brgrewe@gmail.com 
My oh my, football is finally here! It’s NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:
- High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
- VALUE PLAYS
- Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
- Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.
In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.
Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.
If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
- The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
- Chalk Talk: Marquez Callaway is likely to be 50% owned in cash games (if not more)… I’m OKAY if you want to just take that freesquare, but how the hell is a guy 50% owned just off of a nice training camp, lol.
- Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
- AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
- I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!
NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)
A little too expensive on FanDuel with a full slate of games, but it’s hard not to love Kyler Murray in a projected shootout with a total currently sitting at 52.5 points (highest on the slate). Murray gets it done with both his legs and his passing ability (we sure hope this offense improved over the off-season) and has an incredible matchup against a Titans’ defense that ranked third to last in pass defense DVOA.
We do not need to dive into actual metrics and AETY Model analysis to support Kyler Murray being in play.
Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
No lies, Russell Wilson is by far my favorite play on this slate (GPP and Cash). This offense was a massive let down towards the end of last season and the NFL DFS public loves to have a long memory. With the acquisition of linemen, Gabe Jackson, I expect a significant bump up in the overall play in this Seattle offensive line.
The total in this matchup with the Colts against a sub-par secondary that Russ should carve, currently sits at 49 points (opened at 52). The AETY Model absolutely loves Russel in this spot projecting him for 277 passing yards and just about two touchdowns (in addition to some rushing upside). That is plentiful for a cash game lineup.
Jalen Hurts ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD)
The AETY Model absolutely loves Jalen Hurts in Atlanta this week (current total of 48.5 points) projecting him for 251 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and just about 40 rushing yards. That added bonus with the legs is exactly what gives Hurts a nod for our cash game lineups. In addition, our boy Stoweby is a defensive scheme genius and is calling for Dean Pees’ new Atlanta defense to bring a lot of defensive-back blitzing to the table this year… Can you say Jalen Hurts naked-bootleg touchdown run?
Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($9,100 DK / $9,400 FD)
It’s the feature back in one of the best outside-zone run scheme offenses in the NFL who the AETY Model projects to rush for over 110 yards and have 20+ yards receiving… that’s a monster game with or without a touchdown. Cincinnati ‘s run defense was quite suspect last year (21st in run defense DVOA) and likely got worse over the off-season. It’s all systems go if you want to pay up for a stud RB that’s not named Christian McCaffrey.
James Robinson ($6,400 DK / $5,900 FD)
A 3-down back against the nut-worst run defense (and overall defense) in the NFL. On FanDuel, Robinson should be a stone-cold lock at that price and he’s more than cash viable on DraftKings.
Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)
I’m only really interested to play Mixon in cash on DraftKings but he’s certainly in play on FanDuel as well. Mixon may very well lead this slate in touches and that’s hard to ignore at this low DraftKings price-tag for my cash game build.
Antonio Gibson ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
Way too cheap on DraftKings for “Christian McCaffrey Jr.” who’s supposedly going to be the three down back we all saw signs of in 2020. This kid is super-talented and should have a 15+ fantasy-point outing (over 2.5x value) against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and should struggle in all aspects outside of the pass-rush again in 2021.
Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Mike Davis, Chase Edmonds (DK Only)
NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers
*All of these superstars at the top of the salary chain are in play and qualify as cash viable (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins)
Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD)
Great price, tough matchup. Stefon Diggs is arguably the best route runner in the NFL in a pass-happy, up-tempo offense and one of the only pass-catchers in the AETY Model database that projects for a 30% target share on a weekly basis. The expected volume outweighs any matchup concerns I’ll have with Stefon Diggs at these price-points.
DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)
ALL THE WAY IN on DK Metcalf this week going up against aging Xavier Rhodes and T.J. Carrie. The AETY Model absolutely loves Russell Wilson and this Seattle passing attack, so let’s capitalize on one of the best talents in the NFL with Metcalf. He will score a touchdown or two in this matchup and will certainly be the headline of my GPP article this weekend.
Corey Davis ($4,900 DK / $5,800 FD)
With the player pool I’m recommending at the running-back position, it’s going to be tough to play more than one of these top-tier wideouts, so I’m going to buy into the early chemistry between rookie Zach Wilson and his number-one receiver, Corey Davis. Look for this new passing attack to take advantage of rookie, Jaycee Horn and average cover-corner, Donte Jackson.
Jerry Jeudy ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
Way too cheap for one of the best young route runners who’s projected to lead his team in targets. I don’t love this Broncos offense, but they will be plenty efficient to put Jeudy in a position to hit over 2.5x value (currently projected for 13.50 DraftKings NFL DFS points).
Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
Higgins is likely going to lead this slate in wide receiving ownership outside of Marquez Callaway and I’m fine if you want to eat that chalk in a game that is projected to be high in pace with sub-par defensive showings. I don’t love this spot for Higgins as much as the public does (I honestly prefer Tyler Boyd), but at this ownership, Higgins won’t make or break your cash lineup’s ability to find the pay-line.
Terrance Marshall ($3,000 DK / $4,900 FD)
Stone-cold lock for me on DraftKings. Sam Darnold has a strong history of abusing slot receivers with targets and the rookie from LSU is likely the best slot receiver Darnold will have in his NFL career. This is an incredible matchup for Marshall and the AETY Model has no doubt that Marshall gets over 2.5x value in his NFL debut.
Honorable Mention: Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway, Michael Pittman Jr.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD)
It’s Travis Kelce, do we need to say more? I really want to make it a priority to get one share of a Kansas City Chief contributor in my cash build and I can’t think of a safer play for that narrative than Travis Kelce. Don’t get too cute, play him or eat the chalk-value with the player below.
Kyle Pitts ($4,400 DK / $6,000 FD)
Take the savings on DraftKings if you cannot afford Kelce. I know we’ve never seen him play a full NFL game yet, but like Terrance Marshall, the price is just too good to pass up. With his high projected ownership, we do not need a whole lot from Kyle Pitts.
Defense / Special Teams
I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:
New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Washington Football Team
Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
Good luck to all!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
