Dave Gloeckner 
Happy Cinco De Mayo to everyone here at Win Daily. The month of May has been up and down so far for our bets. In the MLB, there has been plenty of ups this month as we saw the A’s rack up 20 runs yesterday pushing them to 0.500 on the season. And the Phillies continue their hot play scoring 14 runs last night without their star SS Trea Turner (on the 10 day IL). Philadelphia now owns the best record in baseball and are in first place in the NL East for the first time in 2 years. Last but not least are the Twins, who have now won 12 games in a row after beating Boston yesterday by a score of 3-1.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
DETROIT TIGERS +110 at NEW YORK YANKEES
The Yankees are looking to complete a sweep today of the Detroit Tigers. They’ve taken the first two games of the series with timely hitting and great starting pitching. But today, they face the Tigers ace in SP Tarik Skubal. The Tigers are 5-1 in games that Skubal has started. And they’ve yet to be swept this year. On the other hand, the Yankees are just 2-5 in games that SP Nestor Cortes has started. So we’ll take the plus number today and back the team from the Motor City to come out of NY with a win.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS -140 vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS
The Angels are once again submarining into the bottom of the AL West. What started off as a somewhat promising season has now turned to what everyone expected. The Angels lost their star OF, Mike Trout, earlier in the week to injury. And since then they’ve lost three of their last four games. What is going against them today is they face the 1st place team in the AL Central. But also hurting them are trends, which show they are 2-11 in day games and just 1-4 on Sunday’s. On the other side, Cleveland has a 9-3 record in day games. Plus, Angels SP Griffin Canning has a 7.45 ERA and hasn’t made in through the 6th inning in any of his starts.
DOG OF THE DAY: KANSAS CITY ROYALS +115 vs TEXAS RANGERS
The Rangers are coming off a 15-4 win over the Royals yesterday. It was their highest output of the season and they did it without hitting a home run. It was quite an impressive performance as they put together 17 hits. But that was yesterday and the Royals are chomping to get out on the field and erase that memory. And here’s betting they do as KC is 8-4 as a home dog this season. They are also rolling out Daniel Lynch for his first start of the season. He’s the unknown here as he owns a career ERA near 5.00. But the Rangers have the 4th highest K rate against LHP’s and are in the bottom half of the league in ISO, wRC+ and wOBA against lefties.
PLAYER PROPS
TBD
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 10.
Top Pitchers to Target:
TARIK SKUBAL ($10,200 DK):
The Detroit LHP continues to rack up wins and put together a case for AL Cy Young. After his latest start against the Royals, he’s 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA. The latter is good for 6th best in the MLB. Today he faces the Yankees who hit the power off switch when facing LHPs. Against southpaws, they are 19th in batting average, 27th in slugging, and 27th in ISO. And while Skubal has been good anywhere, he’s lights out on the road as he boasts a 0.00 ERA and 2-0 record away from Detroit.
JOE RYAN ($8900 DK):
Winners of 12 straight games, the Twins turn to one of their prized SP’s today in Joe Ryan. One of the reasons I like Ryan today is that his 3.38 ERA is met with a 2.80 FIP. As good as he’s pitched of late (2 straight QS’s), he still in line for positive regression. And the second reason to put the Twins starter in your player pool is his 29.5% K Rate. When you pair that with Boston’s 26% K rate, 4th highest in baseball, we have potential for a high strikeout game as well.
LUIS SEVERINO ($8200 DK):
Ever since a disastrous first start, Severino has pitched great for the Mets. He allowed 11 hits in that first outing, and has surrendered just 15 hits since in 28 innings of work. In fact, he took a no hitter into the 8th inning in his last start against Chicago. So he’s trending upwards and pitching spectacularly. Today he gets the Rays, who he saw plenty when pitching for the other New York team. The Rays have the 7th highest K Rate (24.2%) and have scored the 19th most runs in the league. The offense isn’t clicking as designed which makes this a good opportunity for Severino to continue his hot streak.
Value Pitchers to Target:
MACKENZIE GORE ($7900 DK)
The Nationals SP comes into today’s outing with three straight losses. But he’s allowed just 6 runs in those three starts and his offense has mustered together just 5 total runs for him. The key to Gore’s game is typically the strike outs as he owns a 29% K rate. But what’s been ailing him, and sure to change at some point, is the 0.396 BABIP. While Toronto has big names in their lineup, they are just 26th in the MLB in runs scored and 24th in batting average.
BAILEY FALTER ($6000 DK)
Falter has pitched reasonably well for the Pirates this season. But he’s had some good fortune as his BABIP is just 0.200. So even as I see negative regression ahead for Falter, I just like this price point and matchup too much. The Rockies have scored just 3 runs in their series with the Pirates this weekend. And SP Jared Jones is coming off a 7 inning shutout performance where he allowed just 1 hit and struck out 10. On the season, Colorado is 27th in runs scored, 27th in homers and have the 2nd highest K rate. They’re a team to attack and at $6K we have a reasonable chance at a 2.5x to 3x return today with Falter.
Top Stacks to Target:
MARINERS:
The Mariners are looking to win their series with Houston. And they face SP Hunter Brown who has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year (9.78 ERA). I’m going to look at Josh Rojas who is batting 0.344 with 2 homers in his past 11 games. I will also look at other hitters near the top of their lineup such as Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, Cal Raleigh and Ty France.
GUARDIANS:
The Guardians offense has a favorable matchup today against the Los Angeles Angels. We spoke about Angels SP Griffin Canning and his 7.50 ERA. The hottest hitter on Cleveland right now is Will Brennan who is batting 0.333 with 3 homers in his past 11 games. I’ll also Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, Andres Jimenez and Ramon Laureno (7-17 with 3 homers off Canning).
RANGERS:
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