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JT’s DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night Apex (May 30)

UFC MMA Fight Night is one of the few sporting events scheduled to continue this weekend amid the global coronavirus outbreak. The 11-bout event expected to start at 6 p.m. ET at the APEX Arena, Las Vegas, in an empty arena due to the pandemic sweeping the world. Only necessary individuals will be allowed in the building. This fight card is highlighted by the main event of Tyron Woodley and Gilbert Burns. This article is my top three universal targets of Draftkings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft. I will be using in most of my Daily Fantasy lineups and my top money line bets. The fight by fight breakdown can be found in our DISCORD chat.

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#1 TARGET: DANIEL RODRIGUEZ (11-1) (-335) (DK 7500) (FD $13) (SD 1.3X) VS. GABE GREEN (0-0) (+255) (DK 6800) (FD $12) (SD 1.75X).

This fight has my number one overall fighter. Daniel Rodriguez was originally scheduled to be an underdog to powerhouse Kevin Holland until an unexpected shoulder injury halted Holland in his tracks, possibly due to a quick turnaround after a fight only two weeks ago. Instead of Holland, we now have Gabe Green, who stepped in at short notice to fill the void left behind. Unfortunately for Green, he’s staged to battle it out with Rodriguez, who has six stoppages out of his eleven wins as a pro. In Rodriguez’s most recent fight, he looked impressive, to say the least, and finalized his performance with a nasty 2nd round submission using a guillotine choke. If Daniel can move just as good in this fight vs. Green, I see no reason why he can not tack on another stoppage to his belt. The way for Rodriguez to take this fight quickly is by quick counter punches and slowing Green down. Green has the power to knock out the best of them in a single blow, but I do not see that happening here. I see this fight ending rather quickly with a first-round KO.

MY UFC PICK: DANIEL RODRIGUEZ. FIRST ROUND TKO.

#2 TARGET: BILLY QUARANTILLO (13-2) (-360) (DK 8600) (FD $18) (SD 1.25X) VS. SPIKE CARLYLE (9-1) (+110) (DK 7600) (FD $14) (SD 1.55X).

This fight very well might have the hidden gem needed to take down a GPP. In my opinion, the winning UFC DFS lineup will have to have one of these fighters. This bout between Quarantillo and Carlyle is the highest anticipated fight on the card for myself. This is going to be an all-out battle and slugfest. Spike and Billy both have the power to knock out each other with a single shot. There’s one big reason why I am going all-in on Billy Q, and that is his cardio. We all know that throwing a lot of punches and dodging a lot of shots takes A LOT of energy. In Carlyle’s career, he has had plenty of finishes, but almost every time, it looks like he’s starting to slow down and get flat-footed. If he starts to slow at any point, Billy will pick up on that and exploit it. Quarantillo is a cardio machine. His fighting style is continuously moving forward, looking for openings, and continuous strikes on his opponents. I can easily see Billy weathering the storm of Carlyle until he tires himself out, sneaking in a few hard shots, and finishing him in the third round.

MY UFC PICK: BILLY QUARANTILLO. THIRD ROUND TKO.

#3 TARGET: JAMAHAL HILL (7-0) (-130) (DK 8400) (FD $17) (SD 1.3X) VS. KLIDSON ABREU (15-4) (EVEN) (DK 7800) (FD $15) (SD 1.5X).

Hill is on a nice heater. He has seven wins and no losses as a pro fighter. In Hill’s UFC debut fight, he was taken down six times, which is a lot for a single fight. The big thing im leaning on here is how many strikes Hill can land. In his fight vs. Stosic, he dismantled him, landing 101 significant strikes on his way to a very nice decision win. Jamahal has pretty good blocking and can potentially hold off Abreu’s takedown attempts due to the fact that Abreu is not as fast as Stosic. If Hill can pinpoint his strikes during the takedown and kick attempts of Abreu, he should have no problem taking all three rounds, if not end it with a late third-round stoppage.

MY UFC PICK: JAMAHAL HILL DEC OR LATE THIRD ROUND TKO.

HONORABLE MENTION:

ROOSEVELT ROBERTS (9-1) (-360) (DK 9200) (FD $21) (SD 1.05X)

TYRON WOODLEY (19-4) (-175) (DK 8800) (FD 22) (SD 1.25X)

KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN (13-3) (+115) (DK 7700) (FD $13) (SD 1.5X).

SUMMARY:

On tonight’s 11 bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 10 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup. I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core (fighters above) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them with the available salary. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!

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