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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
We are back at the Daytona Road Course for one last time this weekend with the Cup Series O’Reilly Auto Parts 253! This is another “short” race when it comes to lap count, but with the track being 3.61 miles it ends up being much longer than you’d think. Over the previous two races this weekend we saw that craziness can and will ensue at this track, less than we saw at the Daytona oval last week, but still some carnage albeit on a smaller scale.
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000)
Starting Position: 19th
Martin Truex Jr. is an elite road course racer and probably the best one in the series not named Chase Elliott. Truex was the best car at this race last season and was the fastest on track for 75% of the race, the only segment he wasn’t the fastest was when he was racing in traffic after taking a pit road speeding penalty at the end of stage 2. Truex finished 3rd here last season while leading 10 laps and is the last driver to win a road course race before Chase Elliott started his 4 race win streak at these tracks. Earlier this season at The Clash, Truex once again drove through the field with ease and was leading when he wrecked in the bus stop, ending his night.
Chase Elliott ($10,700)
Starting Position: 1st
Like I mentioned in my MTJ breakdown above, Elliott has owned road courses over the previous 2+ years in the Cup series. It’s been a while since Elliott didn’t end a road course in victory lane with 4 straight wins it was in Sonoma in 2019 that Truex beat Elliott out for the win. Now, I think Elliott dominates the first stage of this race and leads 40-50 laps of this race, but I can understand why a fade of the 2020 champion is something you’d consider if only building one lineup. Elliott’s upside is capped because of his starting position and the place differential upside of someone like a Truex is more appealing because he can win this race, lead 20+ laps and get a +18 PD.
Denny Hamlin ($9,800)
Starting Position: 4th
Hamlin seems to get lost in the shuffle some with the focus on Elliott and Truex for road course races, but Hamlin is plenty capable on these tracks as well. Last year at the Daytona Road Course, Hamlin finished 2nd, won Stage 2, led 16 laps and had a 5th place average running position. Hamlin ranked as the 2nd Fastest Driver Late In A Run and he was 3rd in total speed. Because the focus will be on Elliott and Truex we could get Hamlin at lower than normal ownership. I will definitely have exposure to both Elliott and Truex, but I think Hamlin may be the driver I have the most exposure too.
Top Tier Driver Rankings:
- Chase Elliott
- Martin Truex Jr.
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Ryan Blaney – Elliott and Truex have combined to win 8 of the last 9 RC races, Blaney is the one driver to beat them both in that stretch.
- Alex Bowman – I am really high on Alex and the 48 this week. He starts deep in the field (36th) and has finished between 8th and 14th in his last 4 of his last 5 road course races.
- Joey Logano
- Brad Keselowski
- AJ Allmendinger – Yes, AJ is a great road course driver, but he doesn’t have the equipment needed to compete with the top guys in the Cup series. I will probably have him at 10-20% in my lineups just in case but he isn’t the top option he is in the Xfinity series.
- Kevin Harvick – Harvick has seemingly spent more time in the Daytona grass than the pavement at recent races here.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
William Byron ($8,800)
Starting Position: 22nd
William Byron is a sneaky play, as usual, and is actually a very good road course driver. His price will keep his ownership low I believe and I plan to take advantage of that by having a lot of exposure to the #24 car. Over his last three road course races, Byron has an average finish of 6.6 and has not finished lower than 8th. Earlier this year at the Busch Clash, Byron lost a tire early in the race but recovered to finish 5th.
Chase Briscoe ($8,400)
Starting Position: 18th
Like I mentioned in the discord chat earlier this week, Briscoe was one of the best road course racers in the Xfinity Series last season. At this track in 2020, Briscoe led 26 laps, and was leading when he got caught up in a late wreck that led to him finishing 29th. Also last season at the Roval, Briscoe was leading with two laps to go, but had an incident due to the rain and finished 18th after leading 23 laps in that race. Briscoe isn’t a threat to win, but he could be a sneaky top 10 pick in this race on Sunday.
Kyle Larson ($8,300)
Starting Position: 8th
Might as well complete the Hendrick Motorsports foursome with Larson. This is the best equipment that Larson has ever driven and he already had great runs at road courses in less equipment. In 2018 at the Charlotte Roval (most similar track), Larson led 47 laps and was one of the best cars on the track all day but was collected up in a late race wreck which led to him finishing 25th. Larson had finishes of 8th, 10th, and 13th at the three road course races in 2019. Oh, and now Larson has access to Chase Elliott and his setup for road courses.
Christopher Bell ($7,700)
Starting Position: 12th
Bell had minimal success at road courses in 2020 in the #95 Leavine Family Racing Toyota, but now he is in the Joe Gibbs #20 and we know the Gibbs cars do well at road courses. Last year at this race Bell’s pit strategy came into play and sunk him leading to a 21st place finish. During this race though, Bell was the 9th best in total speed ranking, and was in 7th with 20 laps to go until he spun out by himself with 8 laps to go.
Other Options: Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100), Tyler Reddick ($7,500), Kurt Busch ($8,600), Aric Almirola ($7,900), Chris Buescher ($7,200), Erik Jones ($7,800)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Ty Dillon ($5,600) – P38 – Dillon has an average finish of 24.5 in his last 6 RC races, I will take that on Sunday at this price. Dillon is also WAYYYYY too cheap on FD ($2,500)
- Michael McDowell ($6,800) – P2 – I know it’s hard to consider McDowell at this price, but he is a capable road course racer and is viable in LF GPP’s
- Daniel Suarez ($5,700) – P35 – Suarez is an OK RC racer, a mid 20’s finish wouldn’t surprise me.
- Ricky Stenhouse ($6,100) – P16 – Nobody will play him, and maybe he’s due. Stenhouse had a decent run at The Clash earlier this year so maybe he’s found something
- Timmy Hill ($5,100) – This is Timmy’s third race this weekend, so he should know the track well. He starts dead last and is cheap.
- Bubba Wallace ($6,300) – P10 – Starting a little too high, but he is in his best equipment ever and has the best team he’s ever had.
- Ross Chastain ($6,100) – P9 – Chastain was a good road course racer in the Xfinity, but can he make it happen in the Cup Series? We will find out
- James Davison ($5,200) – P39 – Price is higher than I’d want, but he does have high 20’s/early 30’s potential. If enough wrecks happen he could finish mid 20’s.
- Scott Heckert ($4,800) P28 – Driving the #78 of BJ McLeod this weekend, Heckert is a road course ringer. I think he is cheap enough to take a shot, but not if you’re playing a single bullet lineup.
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