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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
This week the NASCAR Cup Series makes its first run at the Indianapolis Road Course. I know a lot of people are disappointed we don’t have the traditional Brickyard 400 sponsored by some type of Big Machine alcohol, but this race should be different and also fun.
On Saturday we saw a lot of cars wreck out, so place differential was key. We can expect some similar wrecks today, especially late in the race, so once again taking some drivers from the rear will be key again.
We know the trio of Chase Elliot ($11,000), Kyle Larson ($10,800), and Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400) will be popular today, but they are expensive and the value tier does not offer a lot to like. I think there is plenty of upside in the lower top tier and mid-tier on Sunday that makes for a better single entry style build. All three of these drivers are in play of course and I will have exposure to all three in my lineups, but they are not vital in my opinion. I still rank them as the top three drivers in the race but I won’t spend time breaking them down in this article as we all know how good they are at road courses.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Kyle Busch ($10,200)
Starting Position: 21st
Busch comes in right behind Elliott in projected points today and that seems to be purely on place differential. Traditionally Busch has not done well at “rival” style course, but the Indy road course drives more like a traditional road course at which Busch has a series-best 5.1 average finish over the previous 14 races. I expect Kyle to be popular on Sunday but he is the one driver from the tippy top tier that can’t hurt you too bad making him that safe play with huge upside.
Christopher Bell ($9,200)
Starting Position: 17th
Bell has been excellent at road courses this season, including his first career win at the Daytona Road Course earlier this season. Last week Bell was up towards the front all day and came home with a 7th place finish. Bell was fast in practice Saturday having the 4th fastest lap but somehow that didn’t translate over to qualifying. Maybe Bell was still a little tired and didn’t get all the sleep out of his eyes, but I am not concerned and will have plenty of Christopher Bell on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin ($10,000)
Starting Position: 14th
I think Hamlin will push hard for the win on Sunday which could also leave him vulnerable to wrecking. Hamlin is the better driver and better play over Bell, but for that $800 savings, I prefer the 20 car. Hamlin has finished in the top 5 in ten of the previous 14 road course races though and will most likely be up there again today. In practice Saturday, Hamlin had both the 3rd best single lap and 10 lap average.
Other Options: Kurt Busch ($9,000 – P20), Austin Cindric ($9,400 – P13)
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Brad Keselowski ($8,200)
Starting Position: 31st
Keselowski will not be in the top 5 on Sunday and may not even get to the top 10, but at this price and starting from P31 he is a must play in single entry and cash. Will he be popular? Of course (34% projected ownership) but you just have to eat this chalk again and play Keselowski. Before last weekend Keselowski hasn’t finished lower than 19th at a road course, I expect another top 20 or top 15 on Sunday
Alex Bowman ($8,400)
Starting Position: 24th
Bowman is actually a really solid road course racer. In seven races at this track type since last year, Bowman has five finishes of 12th or better. Bowman wasn’t great in single-lap speed on Saturday, but he did have the 10th best ten-lap average. I figure Bowman to be a mid-teens driver on Sunday and a pivot off the chalkier Keselowski.
Kevin Harvick ($8,000)
Starting Position: 25th
Harvick has said he was not comfortable on this track this weekend and he did not even make it out of turn one on Saturday. He NEEDs points and needs a win so he may have no choice but to get comfortable with this track and fast. This season at road courses, Harvick does have two top 10’s and an average finish of 20th, but he is coming off an 8th place finish last week at The Glen. Over his last seven races, Harvick only has one finish lower than 11th as well.
AJ Allmendinger ($8,800)
Starting Position: 8th
If you are playing straight GPP’s then Dinger is your man. There is obvious upside from a driver who has had success twice on the track in the Xfinity Series and who will be sub 15% owned. I do not plan on having much ownership in Allmendinger, but I play single-entry lineups so he doesn’t fit my style. Allmendinger does have two finishes in the top 10, including a 5th at the Daytona Road Course so there is upside here for his price.
Other Options: Matt DiBenedetto ($7,400 – P15), Ross Chastain ($7,700 – P9) – Hopefully he doesn’t run out of gas on Sunday.
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Austin Dillon ($6,300) – P23: Dillon was up and down all day but made it into the optimal lineup on Saturay and theres a good chance he gets there again on Sunday. Dillon needs points to keep his playoff hopes alive and this team will push for a top 10.
- Erik Jones ($6,700) – P28: I know he hurt us last week, but I am willing to forgive and forget and go back to the well today. I don’t have much hope for Jones, but he is cheap and starts far enough back to not hurt you too bad.
- Ryan Preece ($5,700) – P30: If you take out Road America where Cody Ware took him out (I know, shocker), Preece has fared well at road courses this season. Preece has an 18.2 average finish if you remove RA from the list at road courses, I will certainly take that today.
- Ryan Nemwan ($6,100) – P32: Newman wasn’t great in practice, but he is cheap and starts far enough back that he can’t really hurt you. As a bonus he isn’t projected to be that highly owned. (17%).
- Corey Lajoie ($5,600) – P26: I wish he was starting a little further back, but Lajoie is still a really solid play today. Lajoie did have the 14th best single lap in practice on Saturday so we know his car has some speed. As for ownership he projects around the same as Newman and Preece so it really comes down to salary.
- Justin Haley ($5,500) – P29: I don’t plan on having too much Haley, but at sub 10% he is a great GPP play. Haley has run more laps (outside of Cindric and AJ) at this track then anyone in this race and that will help him I believe.
- Anthony Alfredo ($5,300) – P33: If you really need salary relief than Alfredo is in play. If you build the more balanced lineup I laid out above you don’t need to go this low, but for GPP’s or you want two of the top priced guys then you could do worse than Alfredo.
- James Davison ($5,200) – P34: See Above. Davison is pretty much the same as Alferdo. Cheap, super low owned salary relife that can’t hurt too bad. There is a difference, Davison ran in yesterdays race, and ran well so he does have experience on the this track that others don’t.
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