Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/3
Everywhere you look tonight, there is an ace on the mound! That is a bit of an exaggeration but we have a ton of elite arms to pick from tonight and there are some just outside that elite category that is priced like average pitchers. Let’s get right to it with a 12-game slate tonight in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/3!
Aces
Gerrit Cole
This is one of the best spots Cole could ask for based on this season since he has a 30.8% K rate, a 15.6% swinging-strike rate, and the Tigers strike out 24.2% of the time. It has been worse in the past 14 days and the Tigers also have the highest chase rate (31.8%) and they have the fifth-highest whiff rate. His xFIP is still just 2.75 and the HR/9 is down to 0.94, the lowest since 2018. Both sides of the plate whiff at least 27.8% of the time and the main pitch for Cole is the four-seam, one that has 39 of 72 strikeouts. His whiff rate on that pitch has gone up from 27.6% last year to 35% this season and Detroit is 27th when facing a fastball. There is simply nothing in the profile that suggests anything but a smash spot for Cole.
Shane McClanahan
I’m generally very hesitant to play a lefty pitcher against the White Sox lineup BUT Shane O’Mac is so good that he will be in some GPP lineups. I’m not stumping for him in cash games with Cole right there but McClanahan leads the league in K rate at 36.3% and he’s second in swinging-strike rate at 17%. On top of that, he leads the league in xFIP at .183 and the next closest player is Kevin Gausman at 2.46, so it’s a significant gap. Chicago is still top five in all of our offensive categories when they face a lefty, including OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wC+. Every pitch for him that isn’t the four-seam continues to dominate as well with wOBA’s under .170 for his curve/changeup mix, they both have a whiff rate of at least 35.9% and they have 52 strikeouts. His splits show no major cracks in the armor so I’m hoping he comes in a little less popular so we can take our shots in GPP.
Corbin Burnes
It’s not going to be very often that Burnes is third on the list (and he’s second for cash consideration ahead of McClanahan) and he got back in the saddle in the last start. He whiffed 11 Cardinals and generated a 0.43 FIP in that start. His cutter and curve make up about 75% of his arsenal and San Diego is 27th when facing the cutter and 24th when facing the curve. Burnes has 53 strikeouts with those two pitches and the curve has a 48% whiff rate and the splits are mostly even for Burnes. The left side has a 2.45 xFIP and 32.7% for the K rate while the righties are at 2.82 and 31.2%, respectively. Neither side has a wOBA over .236 and Burnes is a lights-out pick once again. We talked yesterday about how the Padres lineup has been a big disappointment this year and is in the bottom 10 of our offensive categories. I’m really going to be interested to see what the field does with the top of the salary grid tonight.
Shane Bieber
I’m the shakiest on Bieber but the Orioles’ offense can be had, although they are ranking better than you may think overall. They are 14th in wOBA, 12th in wRC+, 16th in OBP, 11th in ISO, and 12th in OPS so this isn’t exactly a pushover. However, outside of the Toronto start, he’s starting to find his footing more with at least 18 DK in the other four starts. I can hear it now that 18 Dk won’t cut it tonight and that’s 100% correct but he’s also scored 25 and 27 in the past two starts, albeit against Detroit. Perhaps my largest fear is he’s using the slider 40.5% of the time and has a 36.8% whiff rate with it but the O’s are fifth when facing sliders this year. We also need the lineup because against lefties, Bieber is excellent with a .236 wOBA, a 1.67 FIP, and a 2.87 xFIP with a 27.3% K rate. The metrics all plummet when facing righties for a 20.3% K rate and 4.04 FIP. I kind of have a feeling that he might be the cash play, but I tend to also believe that I’d be underweight in GPP settings.
Honorable Mention
Joe Musgrove has been excellent for the Padres so far this season but I’ll have a mental block with paying $500 more for him when Burnes is right there. Musgrove is sporting a 25.3% K rate, a 3.13 xFIP, and a 2.71 FIP in addition to the Brewers striking out at a top 10 rate when facing righty pitching. If you decided to go there, I can’t mount a strong argument but I will have other priorities tonight.
Mid-Range
Logan Gilbert
Now we get into the range where I’m not exactly sure what DK was thinking, because there are at least two pitchers that are vastly mispriced here. Gilbert leads the charge and he’s coming off a 26.8 DK punt start, which earned him a salary decrease of $800. I’ve been a little hesitant with him when he was priced near $10,000 in part because the xFIP is 3.57 compared with a 2.29 ERA and the hard-hit rate is 36.1% but he also has a K rate of 25.4%. Texas is 11th in K rate this season when facing a righty and they are also no higher than 23rd in our offensive categories. This is a relatively soft matchup for Gilbert and my largest complaint with him is how little he throws his changeup. This pitch has a 33.3% whiff rate, a .064 wOBA, and has allowed just one single but he throws it just 8.7% of the time. That pitch is part of the reason he’s been lights out when facing lefties because out of the 84 changes he’s thrown, 82 have been against the left side. They only have a 2.04 FIP, a 34% K rate, and a .178 wOBA and Texas could throw out 5-6 lefties tonight. Please let that be the case!
Nathan Eovaldi
Eovaldi has scored 60 points in his last two starts combined and he’s facing Oakland but for some reason, he’s only $8,000. I’d be pretty surprised if he’s not chalk today but the salary just doesn’t match what Eovaldi is capable of. His curve and splitter are a little under 40% of his arsenal and they both have a whiff rate of over 32% and they have combined for 35 strikeouts while the four-seam is at 18 strikeouts, although a .322 wOBA. Oakland has the seventh-highest K rate when facing a righty and they are 28th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 30th in wRC+. The xFIP against both sides is under 3.30 and he whiffs the left side at 30.2%. Aside from a horrific start against the Astros and a poor one against the White Sox, Eovaldi has been fairly reliable this season with just a 3.14 xFIP compared to his 3.77 ERA and he generates a ground ball 45.5% of the time.
Punt Range
Merrill Kelly
I think we all knew that Kelly wasn’t going to score 25+ DK points very often this season but the salary has dropped too far because he’s had poor results lately. Two starts out of four coming against the Dodgers will tend to do that to any pitcher and now he has a nice, soft landing spot in facing Pittsburgh. Just don’t tell the Dodgers pitching staff that because they couldn’t figure it out but I digress. Kelly’s K rate is right about 20% and the xFIP’s are under 4.20 for either side of the plate, not to mention the HR/9 doesn’t climb over 0.81. In the last two weeks, Pittsburgh has been striking out 25.1% of the time when facing a righty and they are still just 21st in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in that span. Kelly doesn’t throw a pitch more than his four-seam at 29.3% and his hard-hit rate is only 28.6%. For under $7,000, he’s worth using as an SP2 to fit an extra hitter or two into the lineup.
Honorable Mention
I’ll likely just stick with Kelly, but it is possible for me to look at Yusei Kikuchi as well. The Twins have been an average lineup when facing a lefty for the past month as opposed to top-five like their seasonal rankings would lead us to believe. Also, Kikuchi has just a 4.23 xFIP and a 24.4% K rate, so there is some potential here at such a cheap salary. I just want to see what the Minnesota lineup looks like before deciding.
Stacks
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Braves
Guardians
D-Backs (deep GPP)
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