Jake Faigus 
Welcome everyone to my CBB Lines and Locks article! I will be breaking down my Top Plays and Favorite Bets for most popular College Basketball slates. Thursday’s CBB slate is loaded with games. See which games I like the most and why. Let’s Get to the action and WIN!
USC vs #6 Arizona (-9): These two teams just met this past Saturday and USC shocked Arizona and everyone else with a 78-65 win at home to close out the regular season. USC looked great and has the athletes to compete with a team like Arizona, but when watching the game on Saturday there was a sense that this could be an easy letdown spot for the Wildcats because thanks to a Washington State loss on the same day, Arizona not only dominated UCLA, but also won the final Pac-12 regular season title, so a loss with a game just over 24 hours later is not that surprising considering the circumstances. The Wildcats have had some headscratching losses this year, but are still one of the best teams in the entire country. They are 4th in the NET and 6th in KenPom overall. They are one of the best offenses in the country, ranking third in college basketball in scoring offense at 89.5 points per game and they are 8th in adjusted offense on KenPom at 122.8. There are five different Wildcats that average over double digits with Caleb Love leading the way and playing like an All-American at 18.7 points per game. They also improved on defense, ranking 16th in adjusted defense at 95.7. USC has been the epitome of inconsistency this season. The metrics also reflect their inconsistent play with a ranking of 92 in the NET and 83 overall in KenPom. USC has not been able to stand out much on either offense or defense, scoring 74.7 points per game, and allowing 74.5 points per game. Only three Trojans average over double digits with Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier tied for the lead at 16.6 points per game. The Trojans have dealt with injuries and are finally healthy, but there are a lot of people jumping on USC in this game even though it seemed like a clear letdown spot for Arizona. The Trojans have the talent to keep pace with Arizona, but Tommy Lloyd’s coaching should win out and be the difference. This game will be close through the first half, but Arizona should pull away and win to advance in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Pick: Arizona -9
TCU vs #1 Houston (-11): Houston has been one of the most consistent teams in the country this season and there is a reason why they are currently ranked first overall in the AP Poll. TCU handed Houston one of their three losses this season in Fort Worth, 68-67 and this is a chance for revenge for the Cougars. First, the metrics love Houston with them being ranked first in both the NET and KenPom. They are the best defense in college basketball, allowing 56.9 points per game and they are first in adjusted defense on KenPom, at 88.2. They are also very efficient on offense, with the 12th adjusted offense in KenPom at 121. Three players for Houston average over double digits and L.J. Cryer leads the way at 15.7 points per game. Cryer and Jamal Shead also make up one of the best backcourts in the country. TCU has been a solid team this season and is in line to safely make the tournament, but has been more shaky of late with a 2-3 record in their last five games. In the metrics, TCU is 40th in the NET and 31st in KenPom. The Horned Frogs excel more on offense this season, scoring 80.4 points per game, but are still relatively balanced at 31st in adjusted offense at 116.4 and 35th in adjusted defense at 98.8. Three players average over double digits with Emanuel Miller leading the way at 16 points per game. These two teams have not met since TCU upset Houston, so the Cougars have been waiting for revenge. TCU just beat Oklahoma in a relatively close game, while Houston has been able to rest. This is a prime spot for the Cougars to take them over the Horned Frogs. This spread is big, but the Cougars are that good and should get a win in a big time revenge spot to advance in the Big 12 Tournament.
Pick: Houston -11
Providence vs #8 Creighton (-8): Providence beat Creighton in their last matchup at home in overtime, and now the Blue Jays want revenge. Creighton has played very well to close out the season, with a 4-1 record in their last five games. Creighton is 11th in the NET and 9th overall in KenPom. They are also 11th in adjusted offense at 121 and are 22nd in adjusted defense at 97 in KenPom. They are also scoring 80.8 points per game on offense with four different Blue Jays scoring over double digits and three of those players averaging at least 17 points per game with Baylor Scheierman leading the way at 18.5 points per game. Providence has had to deal with the loss of their best player Bryce Hopkins for the year when he tore his ACL earlier this season, but they have recovered well enough and are still projected to be in the tournament, but on the bubble. They have not played well recently, going 2-3 in their last five games. The metrics don’t love the Friars, ranking 63 in the NET and 59 in KenPom. The Friars have also played very well on defense this season, allowing 68.5 points per game and ranking 17th in adjusted defense in KenPom at 96. On offense, with Bryce Hopkins out only two players are averaging over double digits with Devin Carter leading the way with 19.4 points per game. Creighton is the better team in this matchup and is going to be ready for revenge. Providence is a good team, but they just don’t have the depth to compete with Creighton consistently in this game. Providence is going to have the fan advantage in this game and that is going to help to a certain extent. Still, Creighton should win this game. The game will be close in the first half, but the Blue Jays’ talent will win out and they should pull away and cover this spread in the second half.
Pick: Creighton -8
Colorado State vs #23 Nevada (-2.5): The Mountain West might be the most fun conference in college basketball. There is a possibility the conference gets six or even seven teams in the NCAA Tournament and these are two teams that are safely in the tournament. Nevada is arguably the hottest team in the conference after Utah State and they have won seven in a row. The Wolfpack are 31st in the NET and 34th in KenPom overall. They have excelled the most on defense, allowing 66.5 points per game and they are 31st in adjusted defense at 98.4. Three different players also average over double digits with Jarod Lucas leading the way with 17.8 points per game. Colorado State comes into the game after winning three straight and after losing three straight before that. The Rams won their first matchup in the Mountain West Tournament against San Jose State. They are 36th in the NET and 37th in KenPom. The Rams have also been a balanced team, allowing 67.9 points per game, but also four players average over double digits with Isaiah Stevens being a star, leading the team in scoring at 16.7 points per game and in assists at 7.1. This game is going to be close just because that’s how most of these games in the Mountain West have been. However, the Wolfpack are the better team and should win this game and cover in Las Vegas at the tournament.
Pick: Nevada -2.5
