he didn’t have the finish to show for it, he dominated earlier this season at Kansas leading 132 or 267 laps. In 2021 at low tire wear mile and a half tracks, Larson has been the class of the field each week. In five races at this track type, Larson has three wins, the best overall speed, and driver rating, and has led an average of 182.6 laps per race. I am seriously running out of things to say about Larson each week, luckily I only have to write him up two more times after Sunday.
William Byron ($9,500)
Starting Position: 9th
No, you are not reading the article for Texas from last week, I promise this is a different article. Byron historically runs well at Kansas. After a few poor races to start his career where he couldn’t finish higher than 20th here everything has seemingly flipped and now Byron is a top 10 machine at Kansas. Since this race in the fall of 2019, Byron has finished 5th, 10th, 8th, and 9th and has led laps in three of the four races. Earlier this season Byron finished 9th with an average running position of 10.1 and the 8th best speed ranking. At this track type in 2021, Byron is also part of the top tier with the 2nd best speed ranking and 2nd best driver rating. At Las Vegas last month Byron ranked 1st in total speed ranking, he finished 2nd and had the second-best speed ranking last week in Texas as well. Lastly, at Michigan (which is considered to be a bigger version of Kansas) Byron also finished 2nd and had the 2nd best speed ranking
Ryan Blaney ($9,300)
Starting Position: 2nd
Blaney is another driver who excels at this track type. Since the midpoint of the season, Blaney has been the best at high-speed ovals like Kansas with a series-best 4.3 average finish in four races. Blaney also has finished in the top 6 at all four races. In the playoffs, the series has raced at two low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks and Blaney has finished fifth at Las Vegas and sixth at Texas. Blaney also won at Michigan back in August this year. I expect Blaney to compete for the win but if he doesn’t win, he should at least come home in the top 5.
Denny Hamlin ($11,000)
Starting Position: 6th
Hamlin should be ranked higher, but because of his salary I do not love the builds that have both him and Larson and for me, Larson is the priority on Sunday. With that being said, I will most likely have at least one lineup with them both. Hamlin has won two of the last four races at Kansas, but over the last two races luck wasn’t on his side. At Las Vegas last month, Hamlin led a race-high 137 laps, had the 2nd best speed ranking, and won the race. On Sunday I expect Hamlin to push Larson for the win and should be part of the top 5 at the end of the day.
Other Options: Alex Bowman ($9,800 – P25) – I expect Bowman to carry a lot of ownership on Sunday so that’s why he isn’t higher on the list. Bowman has not finished lower than 18th in any race since 2018 here (7 races) and has two top 5’s and four top 10’s. Kyle Busch ($10,700 – P4), Chase Elliott ($10,000 – P5)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Tyler Reddick ($8,400)
Starting Position: 12th
Well, you can’t have an article about a track where the high line is the best and not include Tyler Reddick. This man loves to run up top and right up against the wall but while it may seem risky it does tend to work for him. Over the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has finished no worse than 9th in any race and has the fourth-best average finish of 7.4 during this span. It seems every week I watch these races and Tyler Reddick and the #8 car is running towards the front and I expect to see much of the same this Sunday.
Austin Dillon ($7,800)
Starting Position: 14th
Let’s keep this RCR tier going! Reddick’s teammate, Austin Dillon, is another solid play in my eyes on Sunday. Dillon has run well at Kansas in the past and he’s also done well at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. Dillon finished 11th in this race last season and earlier this year he came home tenth. As far as how he’s fared at similar tracks this year, Dillon has an average finish of 10.6 and an average running position of 12.5 at 1.5-mile tracks this season. At Michigan, Dillon was having his best race of the year until he got into that wreck with Keselowski at the end of the stage. I expect Dillon to be a top 15 lock, but to push for a top 10.
Bubba Wallace ($7,400)
Starting Position: 27th
Wallace is not someone who typically runs well at Kansas, but he is also in the best car he’s ever been in the Cup Series. Wallace has shown some great improvements at this track type late in the season. Prior to Texas where he wrecked, Wallace had finished 14th, 14th, and 16th at the 1.5-mile tracks. I expect Wallace to be a low owned car that finishes in the mid to high teens.
Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,500 – P13): I really like Kurt Busch on Sunday, but because of his salary he doesn’t work in my three top tier driver builds and that’s why he’s in the “other” section. Over the last 4 at this track type, Busch has an avg finish of 7.3 and finished 4th and 8th at Michigan and Vegas respectively. Kevin Harvick ($8,900 – P11): When he’s not fighting with Chase Elliott, Harvick is having great races lately. In 6 of the last 7 he has finished in the top 10 and has an avg finish of 7.4 (4th best) since at the last 5 1.5-mile tracks. Ricky Stenhouse ($7,000 – P28): When he isn’t getting wrecked out of races, Stenhouse is finishing in the mid teens. If he can keep his car away from the carnage, I fully expect Stenhouse to be a huge PD play and finish in the mid to high teens.
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Matt DiBenedetto ($6,800) – P15: DiBenedetto is never priced this low, but it’s not for any reason other than DK’s algorithm is messed up (as usual). I don’t love this play on FD, but on DK he is a great option. Matty D has an avg finish of 11.9 and an avg running position of 12.8. I see DiBenedetto as a low teens driver on Sunday.
- Chris Buescher ($6,300) – P21: Buescher, like DiBenedeto, is underpriced for his upside in this race. In his last six races here, Buescher has finished 16th or better four times and finished 8th here in the spring. I view Buescher as a high teens driver on Sunday.
- Erik Jones ($6,100) – P17: Jones start’s high, but his price reflects it on both sites. I see Jones as a mid to low teens driver on Sunday based of recent performances. Last week at Texas (a similar track), Jones ran great and finished 12th. At 3 of the 5 low tire wear tracks in 2021 he’s finished between 10th and 16th.
- Daniel Suarez ($6,400) – P16: Suarez finished top 10 last week at Texas and has been running really well in the playoffs. In 5 of the 7 playoff races so far, Suarez has finished 17th or better and I expect him to be a mid teens driver with top 10 upside again.
- Ryan Preece ($5,700) – P32: I don’t love this pick, but the upside is here Preece has not been running well of late, but he is in a good car that could easily pull a top 20 on Sunday. I expect Preece to be popular, so fading him and going with the next driver on the list may be a good idea.
- Anthony Alfredo ($5,600) – P29: Alfredo ran well here in the spring finishing 23rd. At the 8 1.5-mile tracks this season, Alfredo has finished 27th or better in seven of those races. I see Alfredo as mid 20’s car again on Sunday and with some attrition on our favor maybe even a low 20’s finish is in the cards.
- Cole Custer ($6,000 – P22: Custer is a mid teens to low twenties driver at this track type typically and I expect that to continue. There really isn’t much to say about Custer, but he is cheap industry wide and will be a pivot off the other $6K drivers in this race. Custer is a GPP play only and you will need some luck to get a huge number out of him, but it can happen. In a wrecked filled race in the first Kansas race of 2020 he came home 7th, so the potential is there.
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