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Best Ball Stock Report Week 10

Investment: $1,641                                                                   Projection: $1,423.29

My projection for profit has decreased from last week, and I am now projected to advance less than 16.67% of my teams for the first time all season. The percentage next to the players’ name is the % owned across my entire best ball portfolio. 8.33% would be the benchmark for average owned (1/12 = 8.33). 

Hits:

Jaylen Warren (21%): Warren had his first 100-yard game of his career this past week against Green Bay. With only one less carry than Najee Harris, it seems Pittsburgh is content keeping these two backs in a committee. If Pittsburgh hadn’t spent a first rounder on Najee, I am almost certain Warren would’ve been anointed the starter by now. 

Trey McBride (20%): the Mackey Award winner continues to impress as he was Kyler Murray’s go-to receiver on Sunday home against Atlanta. McBride, running an insane number of routes for a TE, turned a team-high 9 targets into 8 receptions for 131 yards. Arizona doesn’t ask him to stay in and block all that much, which significantly boosts his number of targets. Even on teams where he hasn’t outscored my TE1, he has scored enough recently to accumulate points for my Flex position.  

Keenan Allen (14%) & Amon-Ra St. Brown (12%): the Chargers & Lions shootout did not disappoint this week as the red-hot Lions squeaked out a 41 to 38 victory. ARSB shined with 156 yards and a score and on the other side Keenan produced 175 yards with 2 TDs. This two are locked and loaded as WR1s for their respective teams as both should see an absurd amount of targets the rest of the season. 

TJ Hockenson (9%) & Ty Chandler (14%): TJ Hock is dominating first read targets in Minnesota as the connection between him and Dobbs have blossomed over the last two weeks. With the imminent return of Justin Jefferson, it will be interesting to see how much of a hit his target rate gets. Mattison left the game early with a concussion and this diminutive RB out of UNC dominated snaps and found the endzone for the first time all season. If Mattison were to sit this week and Chandler plays well in his place, there would be no reason to go back to Mattison. 

Chris Olave (6%): commonly drafted amongst the likes of Tee Higgins and Devonta Smith, I was underweight on Olave throughout all of best ball summer. With Derrick Carr looking like a replacement level NFL QB, we have yet to see a huge game from Olave this season. With the Saints heading into their bye week, a lot would have to go right for Olave to pay off his ADP. 

Misses:

Mac Jones (12%) & Tyquan Thortnon (16%) – Mac was pulled, yes again, in the fourth quarter when the Patriots needed just a score for the victory. Bill Belicheck was non-committal about who his starting QB would be coming out of their upcoming bye. I strongly believe we will see a change at QB as the Patriots have an extra week to prepare for their next opponent. The former second round draft pick, Tyquan Thortnon, was a favorite late round pick of mine as I did not believe in the rest of the Patriots’ WR corps. I was half right. His route running skills are garbage and his QB situation is just as bad. 

Tyler Allgeier (16%) – Allgeier joins the long list of disappointing Atlanta Falcons’ playmakers. If you were to tell me there is a more deserving coach to get fired than Arthur Smith, I would have to call you a liar. The talented RB has scored above 12 fantasy points only twice all season. The Falcons have a lot to correct heading into their bye week. One thing on their side is their schedule. Of their remaining 6 games, they play 0 teams above .500. 

Christian Watson (8%) – we knew we would see some TD regression from last season, but this second year WR has BUST with a capital B written all over him. He has been outscored, by more than double, by the other two GB WRs so far this season. Both of which were drafted WAY later. Let that sink in. 

CJ Stroud (5%) – CJ Stroud followed up his NFL record breaking performance, by besting Joe Burrow in Cincinnati this past Sunday WITHOUT the services of #1 WR Nico Collins. The rookie signal caller has shown no signs of slowing down. He has paired elite efficiency with high passing volume. My other rookie QB exposure was 8% for Anthony Richardson and 2% for Bryce Young. CJ Stroud not only is the heavy favorite for offensive Rookie of the year, but he has the 8th best odds for MVP of the league. WHATTTTTTTTTTTT. 

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