NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Bristol 9/18

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

It’s Bristol week! Bristol may be a short track, but it is one the fastest shorts tracks in America. We have 500, yes FIVE HUNDRED laps of dominator points to collect on Saturday. Picking our dominators will be of the utmost importance on Saturday. This is a race where you should roster three dominators on both sites.

One of the most important things when looking at drivers for Bristol is experience. Drivers who have run well here usually always do. One driver who we were all over last week was race winner Martin Truex Jr. but this week he isn’t going to be in this article.

Another thing to keep in mind for this track is how well drivers have run with the 750 HP package at ovals. When looking over the recent history we will see that the last three Bristol races have been won by someone starting inside the top 4. Over the last ten years, only three times in 20 races have someone starting lower than 12th won.

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($11,300)

Starting Position: 5th

After a bad stretch in 2015-16, Kyle Larson has been dominating at Bristol. In six races since 2017, Larson has finished lower than 9th once and has led 551 laps. Larson was this good at Bristol in equipment that isn’t on par with what he is now. Larson is my pick to win this race and we could realistically lead 300 laps.

Denny Hamlin ($10,800)

Starting Position: 2nd

Hamlin is another great performer at Bristol from the pole here in 2019. This season nobody has been faster in the 750 package at ovals than Hamlin. I like how Hamlin has been driving since the playoffs started and he will be in contention all night. I love pairing Hamlin and Larson together as they have the potential to dominate this race and lead 75% or more of the 500 laps in this race.

Kevin Harvick ($9,000)

Starting Position: 8th

I know, not who you were expecting. I wasn’t either, and honestly, I don’t remember the last time I wrote Harvick up in my article. But, when you look at how good Harvick has been at Bristol and with the 750 HP Package it is hard to ignore him. Last season at this race, Harvick led 226 and won the race. Harvick also has the 5th best speed rankings with this package at ovals this season. Harvick should be a threat for the win here again, but with his salary being so low, he should be optimal with a top 10.

Chase Elliott ($10,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Elliott has become an elite driver at Bristol over the last 12-18 months. Last season Elliott finished 7th in this race and led 23 laps. Elliott has not won a points race at Bristol, but he did win the All-Star race here in 2020. Over the previous five Bristol races, nobody has been better. Elliott has the best driver rating, has led an average of 58.8 laps per race (led no less than 23 in any of the five), and has the best average running position. On Saturday look for Elliott to be one of the highest-scoring drivers on both sites.

Other Option: William Byron ($9,200 – P14): Love his potential upside here and needs to run well to advance so he will be aggressive. Ryan Blaney ($9,400 – P7), Kyle Busch ($11,500 – P9)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Austin Dillon ($8,200)

Starting Position: 18th

Dillon didn’t originally pop off the page at me, but when you look at where he starts and where he has been finishing at Bristol he should’ve. In his last six races, Dillon has finished in the top 15 five times. Usually, I would like guys like Dillon to be lower-priced, but his salary will most likely keep his ownership down both sites, but especially DK. I see Austin as a top 10 upside, but more realistically finishing somewhere between 12th and 15th.

Bubba Wallace ($7,500)

Starting Position: 28th

Wallace is another driver I expect to be low-owned, but only on DK. FanDuel has him priced too low, but DK priced him appropriately. In his six career races at Bristol, Wallace has only wrecked once and outside of that race has never finished lower than 22nd. Wallace also has three finished of 16th or better, all of this in lesser equipment.

Brad Keselowski ($8,600)

Starting Position: 10th

Keselowski is a solid performer at Bristol, including his victory here last spring. I know he has not been running well of late, so this is a semi risky play but he has some good upside. No driver has averaged more laps led here in the past two seasons at Bristol and Keselowski has led in all four of those races.

Other Options: Ross Chastain ($7,800 – P17): Chastain and Dillon have similar projections for this race so if you need the salary relief Chastain is a great pivot. Aric Almirola ($7,300 – P12), Ricky Stenhouse ($7,200 – P23), Christopher Bell ($8,800 – P6)

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 – P19) is really only an option for me on FanDuel. I don’t love the price on DK, but on Fanduel he fits perfect for three dominator builds.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ryan Preece ($6,000) – P27: Preece seems to have Bristols number. He has only raced here four times in a Cup car and has never finished lower than 25th (his first race) and even finished 9th here last year at this race. Preece has an average finish position of 13th in the last three races here.
2. Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P21: Suarez has been great at Bristol in his career. Outside of last season when he drove the #96 (TERRIBLE car), Suarez has finished no lower than 18th and has an avg finish of 13th
3. Chris Buescher ($6,700) – P25: Buescher and the 17 team have been coming home with some great finishes lately. Over the last 6 races, Buescher has an avg finish of 13.2 and also has the 20th best speed ranking with this engine package in 2021.
4. Erik Jones ($6,400) – P22: Jones is a GPP play this week and is not really safe for anything else. In his career, Jones has performed well, but that was in JGR equipment. I expect Jones to be a high teens driver on Saturday.
5. Corey Lajoie ($5,600) – P31: Lajoie is one of the better, and safer, place differential plays on this slate. Lajoie has been a high teens driver of late and I expect much of the same Saturday.
6. Garrett Smithley ($4,700) – P36: I don’t love the play, but I need to try and squeeze as many dominators in my builds as possible and Smithley helps with that. In two races here he has finishes of 26th and 32nd, both of which would make him hit value on Saturday. It’s a risky play, but he starts second to last so he can’t hurt too bad.
7. Cole Custer ($6,900) – P26: Custer is slightly expensive, but the upside is there. I wouldn’t play him on FD, I think his salary is a little too high there. Custer is a mid to low 20’s driver with top 20 upside.
8. Michael McDowell ($5,400) – P16: McDowell is super risky and this team has been bad of late. With that being said, McDowell NEEDS a win to advance in the playoffs so if they are around at the end of the race he will be aggresive trying to get to the front.

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