rmferenc@gmail.com 
Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series for the 2021 season! If you’ve been with us before then you know the drill, but if you are new the WinDaily Sports or to my NASCAR content, welcome! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.
Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial as well to make sure you are ready and have an understanding of how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site that has contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and is the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play.
This week the Cup Series heads down to Georgia, more specifically Atlanta, for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 on Sunday. Last season’s winner Kevin Harvick ($11,000) is once again one of the favorites to win this race, but we need to decide if we want to pay up for Harvick at what could be lowered ownership.
Atlanta is another high tire wear course, similar to Homestead but maybe with more tire wear. We will want to look at drivers who faired well in that race earlier this season as well as drivers who have had success here in the past. When it comes to the drivers I want to target this week I want to look for drivers who have been successful here in the past, have a good history at other high tire wear tracks (Homestead, Darlington, Auto Club), and drivers who have been good of late. Pricing is soft on the top tier this week and the value tier is not great so I will look to fit 3 dominators into my lineups with 324 laps of dominator points available.
This week, and going forward, I am going to break down the dominator and mid-tier in order of how I rank the drivers in this tier as opposed to in salary order
NASCAR DFS: Dominators
Kyle Larson ($10,400)
Starting Position: 6th
Larson is one of the favorites on Sunday as he should be based on the 2021 season he is having in the #5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy. In 2019, Larson’s last race at Atlanta, he was the most dominant car and should have won if not for a late-race incident that saw him finish 12th. In that race (in lesser equipment), Larson led a race-high 142 laps, had 54 fastest laps (most in the race), and had an average running position of 6.1. Larson also has the 2nd fastest speed rating in 2021, and nobody has a better speed ranking at 1.5 ovals this season than Larson. Needless to say, there is a very good chance Larson dominates this race on Sunday again but finishes it off in victory lane.
Kevin Harvick ($11,000)
Starting Position: 7th
Like I mentioned in the open, Harvick is the highest-priced driver on DK this weekend, but is his upside too limited to make value at that price? I believe he can be based on what he has done here in the past. Over the last 7 races in Atlanta, Harvick has led over 100 laps in 6 of those 7 races. Also, Harvick has won two of the last three Atlanta races, and this season he has the 5th best speed ranking.
Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600)
Starting Position: 2nd
Truex is one of the only drivers in this field who was able to run some “practice laps” on Saturday in the Xfinity race. On Saturday, Truex dominated the Xfinity race but a late-race caution kept him from earning his first Atlanta victory in a top-tier NASCAR series. Last season in the Cup race, Truex led 65 laps, had an average running position of 2.5, and won the first two stages while finishing 3rd. With Truex getting seat time on the track in Atlanta I really think that could be an advantage for him and potentially lead us to our first two-time winner this season.
Brad Keselowski ($10,200)
Starting Position: 4th
First and foremost let me get this out of the way, Keselowski will be without his crew chief on Sunday but I don’t think that is an issue and won’t factor into be rostering Keselowski. In the last four Atlanta races, Keselowski has won twice, oh, and in the other two races, he finished second. Keselowski has been good on similar tracks as well with six straight top 9 finishes on high tire wear tracks. and an average finish of 5.1.
Denny Hamlin ($10,000)
Starting Position: 1st
Hamlin has been the picture of consistency in 2021 when it comes to speed rankings. Nobody has been faster this season and Hamlin could have a dominant day on Sunday starting P1. Every weekend the #11 is fast, this team just knows how to build fast cars. It’s always risky playing the pole sitter, but with Hamlin on the pole, there is a pretty good chance he can lead leaps as well as hang around the top 5 all day.
- Chase Elliott ($9,800) – P5: Elliot is relatively cheap this week but with good reason. Elliott hasn’t been great on 1.5 ovals this season, but it’s Elliott so he is always a contender
- Joey Logano ($9,400) – P3: Logano has had some success here, but I don’t love the upside here for Logano. I won’t talk you off him because he can dominate, but I don’t think I’ll have exposure.
- Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – P10: Blaney and the #12 team seem to be figuring it out now and Blaney could be a factor on Sunday. He has the best PD upside in this group.
- William Byron ($9,000) – P9: Byron had a fast car in 2020 here, but hit the wall after the competition caution. That incident put him four laps down and he never recovered. He started 20th and was heading into the top 10 when the incident happened
Top Tier Place Differential Play: Kyle Busch ($10,700) – P19
Busch finished 2nd here last year and has finished top 7 in six of the last eight high tire wear tracks. Last season in six races at high tire wear tracks Busch had a 7.5 average finish which was 3rd best in the series.
NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier
Kurt Busch ($8,300)
Starting Position: 11th
Busch is a former three-time winner of this race and had to fight through adversity but had a good day. After starting at the rear, Busch then had to make a pass-through penalty which set him a lap down right away, but he fought back and came home 6th. In that race last year, Busch was 6th fastest late in a run and had the 9th best total speed ranking. Busch is my favorite mid-tier play today, but the next driver is a very close second.
Ryan Newman ($7,100)
Starting Position: 28th
Newman presents some amazing value at his price this weekend starting from P28. When you have a veteran like Newman starting this far back with great history at high tire wear tracks he becomes a near must play. Newman finished 7th at Homestead earlier this season and finished last season with a 14.5 average finish at these types of tracks. I really love Newman as a great inexpensive place differential play.
Alex Bowman ($8,800)
Starting Position: 14th
Bowman has never finished better than 12th here (2020) but his two career wins have come at high tire wear tracks. In seven high tire wear tracks in 20-21, Bowman has the third-best speed ranking but has a 9.4 average finish. This is the kind of stuff I talk about that average finish can be misleading, clearly, Bowman is fast at these tracks but just had some misfortune that ruined his races.
Austin Dillon ($7,300)
Starting Position: 13th
Dillon is one of the best of the bottom-priced mid-tier drivers on Sunday and a top 10 is definitely in the cards. Last year Dillon wasn’t great but managed an 11th place finish, but this season the speed had been there for the 3 team. I think Dillon could have himself a top 10 finish on Sunday.
Other Options: Christopher Bell ($7,800), Matt DiBenedetto ($8,100 – PD play starting P20), Aric Almirola ($8,000), Tyler Reddick ($8,400 – PD play starting P29),Bubba Wallace ($7,400)
NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings
- Ricky Stenhouse ($6,300) – P12: Stenhouse has been nothing short of great in 2021. We don’t expect much from him and he has overperformed. Stenhouse has not finished lower than 18th this season and in his last three races lower than 13.
- Anthony Alfredo ($5,500) P32: Alfredo has low 20’s upside which gives him some pretty good PD for his price
- Chase Briscoe ($6,800) – P24: Outside of the Daytona RC, Briscoe has finished between 18th-22nd place. I don’t love the price for that limited value but he will be low owned and maybe this is the race he breaks out
- Chris Buescher ($6,000) P17: Buescher has top 15 upside, but is more likely to finish low 20’s. The value tier is not great this week, so we need to make do with what we have.
- Ross Chastain ($6,600) P21: Chastain has been a consistent driver for us this season and I see no reason it doesn’t continue this week.
- Ryan Preece ($5,800) P23: Preece is another driver off to a surprising start. At his price and where he starts, unless he wrecks early, he can’t really hurt you
- Daniel Suarez ($6,500) P25: After Daytona, Suarez’s average finish is 19.5. I am not a fan of his price either, but that price may keep his ownership down this week
- Josh Bilicki ($4,800) P37: If you really need a punt play to make your build work, Bilicki is the guy. I don’t love the play and I don’t plan on playing him, but I know some of you love your cheap under $5K drivers
Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!
