rmferenc@gmail.com 
Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
After a couple of crazy weeks at Daytona, we are on the 1.5-mile oval at Homestead! This is basic 1.5 oval racing, but this is a high tire wear track. If you didn’t play the Xfinity contests yesterday or are a FanDuel only player this is what I wrote yesterday about high tire wear: What that means is drivers who charge out fast out of the gate will fall off at the end of a run and drivers who sit back and take care of their tires will have speed at the end of the run. Basically, it boils down to a lot of passing and pit strategy and makes for an interesting race.
NASCAR has thankfully gotten rid of the competition caution this week which means our polesitter (Denny Hamlin) has a chance to lead most of, if not the entire, first stage. Teams pretty much always came down pit road at the competition caution, especially on tracks like this where tires matter, last season and it messed with the momentum of the leaders. Usually, we don’t want to roster pole sitters but like with Cindric on Saturday, Hamlin could easily dominate the majority of this race. There are a few drivers who are expected to be chalky based on price and starting position. I will signify them in the article for you.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Chase Elliott ($11,000)
Starting Position: 11th
Nobody in the Cup Series was better on high tire wear track in 2020 than the defending series champion. Elliott is the only driver who ranked in the top ten in total speed at all four of these tracks last season. Not only was Elliott fastest at high tire wear tracks, but he was also second fastest behind only his good friend, Ryan Blaney ($10,400 – P14) in total speed rankings at 1.5-mile tracks. This #9 team was fast last season and will be fast this season and week again. Elliott will definitely be challenging Hamlin early on for the dominator points in this race.
Kyle Larson ($10,700)
Starting Position: 17th
Larson is a driver I want in the bulk of my lineups on Sunday and I think he may go overlooked and come in at low ownership in favor of drivers like Elliott, Harvick, Hamlin, and Kyle Busch. Over his career, Larson has been a threat to win at Homestead and he is now in the best equipment he has ever driven. Between 2015-2019 Larson had a top 5 car in each of those races according to the speed matrixes.
Kevin Harvick ($10,100)
Starting Position: 4th
Kevin Harvick has been one of the best drivers at Homestead over his career despite last season’s terrible performance here. Harvick’s race was marred by incidents between taking damage on pit road and a tire going down, putting him in the wall leading to a 26th place finish. In his six previous Homestead races at Homestead, Harvick finished top 5 in all six. Last season Harvick ranked in the top 5 in total speed at 1.5-mile tracks and high tire wear tracks. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the #4 Ford in victory lane on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin ($9,600)
Starting Position: 1st
Speaking of Hamlin, he is the defending winner of this race and will most definitely be in contention for the win again on Sunday. Hamlin had the best car in this race in 2020 and was led all the speed matrix for this race. I know Hamlin is on the pole so there is some danger in playing him but since 2013 Hamlin has only finished outside the top 10 once.
Other Options (In order of preference): Joey Logano ($9,300 – P2), Martin Truex Jr. ($11,400 – P9), Ryan Blaney ($10,400 – P14), Kyle Busch ($11,800 -P24): I expect Kyle to be semi-chalky, but unless he picks up some dominator points he probably won’t make value.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Tyler Reddick ($8,500)
Starting Position: 35th
Will Tyler Reddick be extreme chalk? Yes! Will Tyler Reddick be good chalk? Also, Yes! I will have a hard time fading Reddick on Sunday after how well he has performed here over his NASCAR career. I usually like to keep my exposure low when it comes to drivers that could push 60% ownership in GPP’s, but Reddick could be the top point driver on Sunday and not having him will make it difficult to get a takedown. Last season Reddick dominated the speed numbers in this race. Reddick was never lowered than 3rd on the speed chart, he ran the most fastest laps with 48, had an average run position of 3.9, and was fourth best in late run speed. Reddick is my underdog pick to win this race and make it 3 for 3 for first time winners in 2021.
Alex Bowman ($8,300)
Starting Position: 13th
Bowman is another driver who I think will be overlooked but could turn in a great DFS day. In his career Bowman has not been great at Homestead but last season he was one of the top 10 fastest cars until he had to make an unexpected pit stop late in the race that left him running too many laps late on worn tires. On 1.5-mile tracks last season, Bowman earned a victory at Auto Club Speedway, as well as averaging a 4.3 finish in the playoff races on similar tracks.
Austin Dillon ($7,700)
Starting Position: 22nd
Nobody was better in the mid-tier was better from a fantasy perspective at 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 than Austin Dillon. In 2020 Dillon ranked 13.1 at 1.5-mile tracks in speed rating, and was 9th fastest here last season. Dillon has been fast this season as well ranking 10th in both Daytona races in 2021. For his price on Sunday I really love the upside Dillon presents for a top 10 finish.
Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,600 – P3) – NOBODY will play him from P3, good low owned GPP play, Kurt Busch ($8,100 – P5), Aric Almirola ($7,900 – P16), Bubba Wallace ($7,000 – P19), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,800 – P37) – I plan on fading uber chalk Matty D on Sunday, but I can definitely see why you’d want to roster him on Sunday.
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Cole Custer ($6,600) – P10: Custer has been off to a great start and last season Custer finished 12th at Darlington (most similar tire wear track)
- Ryan Newman ($6,400) – P23: Newman is the picture of consistency at these tracks, he will finish mid-teens, guarantee it.
- Erik Jones ($6,900) – P18th: Jones is probably not going to finish much higher than he starts, but Wallace did come 13th at Homestead last season in this car.
- Chris Buescher ($6,300) – P12th: Buescher was a low 20’s-high teens driver at high tire wear tracks, he will probably finish in the same range on Sunday
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,700) – P15: Stenhouse is a mid-teens-low 20’s driver at 1.5-mile tracks but does have top 10 upside.
- Daniel Suarez ($5,700) – P21: Suarez and the 99 team have an RCR partnership so there is some upside there
- Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P25: Lajoie has Steve Letarte as crew chief this week which could be a step up and a possible top 20 finish
- Anthony Alfred ($5,500) – P27: Alfredo’s Cup Series career hasn’t started off great, but I think things get a little better and he could pick up a top 20
- James Davison ($4,900) – P29: Salary relief is the main reason to roster Davison, but a mid 20’s finish isn’t out of the question
- Quin Houff ($5,100) – P38: Houff had an average finish of 32.2 at high tire wear tracks in 2020
Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up to date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!
