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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
Elimimation Sunday from The Roval!
This Sunday is the last race of the second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs and only eight of the remaining 12 drivers can advance. Looking at what needs to happen, both Alex Bowman ($8,900) and William Byron ($9,700) must win to move on so their strategy will be different. Christopher Bell ($8,400) probably needs to win, but if it falls apart for one of the drivers ahead of him he could sneak in. Lastly, Kevin Harvick ($8,200) can get in if either Elliott or Kyle Busch falter, which is unlikely so it looks like Harvick may need Ryan Blaney to have a bad race which is more likely for Harvick to move on. I mention all this because some of these drivers will make different decisions when it comes to pitting to pick up stage points.
As for the race itself, there is a good chance we have some slight carnage on Sunday afternoon. NASCAR has decided to, smartly, remove the black and yellow bumps along the backstretch that caused a lot of problems on Saturday. This should lead to fewer cars getting torn up and leave us with a cleaner race.
The Elite (No, not Kenny Omega and the Young Bucks)
Three drivers are ELITE when it comes to road courses and I plan on having plenty of exposure to all three and will try to fit two of them in every lineup. If you are a NASCAR fan or have been here all season you know who I am talking about:
Kyle Larson ($10,300 – P10), Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P8), and Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100 – P5
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
AJ Allmendinger ($11,200)
Starting Position: 33rd
Do not adjust your screens, you are not reading the Xfinity Series article, Allmendinger is also the top play (outside of the Elite) on this slate as well. Elliott projects as the highest owned driver, but Allmendinger is right behind him (40% PO). Nobody on this slate has more upside and is as safe as Allmendinger. I know it is sort of a habit in DFS to fade chalk on occasion, but when you have a driver in NASCAR who will probably be the highest-scoring driver on the slate you cannot fade him. Allmendinger has won three straight Xfinity races at this track and that experience will undoubtedly help him get through the field on Sunday.
Ross Chastain ($9,300)
Starting Position: 23rd
Chastain has been solid at road courses since joining Chip Ganassi this season. While he does have two top 25’s here at The Roval, those were in much worse equipment, now that he’s in the 42 I expect a top 10 from Chastain on Sunday. If you remove his two poor finishes (wrecks) at Indy and Daytona RC, Chastain is averaging a 7.5 finishing position.
William Byron ($9,700)
Starting Position: 11th
Byron is coming into this race with back-to-back 6th place finishes at this track and will need more than that to move on. Now, Byron has not been great at road courses this season, but he does have the 7th best total speed ranking at this track type which tells me he has speed, bt has just run into some bad luck. I see Byron as a top 10 candidate this week if he can stay out of trouble.
Other Options: Kyle Busch ($9,900 – P9): Kyle has been an outstanding road course racer this season and projects at sub 20% ownership. Denny Hamlin ($9,500 – P1): Hamlin is racing stress-free and is good enough on this track type to lead some laps early.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Tyler Reddick ($7,800)
Starting Position: 29th
Reddick is going to be semi-popular (>30% PO) and with good reason. Not only does he offer up some big-time place differential upside, but Reddick also has been a good road course racer. Last year at this track Reddick finished 16th. This season at road courses, Reddick has an average finishing position of 17.5 with three top 10’s. I see Reddick as a top 15 driver with a top 10 upside.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900)
Starting Position: 30th
It is pretty much a 1 and 1a situation with Reddick DiBenedetto on Sunday. Both project for similar ownership and points. In the last three road course races this season, Matty D has finished between 5th and 11th and has the fourth-best average finish in the Cup Series (8.7). DiBenedetto is probably a lock for a top 15, and like Reddick has top 10 upside as well.
Chase Briscoe ($7,600)
Starting Position: 22nd
Briscoe is one of the top road course racers in the Cup Series and as he gains experience he could become elite. This is Briscoe’s first Cup Series run at the Roval, but not his first time here. Briscoe won the first Xfinity race here in 2018 and led 33 laps. In 2019, Briscoe led 21 laps and finished 9th, and in 2020 Briscoe should’ve won but after leading 23 laps he spun with two laps to go in the rain and finished 18th. This season in the Cup Series, Briscoe has an average finish of 16th and has three top 10’s at this track type.
Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,700 – P13): Busch has an avg finish of 6.6 (minus COTA where he wrecked in the rain) on road courses in 2021. Justin Haley ($7,400 – P38), Joey Logano ($8,100 – P3)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Cole Custer ($5,700) – P23: Custer is an above average road coure racer and has a 9th place here last year. Custer has an avg finish of 21st, but that’s skewed because of his 36th finish at COTA, he does also have three top 20’s this seaosn at this track type.
- Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P31: Preece is probably going to be the popular play in this tier, but not chalky (there is a difference). I expect to see Preece around 25-30% owned. In his two races at the Roval, Preece has an avg finish of 17.5.
- Joey Hand ($6,200) – P36: Hand has never raced in a NASCAR event, but he is a road course ringer. Hand will be in the RWR #52 car, but this car will be prepped by Stewart-Haas so he should be somewhat competitive. I expect a mid twenties finish from Hand on Sunday.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,600) – P18: Stenhouse starts high this week, but he has been good at this track type in 2021. Stenhouse has an avg finish of 16.4 (minus Sonoma where he had engine issues) at road courses and has back to back 17th place finishes here.
- Corey Lajoie ($5,500) – P26: Lajoie has finished top 24 in all but one road course race (Daytona) and if you take that out of the equation he has an avg finish of 19.8. Lajoie is a mid to low 20’s driver in my opinion on Sunday.
- Scott Heckert ($5,900) – P35: This season Heckert has run two races on road courses in 2021 in the #78. Heckert has finished 26th and 28th in his two races.
- Timmy Hill ($4,900) – P39: Hill starts last on Sunday, but he will be in the slowest car in the field. We know it can wild here at the Roval, so if he can stay on the track long enough he could pick up 3-5 spots and make value. Previously this season on this track type, Hill has finished 27th and 29th both of those would suffice for his salary.
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