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Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
For the first time in 50 years, the NASCAR Cup Series will be racing on a dirt track. The last time NASCAR raced the Cup cars on dirt Richard Petty won! Friday was the first time the Cup cars ran laps on the track and NASCAR was forced to make some adjustments to the race because of certain issues that arose.
One major issue was tire wear which led to NASCAR making the stage breaks. We will now have stage 1 and 2 consisting of 100 laps with the third stage being a 50 lap sprint. NASCAR has also added competition cautions at lap 50 and 150. Since the tire wear was greater than expected and cars cannot pit under green, NASCAR was forced to add more yellow flags to allow teams to change tires as needed, and they allowed the teams an extra set of sticker tires so that each team now has 6 sets as opposed to the original 5.
When it comes to building lineups for Sunday, there are a few different things I am looking at. First I want to focus on drivers who have dirt track experience, but not the dirt track ringers, but I want drivers who are in good equipment. Secondly, I want to look at practice sessions and see who was fast and ran well. Lastly, I still want to look at the current season and see what cars are currently running well in 2021.
This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Kyle Larson ($12,000)
Starting Position: 1st – Starting from rear because of engine change
Larson was far and away the fastest car in both practice sessions on Friday but has overheating issues and the team was forced to change the engine in the 5 forcing him to start from the rear. Nobody in this field has a better history on dirt (of Cup regulars) and is in some of the best equipment in the series. Larson will probably low owned now that he is starting at the rear but that doesn’t deter me from rostering him, he will get back up front I believe and in the end, he will end up in victory lane. It will be hard for Larson to get the dominator points he needs to make value but it is feasible.
Tyler Reddick ($10,500)
Starting Position: 27th
Reddick has some enormous place differential starting from P27 on Sunday making him one of the top plays. Looking at lap averages from Friday’s “happy hour” (second practice session), Reddick improved over time. Reddick showed plenty of speed over time as he ran laps and was second to only Larson when it came to 15, 20, and 25 lap averages.
Christopher Bell ($11,000)
Starting Position: 15th
Both Bell and Reddick will most likely be the chalkier plays of this tier but with the upside both have, especially Bell, I want to have some exposure to them. Bell has some great history at Eldora in the Truck series including a win and 3 total top 10 finishes and 128 laps led in just three races. I do worry because Bell didn’t show much speed on Friday running no higher than 25th in 10 and 15 lap average speed.
Austin Dillon ($9,700)
Starting Position: 9th
Dillon is a fantastic dirt track driver and he has been having an outstanding season in the RCR #3 Chevy. Last week, Dillon ran 3 races at Bristol at the Nationals and won all three of his features. If Larson doesn’t win, there is a good chance that Dillon gets the #3 into victory lane. In practice on Friday, Dillon did not have great lap times, but he said he really likes his car and he wasn’t pushing the car because of the tire wear issues. If the driver likes his car, no matter the lap times, I like his car.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($10,200)
Starting Position: 13th
Stenhouse is another one of the great dirt track driver in the field on Sunday. Early on this season, Stenhouse has been a pleasant surprise as he has finished no worse than 18th and has four straight top 15 finishes. Stenhouse not only loves racing on dirt, he even owns a World of Outlaws team. I really love the upside from Stenhouse on Sunday and I plan to have a lot of Stenhouse in my lineups.
- Denny Hamlin ($9,100) – P2: Hamlin could lead a lot of early laps since he will now be on the pole
- Chase Briscoe ($9,900) – P25: Briscoe is a decorated dirt track racer, but he hasn’t had the best season. I will probably have some exposure but not more than 10-20%
- Ryan Blaney ($9,300) – P3: Blaney started out in the top 10 in Happy Hour, faded in the middle of the session, but figured it out again by the end. I think Blaney could be a surprise dominator in this race.
- Stewart Friesen ($10,500) – P32: Friesen is another great dirt track racer but I worry about him being very chalky. I think he could easily make value at his price with PD, but the #77 is not the type of equipment Friesen is used to.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Alex Bowman ($7,700)
Starting Position, 7th
Bowman isn’t, in his own words, a dirt guy per se but he probably has more dirt starts than most. In practice on Friday, Bowman had the 2nd best 10 lap average in the first session. Bowman then ran the 5th best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. He was able to run the high line in practice which is the faster line and if he can do that on Sunday he could surprise some with a top 5 finish here.
Kyle Busch ($8,900)
Starting Position: 4th
Kyle Busch has been looking like the Kyle Busch of old lately with three top 10 finishes and two top 5’s in his last four races. Busch does have 2 wins at Bristol Dirt, both of which came last week at the Dirt Nationals. Now, it was not the same type of competition that Kyle will see on Sunday, but seat time on this track is just, if not more, important.
William Byron ($7,100)
Starting Position: 8th
Byron does not have much dirt racing experience outside of his one run at Eldora in 2016 where he finished 14th. I love Byron’s price and it will be easy for him to make value with the current form he and his team are in. Byron did not have a great first practice but his team made the changes needed and he went from the 23rd best 10 lap average to the 7th best in the second practice session.
Other Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($8,000 – P5), Bubba Wallace ($8,500 – P19), Joey Logano ($8,300 – P10th), Kevin Harvick ($8,100 – P6), Kurt Busch ($7,800 – P28)
Place Differential Play: Chase Elliott ($8,700 – P26)
Elliot is starting from P26 which makes him one of the best plays on this slate. He is definitely a great cash gameplay and good for single entry as well. Elliott was very consistent in practice running the 4th best 10 lap average in both, and the third-best 15 lap average.
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Ryan Newman ($6,900) – P14: Newman is a great dirt track driver with an extensive background. Newman finished with the 11th best 10 lap avg
- Matt DiBenedetto ($6,700) – P12: Matty D is a top 10 threat and like Newman, he is a driver with significant dirt experience
- Corey Lajoie ($5,000) – P30: Lajoie put in some laps at the Dirt Nationals last week. At practice this week Lajoie had the 19th best 15 lap average and the 18th best 10 lap average
- Cole Custer ($5,100) – P21: Custer was middle of the pack in both practice sessions and a top 20 is the cards for sure
- Ty Dillon ($6,600) P39: I wish Dillon was a little cheaper but like his brother, he has some dirt track seat time and could contend for a top 20
- Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P22: Preece is not a dirt track driver but he does exceptionally well at Bristol normally. Last fall Preece finished 9th, and this weekend at practice Preece had the 11th best 15 lap average.
- Michael McDowell ($5,200 – P16: McDowell has stated his strategy is to ride around for 249 laps and push it after cars in front of him. McDowell wasn’t great in 1st practice but they fixed the issue it would seem since he finished inside the top ten in Happy Hour
- Chris Buescher ($6,200) – P11: This isn’t a great play but if you want to be different, then Buescher is the guy for me
- Anthony Alfredo ($4,800) – P29: I don’t love Alfredo today, but he starts far enough back that he can make some value at his price. A top 25 is almost a lock if he can avoid the carnage and a top 20 is possible.
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