NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Darlington 5/9/21

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

The Cup Series will complete the throwback weekend from Darlington on Sunday with the Goodyear 400! This weekend we will have plenty of teams running variances of old-school paint schemes(See them all here). This is another high tire wear track that makes pit strategy, caution timing, and driver experience extra important. It is important to use history at Darlington and other tracks like it when deciding which drivers to choose. Typically a driver who has never driven or has never had success at the track “Too Tough To Tame” won’t on Sunday either.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,400)

Starting Position: 14th

Larson has been spectacular at Darlington during his career. In his last four races (missed all three in 2020) he has three finishes of 3rd or better and has an average finish of 5.5. Larson also loves to run the high line at tracks like this with high tire wear, which in most races is usually the faster line. We saw that be the case in both of the previous races this weekend so Sunday should be no different. I know his price is steep, but I think there is just enough value to get Larson into your lineups on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick ($9,600)

Starting Position: 2nd

Throughout the 2021 season, people have been questioning if Harvick was done and what happened to Stewart-Haas Racing. I was one of those people, but of late Harvick has been one of the best drivers on the track each week. Harvick is coming to Darlington on back-to-back top 5 finishes and three top 10’s in the last four. Now coming off four solid weeks we get to a track where Harvick has been virtually unbeatable lately. Last season at Darlington, Harvick won twice, lead an avg of 67 laps P/R, and had an average finish of 1.7. In his last ten races here, Harvick has nine top 5 finishes as well.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300)

Starting Position: 4th

Like the two drivers on this list before him, Truex has to be considered a driver who can win this race and dominate it. At high tire wear tracks like Darlington, Truex has the 2nd best speed rating. Last fall Truex dominated this race after winning both of the first two stages and having the fastest car. He had a misleading 22nd place finish because as he was chasing down Chase Elliott, he got caught up with him and forced him into the back of the pack. In that race, Truex also led 196 laps and had 90 fastest laps.

Alex Bowman ($9,400)

Starting Position: 19th

Bowman is one of the best high tire wear track drivers in the entire field, and he owns two wins at two of these tracks (Chicagoland and Auto Club). This season at high tire wear tracks Bowman owns a 3rd place finish at Atlanta and a 9th at Homestead. Bowman is a bit risky and is a GPP only play with how he is currently running in 2021. Over his last five races, Bowman has only finished better than 18th once, his win at Richmond.

Denny Hamlin ($10,600)

Starting Position: 7th

Hamlin is a three-time winner at the track “Too Tough To Tame” including winning the one race that Kevin Harvick didn’t win last year. It is very surprising that Hamlin hasn’t found his way to victory lane yet in 2021, and even though he leads the series in points, Hamlin needs that win and it could come on Sunday. Hamlin should have been a factor here last fall but made a crucial mistake on pit road that took him from 3rd to the last teens and he ended up in 13th.

Remaining Top Tier Drivers (Ranked):

1. Kyle Busch ($9,800) – P3
2. Brad Keselowski ($10,000) – P1
3. Chase Elliott ($9,200) – P6
4. Ryan Blaney ($9,000) – P16
5. Joey Logano ($11,100) – P12

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

William Byron ($8,800)

Starting Position: 5th

I love Byron again this week, even though the projections don’t. Byron has a top 10 finish in nine straight weeks and has an average finish of 6th in those nine races. Byron did not fair well in the first Darlington race last season where he finished 35th thanks to an early wreck. In the next two Darlington races, Byron redeemed himself with 12th and then 5th place finishes. Byron should make this 10 straight weeks with a top 10 on Sunday.

Kurt Busch ($8,400)

Starting Position: 15th

This is a spot where I trust a driver who has been here before and performed well. Busch has not had a good 2021 season, he has been fast but just can’t get it done. In a complete 180 to Byron, it has been 8 races since Busch has a top 10, but at Darlington this could come to an end. In five of his six last Darlington, Kurt has finished between 3rd and 8th. Busch is a very risky play, obviously, but like I said in the open you want to trust and use drivers who have had success at Darlington, and that is Kurt Busch

Austin Dillon ($7,500)

Starting Position: 9th

Dillon hasn’t races many times at Darlington (9 races) but he has had success here. Dillon has finished top 12 in six races here, and in three of the last four he has finished 11th or better. Last fall Dillon finished 2nd to Harvick. This season at high tire wear tracks Austin finished 6th at Atlanta and 12th at Homestead.

Other Options: Christopher Bell ($8,600 – P21), Erik Jones ($8,200 – P26), Ricky Stenhouse ($7,600 – P28), Aric Almirola ($8,000 – P28), Ryan Newman ($7,200 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Chris Buescher ($6,500) – P11: Buescher has had some low to mid teen finishes at Darlington and has had good runs at high tire wear tracks this season
2. Ross Chastain ($6,300) – P18: Chastain is a mid teens upside driver since this is where he lands every week.
3. Ryan Preece ($5,900) – P29: At best Preece should be a low 20’s play on Sunday.
4. Daniel Suarez ($6,700) – P21: Suarez and 99 team have been competitive every week, don’t be surprised if they pull out a low teens finish
5. Michael McDowell ($6,100) – P13: McDowell is probably going to end up in the mid to high teens. He is cheap enough to make value if he can pull that off. GPP only
6. Chase Briscoe ($6,800) – P22: Pretty good chance Briscoe finishes just about where he starts. There isn’t much upside but he does have a win in the Xfinity Series here so he does have a feel for the track
7. Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P30: Will need some attrition to make value which is not entirely out of the question on Sunday
8. Anthony Alfredo ($5,400) – P25: Cheap, but VERY risky. Play at your own risk this week.

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