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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.7.19 SEA at NYY




SEA Away vs RHP L14

  • 144 PA
  • .209/.257/.433 Triple Slash
  • 27.1 K%
  • .290 wOBA
  • 81 wRC+
  • 34.4% Hard Hit Rate
  • 24.0% Weak Contact Rate

Seattle is experiencing a major downtick on offense, producing the eighth-worst team wOBA over the last 14 games (.290). A bit of the early shine has come off lately and I think we have a chance to capitalize on that downward trend.

NYY vs LHP (Last 14 Games)

  • 81 PA
  • .362/.436/.536 Triple Slash
  • .972 OPS
  • .417 wOBA
  • 159 wRC+
  • 40.4% Hard Hit Rate


Marco Gonzalez (Three Away Starts)

Marco’s superficial numbers don’t look terrible at first glance with a 3.79 ERA, but the list of desirable stats ends there. Both his FIP & xFIP are nearly a full run higher than his ERA, with his WHIP sitting at 1.37. He’s also allowing an .859 OPS, .355 wOBAA and a staggering 45% Hard Hit Rate on the road. The Xstats (below) are all below average, most notably, being in the bottom third in exit velocity allowed.

(Courtesy of Baseball Savant)

Masahiro Tanaka (Four Home Starts)

  • 23.1 IP
  • 25 K : 6 BB
  • 3.09 ERA / 2.88 FIP / .3.21 xFIP
  • 35.9% Hard Hit Rate

Tanaka’s WHIP is a little high (1.33) but a good amount is attributed to getting jumped on by the White Sox two weeks ago (an excellent RHP hitting team). Although the potential for getting hit is there, Tanaka has done his best pitching in the Bronx & and I think he’s too crafty for a young & aggressive Mariner lineup.


Over the last seven games, Seattle has the 19th best ERA (4.50), 20th best FIP (4.44) & no true lockdown threat in the pen. The Yankees bullpen is back performing as billed; fifth in ERA (2.11), second in WHIP (0.80) & top 10 in FIP, xFIP & SIERA over the last seven games.

If this game is close late, the Yankees should have a clear edge because of their bullpen


Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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