Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/24
I hope we’re all ready for Sonny Gray Chalk Night because I’d be surprised if he’s not the heaviest rostered SP2 choice on DK. We have a ton of Aces at our disposal and that’s going to open up some intriguing builds of double Aces if you prefer. Let’s dig into the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 5/24 to find out which Aces we like and why Gray is likely chalky!
Aces
Corbin Burnes
The strikeouts have been down for Burnes in the past three starts with a total of just 19 across 19 IP but I wouldn’t point to anything alarming in the profile. The xFIP is still 2.62 compared to a 2.26 ERA and the K rate is 31.5%, backed up by a 17.9% swinging-strike rate. That leads the league (although the man in third place is coming up shortly) and his cutter/curve combo is still doing magical things. They have combined for 43 strikeouts, are under a .260 wOBA, and both have at least a 34.9% whiff rate. San Diego is 25th against the cutter, a nice boost for Burnes and even against the curve, the Padres only rank 16th. The K rate for the offense is moderate at 22.8% but the wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and the ISO are all in the bottom 10 for San Diego. This hasn’t been a scary offense against righty pitching and even with potentially five lefties in the lineup, I can’t muster much concern for Burnes. He is worse against that side of the plate but that’s a relative term with a 2.51 xFIP, 29.9% K rate, and a .279 wOBA. I would suspect he’ll be the bedrock of cash pitching tonight.
Dylan Cease
Do folks realize Cease currently leads the majors in strikeouts? I feel like he’s gotten very little buzz so far this year but he’s been excellent with 67 strikeouts total and he’s only been under eight once in eight starts so far. Cease also leads the league in K rate at 36.8% and the xFIP is only 2.59 along with a 2.16 FIP so his 3.09 ERA is arguably a touch higher than it should be. His 16.1% swinging-strike rate is also in the top four so there is nothing to pick at here as far as strikeout upside, which is the most important thing in pitching. His splits as far as wOBA is about dead even although we want as many righties as possible with a 2.04 xFIP and 40.2% K rate against that side of the plate. The four-seam has 25 strikeouts and only a .261 wOBA while the slider and curve are both over a 38.5% whiff rate, with the slider contributing another 25 strikeouts. That is the main pitch against the right side and a big Eason for the K rate, hence the more righties the better. A shot at 20 combined strikeouts between Cease and Burnes is not out of the question at all.
Kevin Gausman
He’s coming off his worst start of the season but it had to happen at some point and there’s nothing that gives me any real long-term concern. The FIP/xFIP combo is still 1.26 and 2.30 so that supports his 2.52 ERA and he’s still sporting a ridiculous 0.18 HR/9 along with a 1.5% walk rate. The K rate is 28.9% and he’s the man who is third in swinging-strike rate at 17.1%. The Cardinals are a good/bad matchup because they don’t generally strike out very much but they tend to have a lot of righties and Gausman has been death to the right side of the plate. The K rate is over 37%, the FIP is 0.21, and one of these days the .462 BABIP is going to start dropping. His slider and splitter are the two secondary pitches and they are both over a 43% whiff rate and it’s interesting to see with all the attention his splitter gets that the slider has a higher whiff rate at 52.4%. The splitter is certainly a star pitch with 39 strikeouts and it is still the third-highest ranked pitch on the FanGraphs rating system. Don’t let one start scare you off of going right back to Gausman.
Zac Gallen
He is fourth in this range for me because in general, I will always be nervous when a pitcher has an ERA of 1.14 and the xFIP is 3.51. At the same time, Gallen has a K rate of over 22% against each side of the plate and the Royals offense is showing some changes over the past 14 days. The K rate has jumped up to nearly 25%, a large departure from their season so far and the FIP is under 2.75 against each side for Gallen as well. He’s sitting on his four-seam about 50% of the time and the Royals are 27th against that pitch, something we love to see. All of his other offerings are under 18% but the change and curve are second and third while both are right around a 30% whiff rate. Gallen is also doing a strong job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 48% rate and one of the biggest reasons for his success is the 17.3% hard-hit rate. I do like the other three better but it will not shock me at all if Gallen is right there with them in DK points.
Honorable Mention
I reserve the right to change this based on the lineup because the Giants are down a few important players, but Chris Bassitt would have me a little nervous if he draws a lot of lefties. It’s not like he’s utterly useless against them but the K rate drops to 21.7% and the Giants are barely over 21% as a team in K rate. His xFIP is over .400 against that side as well so we’re going to need to see what he’s facing and if SF doesn’t give us one before lock, you could always play Gallen but leave $300 to get up to Bassitt after the 7:00 p.m. lock.
Max Fried is also in the running here but draws another tough matchup with Philly, who is top three in OPS and ISO while also being no lower than ninth in any other offensive category. It’s much harder to stump for him or Walker Buehler than these other pitchers because, on paper, the K rates just don’t match up with the heavy hitters in this tier.
Mid-Range
Framber Valdez
If you remember this past Friday, we talked about Tarik Skubal facing the Cleveland offense and mentioned that this unit is far worse against lefties than I believe the perception is. The Guardians are 27th in wRC+, 26th in OBP, 29th in OPS, 28th in wOBA, and 27th in ISO against southpaws. Sure, they don’t strike out at 21.3% but Valdez is also barely over $8,000 and has an insanely high ground ball rate of 65.7%, the highest among qualified starters by 7.7%. He doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact at 25.2% so his 19.7% K rate is livable. Righties only generate a .272 wOBA against him and his sinker is just a worm killer. It has a -7 degree launch angle on average and even with a .311 wOBA, hitters aren’t doing a lot of damage against it because of the 23 hits allowed, 21 are singles. He can have starts where he gets BABIP’d to death but Cleveland doesn’t exactly check those boxes. He does have a pretty good curve as well when he throws it, with a 35.8% whiff rate and 20 strikeouts. The Guardians are only 22nd against that pitch this year so Valdez looks like a strong mid-range option tonight.
Check out our MLB Projection Model to see who is the best value pitcher of the slate on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention
Honestly, I don’t have a lot of love for the mid-range tonight because it’s not terribly hard to get up to Gallen or Gausman and it’s hard to construct scenarios where the ceilings are as high as those hitters. Maybe Jordan Montgomery will be popular but I tend to doubt it with Gray sitting at a cheaper salary.
Punt Range
Sonny Gray
He may only be at 20.2 IP so far this season but Gray has been way better than this salary would indicate with a 28.7% K rate, 3.19 xFIP, and 30.7% CSW. The walk rate is a little high at over 10% but it’s also not a killer and he’s peppering the zone with first strikes at 60.9%, which would be the highest rate since 2017. When he’s not walking or striking out hitters, the ground ball rate is 50.9% and Detroit is seventh in ground ball rate at 44.8%, so that’s a strong match. They also strike out more than 24% of the time and are either 29th or 30th in ISO, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP against righty hitting. Gray is throwing a plethora of pitches so far this season with no pitch being over his sinker at 32.2%. That pitch also has 18 of his strikeouts already and only two hitters for Detroit have a wOB over .325 against the pitch this season. I will be stunned if it’s not the Burnes/Gray duo for cash games tonight.
Blake Snell
I’ve had my run-ins with Mr. Snell in the past but if Gray is mega-chalk, Snell could be a really intriguing pivot for GPP because his ceiling is also not accurately reflected in this salary. He’s only had the one start this year because he was scratched minutes before his scheduled first start and he threw 84 pitches, so 90+ should be a breeze. The Brewers could be without Hunter Renfroe, who left last night’s game with a hammy issue so that’s a little bit of a plus for Snell. He’s had four straight seasons with a K rate over 30.5% and there’s not a ton of reasons to think that trend stops this year, as he whiffed five hitters in the first start. Milwaukee is mostly an average offense against lefties and whiffs 22.8% of the time, so this is mostly a pedigree play and potentially a big pivot.
Stacks
Astros
D-Backs
Mariners
Twins
Braves
White Sox
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