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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.29.19 STL at PHI

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OFFENSE

STL vs RHP, (Last 7 Days)

  • 216 PA
  • .194/.291/.317 Triple Slash
  • .608 OPS
  • .124 ISO
  • .272 wOBA
  • 67 wRC+

PHI Home vs LHP, (Last 30 Days)

  • 119 PA
  • .311/.373/.462 Triple Slash
  • .836 OPS
  • .151 ISO
  • .358 wOBA
  • 124 wRC+
  • 43.2% Hard Hit Rate
  • 9.2% BB Rate

STARTING PITCHING

Genesis Cabrera AAA, 2018 (7 Games Started)

  • 39.2 IP
  • 17 BB
  • 10.4% BB Rate
  • 6.35 ERA / 6.85 FIP / 6.35 xFIP
  • 1.56 WHIP
  • 2.5 HR/9

Aaron Nola Home, 2019 (Last 4 Starts)

  • 21.1 IP
  • 25 K : 9 BB
  • 25.8 K%
  • 2.53 ERA / 2.65 FIP / 3.83 xFIP
  • .310/.375/.448 Triple Slash Allowed, BUT
  • .419 BABIP
  • 34.9% Hard Hit Rate

BULLPENS LAST 7 DAYS

TeamAVGWHIPERAFIPxFIPSIERA
Cardinals0.2321.373.793.383.604.22
Phillies0.2171.214.435.43.873.55

At a glance the Phils do have the bullpen edge, but their struggles are well documented and I’m simply not comfortable with my money behind anyone no named Aaron Nola.

THE PLAY: PHI F5 ML

Coming in today the Phillies have the edge on both sides of the ball. Nola seems to be returning to form after a very rough start to the year. He pitches his best ball at home and the Cardinals are struggling at the plate, 27th in team wOBA over the last seven days (.286). I refuse to bet on the Philadelphia bullpen, so I’m shortening this bet to five innings.

Let’s get it.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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