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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.25.19 TB at CLE




TB vs RHP, (Last 7 Days)

  • 136 PA
  • .264/.324/.544 Triple Slash
  • .868 OPS
  • .280 ISO
  • .363 wOBA
  • 131 wRC+

CLE Home, (Last 6 Days)

  • 184 PA
  • .190/.301/.342 Triple Slash
  • .642 OPS
  • .152 ISO
  • .285 wOBA
  • 68 wRC+
  • 35.3% Hard Hit Rate


Charlie Morton Road, 2019 (6 Games Started)

  • 32.1 IP
  • 36 K
  • 1.95 ERA / 3.65 FIP / 3.80 xFIP
  • 1.11 WHIP
  • .179/.284/.333 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .273 wOBAA
  • 33.3% Hard Hit Rate
  • 4.6% Barrel Rate
  • Statcast Darling (below)
Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Carlos Carrasco, 2019 (10 Starts)

  • 52.1 IP
  • 4.30 ERA
  • 1.22 WHIP
  • .268/.301/.502 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .334 wOBAA
  • 39.0% Hard Hit Rate
  • 14.3% Barrel Rate
  • Some very poor EV data (below)

Courtesy of Baseball Savant


The Indian bullpen has been one of the strongest in the majors, and is something we want to avoid. They have top five stats across the board in ERA, WHIP, FIP, xFIP & SIERA over the last seven days. Conversely, the Rays are found in the bottom seven or worse and we saw this play out last night. Thanks, but no thanks on the nine inning play.

THE PLAY: TB F5 RL +0.5 (Weighted)

The bullpen edge plus home field advantage has me shortening this contest. You’ll notice again today I’m going with a split play. I do have the Rays ahead after five innings but whenever I can get my F5 bet in with the possibility of cashing in the event of a tie, I make sure to get most of my exposure to that; Even at reduced odds. Majority of my cash will be on the RL, with a percentage on the ML in case this plays out ideally.

Let’s get it.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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