Adam Zibuda What is up everyone, happy Monday! Check out the FanDuel MLB 4/26 breakdown below.
As usual, I will be going over 3 pitchers and 3 teams that we should be looking to stack in our FanDuel lineups. We have a nine game main slate with no rain concerns to worry about, which is always nice. This slate locks at 7:05, so let’s get into the picks.
The Aces
A. In my Friday article I tried to differentiate a bit and swerve off of deGrom given that we had other options up top. On Monday I will not be doing that, because we have an ace in Corbin Burnes ($11,100) who is head and shoulders above the rest of the arms on the slate tonight.
While Burnes is pricey, he is the best pitcher on the night in nearly every single statistical category that you can find. His ERA and SIERA are extremely low, his strikeout rate is enormous, and he limits hard contact and fly balls. The Marlins have been better than many experts anticipated to start the season, but best of luck to them tonight in this matchup.
B. For the next two aces I will focus on lower-owned and lower-salary plays that will allow us to stack up some expensive bats in our lineups. Trevor Rogers ($9,600) is not someone who is necessarily a household name quite yet, but he has serious upside on Monday night.
Rogers is significantly cheaper than Burnes, yet still provides strikeout upside for our lineups, with a 32.3% strikeout rate. While Rogers is an average MLB pitcher when it comes to limiting runs, his K rate and swinging strike % more than make up for this weakness. His walk rate is also a concern, and the Brewers are a patient team at the plate, but I like Rogers in any lineup where we decide to fade Burnes.
C. Jose Berrios ($8,800) is my third ace for Monday night, as he takes the mound against the Cleveland Indians. I do not think that many expected the KC Royals to be leading this division by May, but here we are. The Twins and Indians have both gotten off to a rocky start, but I expect the Twins to gain a game on their division rivals Monday night.
Berrios is similar to Rogers in that he does an average job of limiting runs, but possesses strikeout upside, albeit lower upside. Berrios’ 28% strikeout rate is still strong, and we are getting a likely ownership discount to accompany the salary savings. This Indians team is just not the same this year after losing Lindor, so this is a spot where we can look to attack a weaker team with a pitcher that has some upside.
The Bases
A. One of my favorite teams to stack on Monday is the LA Angels. Hopefully the best hitter in baseball, Mike Trout, will be back for the game tonight, as he has missed the previous 3 days with an elbow injury. Even without Trout, that just makes this stack cheaper, as the rest of this Angels lineup should have no problem attacking Jordan Lyles early and often.
Lyles is one of the worst pitchers on the entire day at limiting damage on the baseball field. He owns a 6.38 ERA and 5.24 SIERA, an extremely low 15% strikeout rate, and he is not able to keep the ball on the ground. I expect to see the Angels tee of for quite a few homeruns tonight.
B. This team has burned me quite a bit to start this season, but I am going back to the well at what I expect will be low ownership. The NY Yankees have been nothing other than a gigantic disappointment to start this 2021 season. To think that a team with this type of offensive firepower and starting rotation is 9-12, tied for last in the division with the Baltimore Orioles, is really shocking.
However, the Yankees draw a great get-right spot against Matt Harvey and the Baltimore bullpen tonight. Harvey allows a 41% hard contact rate, which is the highest figure of any pitcher taking the mound today. Allowing that type of power against this Yankees lineup should result in baseballs leaving the park in a hurry, and I expect some fireworks from the Yankees in this spot.
C. A team that is trending in the opposite direction of the Yankees is the Seattle Mariners, who have been another surprising success story early on. The Mariners offense has looked uncharacteristically potent, and they get the pleasure of teeing off against Jose Urquidy tonight.
Urquidy is a pitcher that is due for some regression, as his SIERA of 4.99 is substantially higher than his ERA of 3.73. With an 18% strikeout rate and only a 31% groundball rate, this matchup turns the Mariners into another team that I will be looking to mix into my lineups. While Urquidy does not allow a huge amount of hard contact, Mitch Haniger will be putting that to the test on Monday night.
That is it for me today! Please also check out our projection model by clicking here. If you have any questions, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to lock, so feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat!
