Ivan Herrera 
Welcome to the International Break!
With any nations in action I will breakdown the best bets from around the world as well as touch on any DFS slate available for the international break. For Tuesday we are looking at early World Cup Qualifying matches in the AFC and UEFA Nation League action.
UEFA Nations League C Relegation Final: Lithuania vs. Gibraltar
Lithuania comes into the second leg of the League C Relegation Final ahead 1-0 after beating Gibraltar in Gibraltar. Neither side is a powerhouse in Europe as Lithuania comes in ranked 138th in FIFA’s rankings while Gibraltar comes in number 201. But it was made clear in the first game and by the FIFA rankings that Lithuania is clearly the better of the two teams. In the first leg in Gibraltar, Lithuania was unlucky to come out only up by one. They outshot the home side 26 to 6 and had an xG advantage of 2.19 to .34. Now hosting Gibraltar, I expect Lithuania to come out and dominate once again like they did in the first leg. Gibraltar is one of the worse nations on the road. Over their past 10 road games, they have scored only one goal while allowing 49, including 14 to France in a Euro Qualifying game. If this was almost any other European side, I would hammer the spread. But since Lithuania isn’t a high scoring team, going the safer route and taking them to score early and go into halftime with the lead and then ending an insurance goal during the second half.
Bet: Lithuania HT/FT Alt Bet: Lithuania win and over 1.5
World Cup Qualification AFC: Uzbekistan vs. Hong Kong
Uzbekistan has a chance to clinch their spot in the third round of AFC World Cup Qualifying. They host a Hong Kong side that they beat last Thursday 2-0 in Hong Kong. In that game, Uzbekistan outshot Hong Kong 18 to 5. Uzbekistan has a great percentage of goals per shot on target, 39.1%. This game should be one sided as Uzbekistan is clearly the better of the two teams and they will be at home. I prefer the over 2.5 team total over the -2.5 spread because there is always a chance of a fluke Hong Kong goal. Both are good bets but I have Uzbekistan scoring three so playing it safe with the TT.
Bet: Uzbekistan Team Total Over 2.5 Alt Bet: Uzbekistan -2.5
World Cup Qualification AFC: Iran vs. Turkmenistan
Similarly as the match above, Iran has a chance to secure their spot in the next round of qualifying with a win. Iran won in a one sided game against Turkmenistan when the hosted the latter this past Thursday. This Tuesday’s game will be played in Turkmenistan but I don’t see the outcome changing much. Turkmenistan has loss four of it’s last five at home (1W-4L) and has a GD of -7 in that span. Meanwhile Iran has won four of their last five on the road and drew their other. In that span they have a GD of +7.
Bet: Iran -2.5 Alt Bet: Iran -3 (I think at worse this pushes)
Rest of the Bets:
- Poland vs Wales BTTS Yes
- Ukraine vs Iceland BTTS Yes
- Greece ML
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