NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Dover 5/16/21

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

This weekend NASCAR’s premier circuit heads to “The Monster Mile”, Dover International Speedway in Dover, Deleware. One of the coolest things about this track is the Monster trophy the winner receives. Dover is a track that is extremely difficult to pass at and where having the right dominators in your lineup is very important.

Last season at Dover we had two different type of races in regards to dominators. In the first 2020 Dover race, Denny Hamlin led the most last with 115 which is just 37%. In race number two it is more what we usually see with Kevin Harvick leading 223 laps (71.7%). What you need to decide when building your lineups on Sunday is if you need 1, 2, or potentially 3 dominators. I will probably keep my lineups to just two dominators personally, but if the salary works I don’t see any issues going with three, but do not force it.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Martin Truex Jr ($11,900)

Starting Position: 1st

Truex is on the pole for Sunday’s race and should dominate this race early. Over his last four races here, Truex has three 2nd place finishes and a win. Last season in the first Dover race, Truex led 88 laps and had 33 fastest laps while finishing 2nd. With how well the number 19 team is performing this season I would not be surprised to see Truex lead over 200 laps and winning this race. I anticipate Truex being among my highest-owned drivers on Sunday.

Kyle Larson ($11,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Larson is another previous winner here at Dover and should be in the running for a win on Sunday. In the Fall 2019 race, Larson won and dominated in the process. Larson has finished in the top five at Dover in 50% (6) of his races here and in the top ten 75% (9) of the time. I know he is expensive, like Truex (they are the top two priced drivers) but I think the prices could keep their ownership down some.

Denny Hamlin ($11,100)

Starting Position: 2nd

Early on in his career, Dover was one of Hamlin’s worst tracks, but now it has become another track where he dominates. In his last ten races here at Dover, Hamlin has seven top 10’s including winning here in the first race last year. In the second race, Hamlin was running in the top 5 (3rd) but had to make an unscheduled pit stop because of a loose wheel which led to him finishing 19th. Denny has yet to win this season and Sunday could be the day this winless streak ends for Hamlin and he joins his JGR teammates with victories this season.

Chase Elliott ($10,700)

Starting Position: 8th

Elliott is like Hamlin in that he hasn’t won a race in 2021 and is the only driver in the Hendrick stable of Chevy’s without a victory. Elliott is the reigning NASCAR Cup champion and it has to be eating him up that he hasn’t found success in 2021. Dover is one of Elliott’s best tracks as he has seven top 10 finishes in ten races here. In the first Dover race last season, Elliott led 27 laps and had 41 fastest laps, and finished 5th. I like Elliott for a top 5 finish on Sunday.

Other Top Tier Plays:

• Kyle Busch ($10,00) – P6: Busch has 3 wins at Dover and is averaging a finish of 5.5 in his last 5 races (minus Talladega)
• Kevin Harvick ($9,800) – P5: Harvick is a Dover ace and should compete for the win here. I really like pairing Harvick with one of the $11K drivers for a double dominator stack
• Brad Keselowski ($10,300) – P15: Keselowski has place differential upside and has finished between 8th and 12th in his last four races here. Also, Keselowski called the Xfinity race on Saturday which during this season has worked out well for drivers.
• Alex Bowman ($9,200) – P16: If Bowman can finally end his streak of bad races he could be in line for a top 5. Bowman has three top 5’s in his last 4 at Dover

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kurt Busch ($8,700)

Starting Position: 28th

Busch was also in the booth with Keselowski on Saturday and like Bowman, he is also trying to end a streak of poor finishes. In his last six races at Dover, Busch has finished between 5th and 13th five times. I know a lot of people will avoid Busch and I think his ownership should be around 20% and will make for a great large field GPP play.

Cole Custer ($7,700)

Starting Position: 30th

Custer is another driver that has not had a great run of late in the Cup Series but is due for a good run. Last year at Dover, Custer had finishes of 10th and 11th. In the second race here, Custer finished 10th while averaging a 10.1 average running position and had the 9th total speed ranking.

Ryan Blaney ($8,400)

Starting Position: 7th

I honestly think Blaney is underpriced for the value he can present on Sunday. Blaney hasn’t been outstanding at Dover, but he has top 10 upside here. In the second Dover race, Blaney led 37 laps, had the 5th best average running position and had the 5th best total speed ranking, and finished 12th. Blaney also has finished top 11 in five of the last six races this season and will probably carry sub 20% ownership.

Other Options: William Byron ($8,900 – P3), Aric Almirola ($8,200 – P32), Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chris Buescher ($6,600) – P10: Buescher will be low owned again, but with how well he has been driving this season I will take the risk in tournaments
2. Bubba Wallace ($6,900) – P22: Wallace has never finished better than 20th here, but he has been better of late and a top 20 isn’t out of the realm of possibility
3. Daniel Suarez ($6,300) – P24: Suarez had an average finish of 8.6 at Dover prior to 2020 and had never finished worse than 14th
4. Ross Chastain ($6,500) – P19: Chastain and the 42 team have been improving weekly this season and have finishes of 17th or better in 5 straight races
5. Ryan Newman ($6,800) – P13: Newman is an experienced driver who knows his way around the track. I like Newman for a top 20 on Sunday
6. Chase Briscoe ($6,100) – P17: We saw Briscoe have his best finish last week, but temper expectations. I see Briscoe finishing right around where he started
7. Ryan Preece ($5,900) – P25: Preece has never finished better than 19th at Dover, but he has outdriven expectations all season, so don’t be surprised with a top 15 on Sunday
8. Josh Berry ($5,300) – P29: Berry has had a great weekend at Dover, but this will be the worst equipment he has driven all week. I don’t expect much more than a high 20’s finish though
9. Michael McDowell ($6,200) – P21: McDowell is a mid 20’s driver at Dover and that’s where I anticipate he finishes on Sunday
10. Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) – P27: Once again, Alfredo is in play if you need the salary relief, but he isn’t going to finish better than mid 20’s

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