NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series Atlanta 7/11/21

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.

Something a litte different …

Since we have already been to Atlanta this season and since it’s your basic 1.5-mile high tire wear track I want to change up my open a little this week and focus on something different but just as, or more, important.

I want to start by reiterating something I talked about in discord this week. Contest selection is key in NASCAR like in all other DFS sports you need to pick the contests that fit your playing style. If you are an MME type of player then max those types of contests out to optimize your potential wins. But, if you are like most of the subscribers here and play one lineup a race you need to focus on the single entry contests. There are two in particular on DraftKings that I really like and Brian will back me up on this, the $12 and $24 SINGLE ENTRY contests are the best contests I have found. If you plan on playing 2-3 lineups in the $4 or $5 large field GPP you might be better suited switching to one semi-cash style build and play the $12 SE to maximize your win potential. That contest in particular is nice because minimum cash payout is $25, more than double your entry fee.

Lineup Building:

I mentioned semi-cash style lineups in the last paragraph and if you’re not sure what I mean by that, I will elaborate. When I build single entry style lineups I look to use 3-4 high ownership safe plays, like I did last weekend in the $12 SE. I used 4 drivers I knew were going to be popular but had a big, safe upside. I rounded it out with a low-owned Kurt Busch (15%) and a semi-chalky Ricky Stenhouse (29%). In that contest, the one lineup that beat mine had 5 of the same drivers and the one difference was he went Christopher Bell over Busch.

I know a lot of people are programmed to look for low-owned plays to be “different” but in NASCAR you NEED a decent amount of chalk and find those 1 or 2 drivers that can be the difference. With a limited player pool each week you should focus on picking out the drivers who have the best shot at getting the highest point totals regardless of ownership. After that, you find 1-2 drivers who have high upside but are also a little risky. You cannot cash, ok not necessarily cannot, but it is highly unlikely that you’ll cash if you build a team full of low-owned plays. They are projected with low ownership for a reason, they aren’t in a good spot. I hope this helps some when it comes to building lineups and picking out your contests this weekend, now speaking of that, let’s get to it!!

NASCAR DFS: Dominators

Kyle Larson ($12,000)

Starting Position: 6th

Projected ownership: 66%

Who saw this coming? Well, if you didn’t you should have. Larson dominated the spring race here in Atlanta leading 269 of 325 laps but ended up second after Ryan Blaney ($10,500) passed him late in the race. Larson is also dominant at high tire wear tracks this season where he has the best overall speed ranking and a series-best 2.7 average finish. I believe that the path to victory lane goes through Larson on Sunday. Larson’s projected ownership is high, but when he is potentially going to be the highest-scoring driver on the slate you need to ignore that and lock him in.

William Byron ($10,000)

Starting Position: 19th

Projected Ownership: 28%

You’re going to see a trend in this tier and it continues with William Byron. The Hendrick Motorsports cars are the best in the series at 1.5-mile tracks, especially the high tire wear tracks like Atlanta. Byron has finished in the top 10 in every race at these tracks this season with an average finish of 6th. Byron also is second only to Larson when it comes to overall speed at 1.5-mile tracks in 2021. At high tire wear tracks, Byron’s average finish actually improves to 4.3. I know the price is high, but combining Larson and Byron is how I want to start my build today.

Alex Bowman ($9,400)

Starting Position: 17th

Projected Ownership: 18%

Here is the last in the trend I mentioned earlier, another HMS Chevy, this time we have Alex Bowman. I think he is too cheap today and he is projected for sub 20% ownership, yes, please! Bowman is my Kurt Busch from last week, he will be under-owned but has immense potential to have a great fantasy day and pairs well with some of the high owned plays. Bowman has the potential to be a top 5 car today based on his earlier run at Atlanta this season. In the spring, Bowman finished 3rd, he also had the 3rd best average running position (4.9) and was 5th late in a run which is key because that shows he can take care of his tires here.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500)

Starting Position: 15th

Projected Ownership: 20%

Blaney is another car who runs really well at Atlanta. Earlier this season Blaney stole the victory from Larson and in 2020 he ended up 4th. This season Blaney had an average running position of 2.7 (2nd), the second-best total speed ranking behind Larson, and was the best car late in a run. Blaney definitely has top 10 potential, and I don’t see why he can’t sweep Atlanta this season.

Kevin Harvick ($10,900)

Starting Position: 21st

Projected Ownership: 22%

Harvick is priced up this week, and with good reason. Atlanta is one of Harvick’s best tracks throughout his career and he should be a contender for the win here on Sunday. Harvick comes into this race riding an eight-race top 10 streak at ovals this season. Since April 25th (Talladega), Harvick’s lowest finish (outside of road courses) is 10th at Charlotte and he has four top 5’s in that span as well. At high tire wear tracks this season, Harvick has finished in the top 10 in all three and has an average finish of 7th.

Other Options:

I really like all three of Chase Elliott ($9,800 – P1), Kyle Busch ($10,300 – P2), and Denny Hamlin ($9,600 – P3), but their upside is capped today. I think all three have the potential to do really well here but I have to take the place differential upside and dominance (Larson) in the drivers I mentioned above over them. I will not talk anyone off these three on Sunday, but the drivers above have more upside in my opinion.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Similar to last week I am focused on using 3 dominator builds so my lineups do not have much exposure to the mid-tier. I will still give you some of the plays I do plan on using in the few 2 dominator builds I have.

Daniel Suarez ($7,70)

Starting Position: 27th

Projected Ownership: 31%

Suarez had some bad luck last week which puts him starting towards the back this week. Yes, Suarez will be higher owned this week because of this, but as I talked about in the open it’s ok to have some high ownership drivers with huge point upside. At the last two 1.5-mile tracks the Cup Series has been to Suarez has finished top 15 at both and he should be a contender for another top 15 on Sunday. Suarez is the perfect play in my eyes for two high-priced dominator builds (Larson with Harvick or Blaney) because he cheap enough to allow you to not have to go real low in the value bin which gives you higher point potential.

Kurt Busch ($8,400)

Starting Position: 8th

Projected Ownership: 10%

Busch has been running great recently after a really bad start to his season. In the last five races, Busch has finished 8th or better in four of them, including last week at Road America. Busch is another driver I think pairs well with two dominator builds and is that low-owned play that will set you apart from the field.

Austin Dillon ($7,900)

Starting Position: 13th

Projected Ownership: 17%

We saw Dillon jump in the #1 car for injured Michael Annett yesterday and have a strong showing. Overall, Dillon has been great at 1.5-mile tracks this season with three top 10’s, an average finish of 9.2 and never finishing below 12th. In the spring race here, Dillon started exactly where he is today, 13th, and finished 6th. I expect Dillon to be a top 10 car on Sunday again and if luck is on his side, maybe he can steal a top 5.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($8,800 – P10), Chris Buescher ($8,600 – P18), Ryan Preece ($7,400 – P34)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

1. Ryan Newman ($6,100) – P29/PO 49%: Newman will carry ownership but there is so much upside here for so little salary you have to just bite the bullett here and take the consistency of Newman on Sunday.
2. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,600) – P16/PO 32%: Stenhouse has finished 13th or better in 4 of his last 6 in Atlanta and has an average finish of 13.7 here during that 6 race span.
3. Michael McDowell ($5,900) – P25/PO 35%: If you don’t want to use Newman, then McDowell is your pivot. He is still going to be relatively higher-owned but not nearly as high as Newman. McDowell also carries similar upside to the 6 car.
4. Bubba Wallace ($6,300) – P24/PO 19%: Here is your pivot off of Stenhouse if you don’t trust him starting so high. I actually trust Ricky a little more than Bubba right now, but Wallace and the 23 car has been improving and a top 20 is definitely expected this week
5. Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) – P32/PO 10%: Nobody likes playng Alfredo, hell I don’t really like it, but for this price and where he starts he is a pretty solid play today. I prefer you find a way to fit the top 4 drivers in over him, but if you need the savings Alfredo is your man
6. Corey Lajoie ($5,700) – P26/PO 16%: Lajoie would be ahead of Alfredo but for the 6 place starting difference. Lajoie will be in the mix for a top 20, but he could also finish with a top 30 like he did in the spring here
7. Erik Jones ($6,900) – P22/PO 14%: Jones is a good driver at Atlanta but will need a big day for him to make value on Sunday. I think you can go here if you have the salary and want to be different in 2 dominator builds.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!