NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Daytona 500 2/14

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the start of the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series’ article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

If you were with us all weekend then you saw the carnage that was the Truck and Xfinity series races. We actually only had 9 cars end up unscathed in the Xfinity race on Saturday and while we can see something similar in the Cup Series on Sunday, it’s more likely we have more clean cars than 9.

Daytona Lineup Construction:

For those who are new to NASCAR DFS or were not in discord this weekend, I spent a lot of time preaching leaving salary on the table. It is key that you don’t just load up on the top-priced drivers because they will generally in the lead pack when the “big one” hits.

This race is a little different because some of the top tier drivers are starting further back in the field so that makes them good plays. We will still have salary left over, but not as much as in past races. Looking back at 2020 and the four Superspeedway races we had an average of $5,000 (on DK) being left on the table for the optimal lineup. Talladega’s 2nd race had the biggest amount at $8,700. Last year’s Daytona 500 optimal lineup had $3,800 in salary left, and in 2019 there was $3,700 leftover. Lastly, in 2020 none of the top 11 finishers started higher than 19th.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Denny Hamlin ($10,400)

Starting Position: 25th

Hamlin is the two defending winner of the Daytona 500 and is set up nicely to make it a 3 peat. Is Denny Hamlin going to be chalk on Sunday? Yes, no question he will be and I will probably have plenty of exposure to him. Hamlin has a very high chance of being the highest scoring driver in this race and fading him just doesn’t make sense to me. There are plenty of other ways to be different in this race and fading Hamlin isn’t one of them for me

Brad Keselowski ($10,100)

Starting Position: 24th (moving to rear of the field)

Keselowski has had a ton of success at Superspeedways in his career (6 wins – best in the series) but his recent runs at Daytona have not been great. Since winning the July 2016 Daytona race in a dominant performance, Keselowski has finished 27th or worse in 6 of 8 races. Keselowski is definitely playable on Sunday but he is a higher risk play then the others in this tier.

Ryan Blaney ($10,000)

Starting Position: 14th

Ryan Blaney is one of the series best Superspeedway drivers, but he unfortunately seems to find bad luck at these races. In the Daytona 500, Blaney has an average finish of 3.6 (if you don’t count his wreck in 2019) and has finished 2nd twice in that span. Blaney is someone I plan to have plenty of exposure too and could easily find himself in the winners circle

Joey Logano ($9,9000

Starting Position: 9th

Logano will probably one of the lowest owned drivers in this tier because where he starts, but that doesn’t scare me. Logano has performed exceptionally well at the Daytona 500 and if he didn’t wreck late in 2020’s 500, Logano would have six straight top 6’s. In the 5 previous 500’s, Logano had an average finish of 4.2 including a win in 2015.

Other Options: Chase Elliott ($10,300), Kyle Busch ($9,500), Kevin Harvick ($9,700)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($9,000)

Starting Position: 2nd (Starting from the rear)

Byron has been of the best drivers at Superspeedways since the restrictor plates have gone away. If you are playing single entry or one lineup then Byron is not someone you should roster, but he is a great play for MME. Byron is the most recent winner at Daytona, securing his playoff spot last fall with his Daytona victory.

Aric Almirola ($8,600)

Starting Position: 3rd

Here is another MME play, but at the same time, Almirola could be a sneaky good GPP play. Starting in P3 he will seemingly go unowned which is good for us. Almirola has won this race before and earlier this week he led 52 laps on his way to winning his Duel race this week.

Ricky Stenhouse ($8,100)

Starting Position: 21st

Stenhouse should be higher owned, but there are some who just refuse to play him in the NASCAR DFS community. While he has been a great performer at Superspeedways in his career, Stenhouse has problems finishing races. Stenhouse has an average finish of 22.6 in his last 6 Daytona 500 races, but one thing that can be said about Stenhouse is he races with more passion and intensity then any driver on the track most weeks. Eventually it will all fall into place for Stenhouse, so why not Sunday?

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900)

Starting Position: 23rd

Matty D is entering a crucial season for him. We already know he won’t be back in this care next season as Austin Cindric is prepared to take over, so he will need to earn his next seat. DiBenedetto has been a solid Superspeedway performer finishing between 7th and 13th in 5 of his last 8 races at these track. It will take some work, but DiBenedetto and the #21 could come home with a top 10 on Sunday.

Other Options: Kyle Larson ($8,500), Austin Dillon ($8,300), Alex Bowman ($9,200), Christopher Bell ($7,600), Kurt Busch ($8,800)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ryan Newman (P7) – Newman has the tendency to bide his time and find a way to avoid the big ones. ($7,000)
2. Bubba Wallace (P6) – Wallace has worked with the JGR Toyotas all week and should be again on Sunday. They could pull him to a top 5 ($7,400)
3. Chris Buescher (P22) – Sneaky top 10 potential for a driver that people always seem to overlook ($6,900)
4. Michael McDowell (P17) – McDowell has only finished lower than 15th in his previous 5 Daytona 500’s once. ($6,300)
5. Corey Lajoie (P16) – It seems like every year I pass on playing Lajoie at Daytona and then he finishes in the top 10. I am not passing on him this year ($5,800)
6. Erik Jones (P31) – Jones is a great driver who gets little respect. Last season at Talladega Jones finished top 5 in both races. ($7,300)
7. David Ragan (P18) – Ragan is a Superspeedway ringer. Last year Ragan finished 4th and is a two-time winner at this track ($5,400)
8. Tyler Reddick (P29) – Reddick hasn’t been too successful in his previous Daytona races, but he showed promise with a 7th place finish at Talladega last season ($7,100)
9. Chase Briscoe (P30) – Briscoe is a series rookie but last season in the Xfinity Series he did pick up two top 5 finishes at Daytona ($6,500)
10. Austin Cindric (P39) – Cindric just won the Xfinity race here on Saturday and is in a Penske Ford so he should be able to pull a top 20.

Honorable Mention:

Jamie McMurray ($6,400)

Starting Position: 19th

McMurray is a past 500 winner and is cheap enough to make the optimal lineup on Sunday. I will probably have him in one lineup because you just never know

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