Joey Ikez 
Investment: $1,641 Projection: $1,984.62
My projection for profit has decreased from last week, from +884.05 to +343.62 on Draft Kings. I am in 3rd or 4th place on a lot of teams, so hopefully I can jump into the top 2 over the next couple of weeks. Just a reminder, how I calculate being overweight and underweight on players is 1/12 = 8.33%. 12 is the number of teams that participate in best ball drafts.
Winners:
AJ Brown (16%)- after their little sideline spat AJ Brown has erupted for two straight weeks. As much as I like Devonta Smith, AJ is still the Alpha Dog in Philly. He leads the NFL in first read targets.
David Montgomery (13%) – 32 totes for a Buck 21 with 3 tiddies. To quote Oliver Twist, “Please, sir, I want some more.” If drafters knew Montgomery would be getting this kind of usage, he would have been a 3rd round pick and Gibbs would’ve been taken in the 8th and not the other way around.
Isiah Pacheco (12%) – the Rutgers alum is the first RB to go for over 100 yards against the stout Jets D. Thanks in huge part to his 48-yard TD run, he just might be hitting his stride heading into Week 5 as he was eased into action to start the season coming off two offseason surgeries.
Stefon Diggs (9%) – the Bills showed the world this last week who the kings of the AFC East are. The division title still goes through Buffalo. Diggs stepped up this week with a HUGE line of 120 with 3 TDs. Superstars show up for big games and Diggs has shown time and time again he is just that.
Javonte Williams (1%) – it’s a lot to ask for a RB to come back just 9 months after tearing two knee ligaments. The science and data show that RBs don’t get back to form until much later. I mainly avoided him in best ball drafts. Banged up his hip but might be able to play this week against the Jets. Preseason darling Jaleel McLaughlin was a top waiver add this week, further crowding the Denver backfield.
Losers:
Geno Smith (20%) & JSN (10%)- hopefully Seattle QB and WRs start producing statistically speaking coming out of their Week 5 bye. Although Seattle sits at 3-1 through the first 4 weeks Geno barely has one useable week. And don’t get me started with JSN who has 3 catches for 5 yards!?!?! Seattle needs to start utilizing his speed and shiftiness more optimally and start getting this speedster more downfield targets.
Quentin Johnston (13%)- this first round rookie WR was SUPPOSED to be the #3 WR in LA. Many drafted him as such this summer. Now we get a Mike Williams injury and Quentin draws 3 targets with 1 catch for 18 yards. His route participation did increase from 18% the first 3 weeks to 71% in Week 4. The only thing Johnston owners can hope for is that he improves and learns the offense as the season progresses and he peaks when it matters most in playoff time.
Pat Freiermuth (11%) – how has the Steelers OC Matt Canada managed to keep his job this long? They have looked anemic the first four weeks of the season. Big Pat has been dropped in many season long leagues as Pittsburgh craters to the league’s worst offense.
Kyle Pitts (9%) – is this an Arthur Smith problem or a Kyle Pitts problem? I’m almost to the point where I’m done making excuses for this guy. As Bill Parcells says, “You are what your record says you are.” And Kyle Pitts record is bad.
Daniel Jones (9%) & Darren Waller (7%) – Giants are tied with the Bengals for the lowest yards per play. The Giants play action fakes are MUCH LESS effective without Saquon and their pass blocking has been atrocious. Sacked an astonishing 11 times on MNF! Waller’s stock was the biggest TE mover throughout the summer, finishing in August drafted regularly in rounds 4 or 5. I have zero Round 5 Waller because I thought that price was too expensive. On the majority of teams I drafted Jones I paired him with Waller and those teams might be dead anyway. That is the only positive I can take away from this paragraph.
CMC (6%)- why do I only have 6% CMC? Because I drew the lowest % of 3rd pick in my 150 best ball drafts. I never drafted him ahead of Jefferson or Chase. And by the looks of Joe Burrow that appears to be a mistake. CMC erupts for 177 yards with 4 TDs. If you were atop the leaderboards in DFS this last week he was a must have. This 49ers offense looks like the best it’s been since the Steve Young days, as Brock Purdy improves to 9-0 as a starter in the regular season.
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