MLBMA Daily Notes 6.7.19 LAD at SF

152

OFFENSE

LAD Away, 2019 (Last 14 Days)

• 256 PA
• .288/.365/.495 Triple Slash
• .861 OPS
• .207 ISO
• .361 wOBA
• 125 wRC+
• 16.8% K Rate
• 9.8% BB Rate
• 40.5% Hard Hit Rate

SF vs LHP, 2019

• 720 PA
• .220/.285/.336 Triple Slash
• .620 OPS
• .116 ISO
• .268 wOBA
• 66 wRC+
• 24.3% K Rate
• 36.9% Hard Hit Rate

STARTING PITCHING

Clayton Kershaw, 2019 (8 Games Started)

• 52.0 IP
• 49 K : 9 BB
• 23.8% K Rate
• 3.29 ERA / 3.53 FIP / 3.34 xFIP
• 1.10 WHIP
• .245/.278/.434 Triple Slash Allowed
• .712 OPSA
• .299 wOBAA
• 7.8% Barrel Rate
• 1st TTO – 2.57 ERA
• 2nd TTO – 3.00 ERA
• 3rd TTO – 3.18 ERA

Drew Pomeranz, 2019 (10 Games Started)

• 39.0 IP
• 8.08 ERA / 6.46 FIP / 4.86 xFIP
• 1.87 WHIP
• 11.1% BB Rate
• .317/.404/.585 Triple Slash Allowed
• .989 OPSA
• .414 wOBAA
• 11 HR Allowed
• 9.8% Barrel Rate
• 1st TTO – 6.00 ERA
• 2nd TTO – 12.86 ERA
• Very poor Statcast data (below)

BULLPENS LAST 10 DAYS

Team	AVG	WHIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
Dodgers	0.135	0.87	3.00	4.15	5.33	4.76
Giants	0.241	1.21	2.61	4.36	4.24	3.80

THE PLAY: LAD ML

LAD has a pretty clear three-phase edge in this one, and it could easily get out of hand for the Giants. Ever the conservative player, I will continue to lay the chalk but there’s more than enough evidence to support either the F5 -0.5 or -1.5 ML.

Sometimes, a preferred strategy of mine is to take both RL bets straight, and then parlay the ML with another favorite on the board that night. Stay tuned for pick number two.

Let’s get it.