Dave Gloeckner 
It’s a Sunday Funday here at Win Daily Sports. We saw a crazy day of baseball on Saturday as we witnessed the first ever walk off pitch violation in Colorado. You hate to see it but those are the rules. Speaking of things you don’t hate to see, if you tailed my bets yesterday then you saw a nice +4.0 unit profit as my MLB bets went 4-0. And that’s coming off a 2-0 day from my article on Thursday. So let’s see if we can keep that momentum going into the final day of a good week.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
ATLANTA BRAVES +105 at NEW YORK YANKEES
For all the bashing that New York has done this season, ranking 2nd in runs scored and 2nd in home runs, they have pedestrian numbers versus LHP’s. They are batting just 0.234 against LHP’s (20th) and they have a 0.144 ISO (16th) and 0.702 OPS (15th). And today they’re facing one of the better LHP’s in baseball in Max Fried. The Braves SP has a 2.00 ERA over his past 10 starts. In that stretch, he’s had four starts of at least 7 innings pitched with 0 ER’s. On the flip side, Atlanta hits lefties very well ranking 5th in batting average, 7th in OPS and 5th in ISO. Today, they face Nestor Cortes, a LHP, who has been good at home but is susceptible to fly balls and home runs. I look for the Braves to attack Cortes early and try to get the ball in the air and over the fence. This just lines up as a good matchup for Atlanta and I’ll take the underdog to take the rubber game in their series in NY.
MINNESOTA TWINS -185 at OAKLAND A’s
The Twins have the hottest offense in baseball posting a 0.320 batting average and 0.960 OPS over the past 10 days. That has propelled them to a 7-3 record in that stretch and moved them up to 2nd in the AL Central. Today they hand the ball to Pablo Lopez who has struggled by his standards. But his advanced metrics show positive regression is ahead. His 5.63 ERA is met with a 3.38 SIERA and 3.49 xFIP. So better days are ahead and we’ll back the Twins hot offense and the projected positive form from Lopez to win the getaway game in Oakland today.
DOG OF THE DAY: BALTIMORE ORIOLES +100 at HOUSTON ASTROS
The Orioles had an impressive streak of not being swept that ultimately came to an end earlier in the season when they lost all three games of a series to the St Louis Cardinals. Considering they hadn’t been swept for almost 3 years, I’m banking they won’t let it happen twice in 2 months. The pitching matchup today does favor Houston, but Framber Valdez has not been his stellar self this year, most notably at home where he’s 2-2 with a 4.17 ERA.
PLAYER PROPS
WILL POST BY 12PM
TBD
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
DFS – 1:35PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 1:35pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 9.
Top Pitchers to Target:
PAUL SKENES ($10,000 DK):
We said it was coming and today marks that moment. Specifically, Paul Skenes has reached the 5 digit salary range for the first time in his career. And there’s likely no going back for many years to come. The Pirates phenom once again pitched a gem in his last start, going 6 innings with just 1 ER in a win against the Reds. The Pirates are now 6-1 in games started by Skenes. And the former #1 pick has a 4-0 record with a 2.29 ERA in those seven games. We saw Jared Jones struggle early against Tampa yesterday, but then right the ship and put in a dominating performance. I expect the same today as the Rays have a top seven K rate and are in the bottom 1/3rd of the league in batting (23rd), wOBA (25th) and ISO (29th).
NICK LODOLO ($9200 DK):
The Reds LHP is on an impressive streak, winning the last 5 games he’s started. And that was after a two-week stint on the IL. If not for those missed games, including another 2-week stretch at the start of the season, we could be looking at the MLB wins leader. That is how good he’s been this year and I expect that to continue today at home against Boston. The main reason for that is because the Red Sox have the highest K rate in baseball against LHP’s, 28.5%. And then factor in Lodolo’s 2.07 ERA in his past 5 starts, while posting a 28.4% K rate himself, and you have potential for a big game from the Reds lefty.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: LOGAN WEBB ($9000 DK), MAX SCHERZER ($8500 DK), BRYCE MILLER ($8800 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
REESE OLSON ($6500 DK)
We get a cheap price on a reliable pitcher who is facing the White Sox. That screams value to me, though it comes with some risk. But the good news is, Olson is coming off his best game of the year when he shut out the Atlanta Braves over 6 innings while also striking out 8 batters. So confidence should be high coming into today against a team that is last in the MLB in batting, wOBA, and wRC+.
HONORABLE MENTION: JONATHAN CANNON ($6200 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
ORIOLES:
The Orioles have lost the first two games in their weekend series with Houston. They scored 11 runs in the opener but were then shutdown by Ronel Blanco in yesterday’s affair, scoring just 1 run. They’ve had 6 games this year scoring 1 run or less and followed that up with an average of 5.7 runs per game in their next outing. So I expect the bats to wake up today and attack Framber Valdez, who has a 4.17 ERA at home and has allowed five of his six long balls while pitching in Houston. I’ll look to stack Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays, Cedric Mullens and Jordan Westburg.
PIRATES:
The Pirates like to hit when Paul Skenes is on the mound. They’ve scored 51 runs in his 7 starts which is good for a 7.3 runs/game average. And today they get to face Aaron Civale who has a 5.43 ERA, which balloons to 6.75 on the road. I’ll look at a stack circled around Oneil Cruz followed by Nick Gonzales, Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen.
Other Stacks to Consider: SEATTLE MARINERS, TEXAS RANGERS, TORONTO BLUE JAYS
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